|The openly gay, very outspoken Melissa Lantsman might seem a poorer fit for this riding than the calm, mild-mannered Peter Kent, but she is a media-savvy Millennial (she's worked in radio and tv) and hits all the right Conservative notes on Israel, freedom of expression, and cancel culture. She may not manage Kent-level margins but it shouldn't be close.|
|Thornhill is a unique place. Despite being surrounded by Liberal strongholds and sharing similar demographics (except for religion), it has become one of the safest Conservative ridings in Ontario and probably the safest urban or suburban riding outside of the Prairies for them. There's no reason why that won't continue in this open seat, especially in light of the recent fighting between Israel and Palestine. Thornhill is extremely pro-Israel and will go to their strongest voice of support - the tepid support from the Liberals and hostility from many in the NDP do not fly at all here.|
Even without Peter Kent, the Conservatives should continue to dominate among the Orthodox Jewish population, which makes up a good chunk of the riding. Regardless of what happens elsewhere in the GTA, there will continue to be a blue enclave on Yonge Street.
|Even with Peter Kent's retirement, this is a sure win for the CPC, and the safest CPC bet in the GTA.|
|Longtime incumbent Peter Kent is retiring, so in theory, this would become a competitive race.|
However, the Tories nominated quite possibly a future PM in Melissa Lantsman who is a massive asset for the party for a variety of reasons.
Thornhill is pretty reliably Conservative at the federal level and Lantsman defeated sitting MPP Gila Martow in the nomination by over 300 votes.
Liberal Gladstone is a nice fellow though.