|Since my last post, Vuong has been turfed by the Liberals. If you told me in July that Spadina Fort York was the NDP’s best shot at a Toronto seat, I would have told you to put down the orange Koolaid. Welp. While last minute, the the Vuong controversy still garnered front page news and will likely sway enough voters to Di Pasquale to overtake the advanced voting totals. The NDP wins this by a hair.|
|This is definitely a favourable riding for the Liberals, but not favourable enough to accidently elect someone who won't even be a a Liberal MP. This isn't what I'd call a low-information riding. This will go NDP, though it will be closer than it has any right to be.|
|Vuong will still win this. He will join the legislature as a independent, initially at least. The voters in this hi-rise heavy region are, by and large, not invested in the localities off neighbourhood politics to care (or even, in many cases, to be aware!) of the financial and physical allegations against the NDP candidate. Somewhere, Joe Cressy and Mike Layton are crying at their misfortune of not running this year.|
|The Liberals have cut ties with Vuong: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/kevin-vuong-liberal-spadina-fort-york-1.6181154. Given how late in the campaign that this news is breaking, it's highly likely he's still going to win, but he'd be sitting as an independent if he does in fact do so. Looks like it won't be a 416 Liberal sweep after all, but I still predict the CPC and NDP will be shut out of Toronto-proper.|
|My spidey sense tells me Kevin Vuong could pull this off and I otherwise believe Chris H's analysis is sound. |
I originally lived in the riding (or rather, the southern part of the former Trinity--Spadina) when I moved from Windsor in 2003 and over time, I quickly learned that before the usage of today's data mining tools (i.e. Liberalist/CIMS/NDP Vote), any attempt to guess how anyone fared just after the advanced polls was anecdotal at best, even if one had access to internal polling.
The remaining committed and possible Liberal voters who have left it until Monday to make their decision certainly will not all pull a collective Costanza and vote for the NDP. This will ultimately be splintered.
||Hammer (The Other One)|
|This is unprecedented territory, so I can’t say with full certainty who will be the MP come Monday night, other than it obviously not being a member of the Liberal caucus. Regarding advanced ballots, I think one thing going for the NDP is that in my experience advanced ballots tend to skew older, and older populations are more likely to vote Liberal and Conservative, meaning that the remaining voters are younger and have heard the news on social media about Kevin Vuong and will likely vote NDP. One thing working against the NDP is that Spadina Fort York, to my knowledge, has the smallest NDP ‘base’ and riding association of the downtown ridings. They will have to find the resources to turn out the vote under a super tight timeline.|
|The Liberal candidate's name is still on the ballot, which means he is going to win. Liberals voters have shown clearly that they do not care about sexual assault allegations. They will brush it off and vote Liberal.|
|Live by the millennial condo bloc, die by the millennial condo bloc. This demographic wants authenticity above all else. Had an affair? None of my business. Did drugs in university? Who cares. But Vuong's inexplicable failure to disclose a criminal charge, when his image is based on being a goody two-shoes who meets the Queen and serves in the navy, will end his political career before it starts. That the charge in question is sexual assault is the cherry on top of this sh!t sundae.|
The NDP is fired up, the Libs no longer have a candidate, and a material number of Conservatives and Greens will vote strategically.
|Based on the Elections Canada estimate of 13928 votes cast at the advance polls, and assuming an average number of mail-in votes (roughly 700,000 / 338 = 2071), and assuming voting patterns from 2019, Vuong could have a 5700 vote lead going into Monday's vote.|
If we distribute the all remaining votes according to the 2019 percentages without Liberal votes, the NDP candidate would win by about 3000 votes over the Conservatives.
It would take at least 40% of the remaining Liberal voters from 2019 to vote for Vuong on Monday to give him a victory. Not likely unless the Liberal base in Spadina-Fort York is truly robotic in their preference.
|My prediction of a possible Lib sweep through 416 and Peel in another posting came before I learned of Vuong legal troubles. This yet another Lib personnel problem, one of surprisingly many for them in this campaign, will be downplayed in the mainstream media for its outside impact, but is well known in this riding. Adam Vaughn, no matter how rude he might be perceived by many, should have run again and would have won here for the Libs, but with Libs distancing from Vuong now, not too many will vote for an 'unofficial' Lib. Cons are too weak here, and this is now an unexpected Lib gift to the NDP, essentially.|
|The advance polls won't be enough for him to win now that he's been dropped. I see a very high chance of an NDP pick up.|
|Now that he's been kicked out of the Liberal Party days before the election, I think Kevin Vuong is still going to take this, unfortunately. People have already or will vote for him in an attempt to vote for the Liberal party. Ballots are already printed so he'll still show as a Liberal. He should resign immediately if elected, but doesn't seem like someone who will.|
|On sous-estime l'ignorance des électeurs et leur manque flagrant d'information quand vient le temps de voter. Ce candidat libéral, même s'il n'est plus libéral, l'emportera. La marge de victoire sera plus mince, mais il partait avec une telle avance, qu'il ne sera pas rattrapé.|
|This was a safe Liberal seat until news of their candidate Vuong's potential (dropped) sexual assault charges and alleged misconduct. How he is still a Liberal candidate after all this is a mystery. But unless the Libs got tons of advance votes in this riding (internal polling says they didn't), and a lot of voters somehow fail to see/hear this news, he's a dead duck.|
With Vaughn gone for the Libs, this being a traditionally strong NDP riding both federally (Olivia Chow) and provincially, and now these revelations about Vuong, this seat should go back to the Dippers.
|NDP win by about 5 points. |
I'm sure when counting advanced polls the Liberal candidate is the lead.
