Election Prediction Project

Vancouver Kingsway
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-16 23:30:20

Constituency Profile


Binda, Carson

Bremner, Virginia

Cariou, Kimball

Chishtie, Farrukh

Davies, Don

MacKenzie, Jeremy

Petersen, Donna


Don Davies

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



15.30 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Don Davies ** 2168049.10%
Tamara Taggart 1019423.10%
Helen Quan 880419.90%
Lawrence Taylor 26756.10%
Ian Torn 4271.00%
Kimball Cariou 2920.70%
Donna Petersen 910.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Don Davies ** 2076345.70%
Steven Kou 1262527.80%
Jojo Quimpo 953821.00%
Catherine Moore 14763.30%
Matt Kadioglu 4681.00%
Kimball Cariou 4451.00%
Donna Petersen 810.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 4411.21%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Vancouver Kingsway
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

08/09/21 Thomas K
The Liberals have tried desperately to flip this several times with ridiculous toxicity and mudslinging, but have failed each time. Safe NDP.--Davies will probably get north of 50% this time around; there are entire blocks where almost every house has an NDP lawn sign.
31/08/21 R.O.
Don Davies was first elected in 2008 , the riding had been liberal before he was mp although seems like a safe ndp riding this election.
25/08/21 A.S.
Don Davies' safety is curious in light of how, until his open-seat-fueled victory up the middle in 2008 (and really fueled by Dion-era fading-Liberal/rising-Con opposition split; he won with less share than Ian Waddell lost with in 2004), this would have been commonly seen as a serial strategic heartbreaker seat w/the NDP never *quite* able to overturn Chretien/Martin-era Grit supremacy. But once he got in, he stayed in and filled all crevasses with his support--and now, Vancouvers East & Kingsway are more electoral birds-of-a-feather than anyone could have imagined not so long ago. And thanks to the generic rightward Chinese-Canadian swing, the fatal ‘vote-splitting’ today is that btw/the Libs and the Cons--not, as once would have been scare-mongered, the Libs and the NDP. (And that's even somewhat the case now in the easterly parts of Vancouver East.)
04/08/21 Laurence Putnam
Remember all those last time who thought Tamara Taggart really stood a chance to wrest this away from Don Davies? Instead, all that she accomplished with her 2-1 loss was to offer some proof to the cynical that there is in fact a Liberal bias in the media.
While this riding isn't as safe as Vancouver East, Davies is facing no such high profile candidate this time and NDP fortunes are back on the rise. The NDP will hold this easily once again.
14/05/21 ME
Vancouver Kingsway is a safe NDP seat. 338 spent time in the riding and Don Davies is not going to lose...
06/08/21 Thomas K
It always makes for a very awkward campaign when the Liberals are trying to contest the NDP in a seat where the Conservatives aren't a factor. The vote-splitting arguments are moot and any kind of ideological rhetoric falls flat. Even with a popular news personality like Taggart, that political strategy is not going to cut it in a riding like this. Vancouver Kingsway will stay NDP for the foreseeable future.

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