|There's a perfect storm brewing near Fort Mac. Not only has the PPC apparently poached large parts of the local CPC and UPC parties (and won the endorsement of the outgoing Conservative MP), but Jason Kenney's recent announcements are going to rattle a lot of people.|
As of today, Alberta reports that only 55.5% of the folks aged 12+ in the municipality of Wood Buffalo (which basically coincides with the riding boundaries) have received two doses of vaccine, compared to 71.5% in the province at large. A majority of these folks are vaccinated, but plenty of them aren't, and I doubt it's down to shyness. These people are going to feel targeted by these restrictions and betrayed by one of Canada's most prominent Conservative premiers. It's not going to be pretty.
The PPC have a mountain to climb out here: it's not easy to overtake a party which routinely wins +70% of the vote in a riding. But in this specific election, on this specific issue, under these specific circumstances, the stars do appear dangerously close to alignment.
|Outgoing CPC MP David Yurdiga has endorsed Shawn McDonald of the PPC. Between that and the local CPC riding association's discontent with Goodridge being foisted upon them by the central party...the Conservatives will still win by a healthy margin. But I'll bet this is the PPC's best showing in Alberta, and that they'll be well into the double digits.|
|Illuminating the CPC ‘rank and file’ dilemma, it *might* seem as if what triggered Yurdiga's departure was dispute over mandatory vaccinations. Otherwise, on the face of things it might seem as if Fort Mac is the least likely N Alberta riding to put Maverick in 2nd--that is, if the dynamics that gave the Libs strong 2nds in recent times still pertain (they certainly didn't pertain in '19). Of course, Yurdiga's subtext suggests there might be considerable appetite for right-dissidence, anyway (if not winningly so)|
|It looked like all the incumbents in alberta were running for re election until David Yurdiga pulled out at the last minute . been replaced as cpc candidate by current alberta mla Laila Goodridge in what is a long time conservative riding.|
|This used the least Conservative-monolithic of the non-Edmonton/Calgary/Lethbridge/Banff seats in Alberta, but pipeline politics, and perhaps Newfoundlanders departing Fort McMurray in the wake of the oil bust, respectively boosted the CPC share and collapsed the Liberal share nearly to Crowfoot levels in 2019. I wouldn't bet on the CPC cresting 80% here though.|
|Rural Alberta seat so safe CPC for now unless Mavericks/PPC start making momentum.|
|Montreal West Island constituencies are generally reliably Liberal.|