However, the Vuong situation will be in the news all weekend. I'm sure enough Liberal-NDP swing voters will be aware of the situation and vote accordingly. Especially in an election where there is a notable lack of ‘ABC’ coalescing among progressive voters.
|He didn’t get enough advance poll votes to win after this.|
|A bombshell news story broke last night of Kevin Vuong's alleged misconduct with a woman. As of 3:30 pm EST on Friday, he is still the Liberal candidate. Do the Liberals turf him this weekend? Do most Liberal voters stay home, and will the NDP gain enough votes to get Norm Di Pasquale across the finish line? What happens if Vuong wins? The Liberals only need 15 or so seats to win a majority, and they can't afford to lose any more candidates. Can the party and voters overlook the allegations?|
||Physastr Master |
|Financial malpractice is par for the course among Liberals. Sexual assault isn’t. The NDP is the overwhelming second choice among Liberals, so given these allegations, I expect to see long-time Liberals praying this goes NDP just to avoid the embarrassment of having elected someone charged with sexual assault. The natural edge for the Liberals is big enough that if people aren’t paying attention Vuong might hold on, but I for one would like to imagine revelations like this are fatal for a campaign. I hope I’m not wrong|
|So the Liberal candidate has ‘paused’ their campaign. That's terrible news for the Liberals. But they're still probably going to win.|
While an NDP victory is looking likelier than at any point since Olivia Chow appeared on a ballot, we need to talk about three things:
- The fact that the Liberals have already banked thousands of votes through early voting and special balloting.
- The fact that, breaking just three days before an election, this scandal may not have time to fully permeate the electorate.
- The fact that a lot of people won't care. These are serious allegations, but you only need to spend a few minutes on Twitter to find out what a lot of people think about ‘mere’ allegations.
I don't doubt that this situation will dent the Liberal lead and make the seat more competitive. But bearing in mind the sheer number of ballots already in those boxes, the NDP would probably need to win the voting on election day by a margin of 20-30% or more in order to have a hope of winning the riding, and I have a hard time seeing that happening.
|The race here has taken a bizarre turn with news the liberal candidate Kevin Vuong had faced a sexual assault charge that was later dropped. you have to think he didn’t go thru much of a vetting process if any for this to have not come up before. He’s now been told to pause his campaign and its unclear if he’d be allowed to sit in the liberal caucus if elected. He was somewhat of an odd candidate from the start , unheard of yet given a plum riding in downtown Toronto without even having to face a nomination vs other potential candidates. So perhaps the ndp campaign in the riding has more of a shot now but still a long way back based on 2019 numbers. did hold the riding back in 2011 when Olivia Chow mp and hold the provincial riding.|
|Campaign Research just released an Ontario-only poll showing the Liberals with a huge 18% lead in Toronto proper. With a lead like that, none of the 416 ridings are at risk of flipping (even here with a lawsuit lobbed at the Lib candidate). This is also almost unchanged (well within the MoE) from the earlier Mainstreet GTA poll. Spadina-Fort York = Liberal hold. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1gPhJAfKBRyjFuqdZXPBE_KxOuT9qM4Mh/view|
|Even without Adam Vaughan, this riding is safe for the Liberals.|
|In an election with limited engagement Vuong's scandal hasn't appeared to cut through in the same way as the candidate in Vancouver Granville. That aside, the Liberal support in some of the condo areas is a bedrock, and should see Vuong safely through - he would likely have to get below 40% to lose barring a tight race, and I don't see that happening. And I'm not sure Vaughan had such a personal vote beyond the Liberals that the votes will shift massively away from the Liberals.|
|News just broke that the new LPC candidate here, Kevin Vuong, is facing a $1.5 million lawsuit, something to do with his mask-making business. Not good news, on top of that the youth vote seems to be moving away from the LPC and increasing for the CPC and NDP. I don't think this is the kind of riding where young voters are going to the Tories however.|
Still a slight advantage to the Liberals because redistribution was very kind to them, and the NDP has never done well with the condo vote. But I wouldn't count out the NDP.
|The Globe just published a scoop that the Liberal candidate is being sued over business dealings for his COVID mask company. It might give Vuong a bit of a hit, but it won't be enough for the NDP to flip the riding. The riding is the prime Liberal demo: young, slightly left-of-centre condo-dwellers who work in the knowledge or creative economies. It would take a massive plummet in the polls - see the 2011 LPC or 2018 LPO disasters - for the Grits to lose Spadina Fort York. The Liberals have taken a dip in recent polls, but they are no where close to the those recent nosedives.|
|I have to say the NDP major ground campaign in Downtown will be no help with this riding. They always struggled with Condos, The NDP blamed condos for the loss in 2004 in Trinity Spadina.|
And the condos have simply grown more and more. So what could work for the NDP in Davenport or Danforth, with get out the vote, won't won't be as effective old Trinity Spadina.
|I get that Vaughan not running makes this more competitive, but there's no way this riding is more NDP-friendly than Parkdale-High Park. Either make both TCTC or only Parkdale-High Park. I think this could be competitive, but unlike elsewhere in Ontario, I'm not there yet here. I'm comfortable with a Liberal hold here, but Parkdale-High Park should be TCTC.|
|A new Mainstreet GTA regional poll came out today with the Liberals at 50% in the 416, which re-confirms what the Mainstreet Spadina-Fort York riding poll said last week. Liberal hold with the only question being who finishes 2nd or 3rd. https://www.cp24.com/news/liberals-have-double-digit-lead-in-gta-as-campaign-enters-second-week-new-poll-suggests-1.5558077|
|Mainstreet Research riding poll|
|Even with Adam Vaughan's surprising retirement, this will be a Liberal win in September. I can see the NDP increasing their vote over 2019, but it won't be enough.|
|Adam Vaughan purposefully waited until the NDP acclaimed their candidate before announcing his retirement. This means the NDP is stuck with a no-hope Catholic School Trustee, rather than a Joe Cressy type with more profile. Smart politics ensures the Liberals keep this in the fold.|
|NDP raises toon much money from the Annex. No choice but to give it all they got with Adam Vaughan not running.|
TCTC for now. 2 weeks from now we will have a better picture.
|Adam Vaughan is not running again. The Liberals are expected to nominate entrepreneur and media personality Kevin Vuong, while the NDP nominated TCDSB trustee Norm Di Pasquale.|
The Liberals should still hold on to this seat, but it will be a tighter race than last time. If the NDP are polling above 20% in ON, then we can consider this TCTC.
|The insufferably obnoxious MP Adam Vaughan is not running again. This was Olivia Chow's old riding, so it does have an NDP appeal. I expect a strong NDP 2nd place showing, with the Liberals below 50%.|
|Adam Vaughan announced today that he will not run in the next election. The Liberals are probably still favoured here, but this could allow the NDP to narrow the gap.|
|Vaughn is a typical Trudeau-type progressivist agenda-pusher with a background in a sleazy individual dependency building urban political machine who likes distributing goodies much more than promoting freedom and ownership. He is surely well liked by the average folks in a CBC-listening multiethnic riding constituency, with enough support to offset the minority condo-loving professional constituency. While NDP vote will surely not align behind the Liberals in this election the way Green vote will (as I comment elsewhere), decisive Liberal push to the left makes it unlikely for most left voters to choose a challenger leftist party against a party in power in the urban ridings Liberals already hold. One reason the PM takes a chance on early election is the very fact that at least such urban constituencies, the backbone of Liberal support, are not endangered this year, so POLITICALLY speaking (not intellectually or economically speaking) such a move might be not dim at all for politicians like Trudeau and Vaughn.|
|Adam Vaughan is certainly the most partisan toxic MP in the Liberal caucus, possibly the most in the House of Commons. His recent admission that the Liberals have prioritized foreign real estate investors over Canadian families looking to buy a home ought to crash his support among renters in this riding. In practice, that is highly unlikely to happen though a strong NDP second place finish is in the cards.|
| Adam Vaughan is neither a good MP nor a very intelligent one, however, none of that matters in this riding, not only do the people like him, but also it's a riding that the Liberals will win with just about anyone. This may have been an NDP stronghold once, but that was in the 1980s, things are different now. Sure the NDP did win this in the 2000s when they experienced a resurgence and the Liberals were in a decline, but that was only because of Jack Layton, since his passing, Olivia Chow's electoral fortunes went down. The only question in this riding now is that will Adam get 60% of the vote or not.|
|The one thing Jagmeet's popularity (and O'Toole's lack thereof) guarantees is that Spadina-Fort York won't be at risk of a False Creekian 2nd place condo-Conservativism. So Adam Vaughan's greatest ‘threat’ remains that from the NDP. Note quotes.|
|Very safe riding for the governing party. They won this by a large margin in 2015 and 2019.|
Adam Vaughan is also a popular local politician.
|While this may be Olivia Chow's old stomping ground, the trajectory is all wrong for the NDP. In 2019, the Liberals got more than twice as many votes here as the NDP. Barring an absolutely seismic shift in the polls, there probably won't be any surprises on the lakeshore this time around.|
|This should be a safe Liberal seat. For a non-cabinet minister, Adam Vaughan has a high profile, certainly in the Toronto media market. The NDP has pockets of support in the less affluent Trinity-Bellwoods and David Crombie Park areas, but it won't be enough to pose a serious threat to the Liberals.|