Vaughan-Woodbridge

	Del Duca, Steven
	Fortin, Gerrard
	Greco, Mario
	Mccarty, Will
	Mele, Luca
	Omrani, Walid
	Piluris, Philip James
	Tibollo, Michael

Incumbent:

		Michael Tibollo
Population (2016):			105228
Population (2011):			105450
2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)
		MICHAEL TIBOLLO
		21,687	50.50%
		STEVEN DEL DUCA *
		13,742	32.00%
		SANDRA LOZANO
		6,254	14.56%
		MICHAEL DIPASQUALE
		972	2.26%
		PAOLO FABRIZIO
		291	0.68%
2014 Election Result: (Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)
		19,246	57.99%
		8,965	27.01%
		3,637	10.96%
		730	2.20%
	OTHERS	609	1.84%
	Total Transposed		33,187
Component Riding(s)
	Vaughan (100.00% of voters in new riding) 2014/2011/2007 Predictions
2021 Federal Election Prediction
2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)
		Francesco Sorbara **
		25,810	51.30%
		Teresa Kruze
		18,289	36.30%
		Peter DeVita
		3,910	7.80%
		Raquel Fronte
		1,302	2.60%
		Domenic Montesano
		852	1.70%
		Muhammad Hassan Khan
		165	0.30%
2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)
		Francesco Sorbara
		23,041	48.70%
		Julian Fantino **
		20,746	43.90%
		Adriana Marie Zichy
		2,198	4.60%
		Anthony Gualtieri
		716	1.50%
		Elise Boulanger
		597	1.30%

	01/06/2022	prog15 72.141.255.214
Before DelDuca resigns as a leader in a couple of days, I predict him not coming too close in his former area. It was a surprise for many when PCs won all 10 York region ridings in 2018, and this one was perhaps the most telling of Liberal collapse. Yet although DelDuca is even better known now that four years ago, once he is out, getting in is a gargantuan task. Tibollo has a reputation of a solid MPP and is in a 905 riding where parties are of greatest importance. Lib campaign was too unimpressive and unless last-minute establishment progressivist press disinformation is allowed to stick (on the lines of voter misdirection scandal in one previous provincial election) specifically in this riding, DelDuca is highly unlikely to win no matter how many resources are spent. Inevitably a riding in media focus on election night... Lib leader is not very likely to make it the closest race in this election cycle as voters who keep the likes of Trudeau in power for immigration and other reasons also like a better management of bread-and-butter issues than Libs have offered. Hard to be scared by the Libs and others over alleged austerity by spending PCs, such constituents as well as more stable PC supporters really have few reasons to leave PCs for anyone else. Ford and company repeating COVID vaccine lies of progressive establishment will make them unappealing to a large section of supporters, but with the absence of a realistic right alternative and still pseudo-science trusting constituencies of 905 belt, no danger from the right exists for Tibollo either - I expect his win over DelDuca by a fair margin.
	01/06/2022	prog15 72.141.255.214
It was a surprise for many when PCs won all 10 York region ridings in 2018, and this one was perhaps the most telling of Liberal collapse. Yet although DelDuca is even better known now that four years ago, once he is out, getting in is a gargantuan task. Tibollo has a reputation of a solid MPP and is in a 905 riding where parties are of greatest importance. Lib campaign was too unimpressive and unless last-minute establishment progressivist press disinformation is allowed to stick (on the lines of voter misdirection scandal in one previous provincial election) specifically in this riding, DelDuca is highly unlikely to win no matter how many resources are spent. Inevitably a riding in media focus on election night. Lib leader is not very likely to make it the closest race in this election cycle as voters who keep the likes of Trudeau in power for immigration and other reasons also like a better management of bread-and-butter issues than Libs have offered. Hard to be scared by the Libs and others over alleged austerity by spending PCs, such constituents as well as more stable PC supporters really have few reasons to leave PCs for anyone else. Ford and company repeating COVID vaccine lies of progressive establishment will make them unappealing to a large section of supporters, but with the absence of a realistic right alternative and still pseudo-science trusting constituencies of 905 belt, no danger from the right exists for Tibollo either - I expect his win over DelDuca by a fair margin
	01/06/2022	R.O. 24.146.13.249
At this point in the campaign I highly doubt Del Duca will win Vaughan Woodbridge. I’ve yet to see any publically available polling data that shows him leading here. there is little evidence his campaign has caught the attention of many voters , most appear to only be voting for him cause he is leading the liberals and out of a dislike of Doug Ford. But not convinced Ford or pc’s that unpopular in Vaughan it’s a suburban area with many commuters and such and borders Fords own riding to the south. It had been pc in the 90’s when they were last in power and had even been cpc briefly when Julian Fantino mp so despite its liberal leanings can still elect conservatives when the conditions are right. And the conditions currently show a large pc lead province wide and York region seems to be an area there doing well in.
	30/05/2022	Tony Ducey 24.137.72.105
This campaign has been a disappointment for the Liberals I think Del Duca will win his own seat, not sure he sticks around as Liberal leader though.
	31/05/2022	seasaw 99.225.210.37
Don't think Del Duca's going to win here, especially with what has allegedly happened this past weekend, when federal minister Marco Mendocino and a group of volunteers were door knocking on Del Duca's behalf, they took PC flyers out of people's mailboxes and that's an offense. If the Liberal party wants to rebuild, they must cut all ties with the McGuinty-Wynne era. On the positive note, Tivoli has been a great MPP, much better than his predecessor and a reliable and good minister unlike his opponent. I think Tibolo will take this one, who knows, Tibolo may be the next premier
	30/05/2022	MBM 64.228.235.248
I've been watching this riding on 338 Canada for quite a while now, and as of tonight, they've extended the PC lead here to five points. That's a lot of ground to make up in three days. Del Duca is in serious trouble here - it's time to call it.
	30/05/2022	Matt B. 174.112.6.162
Yikes, 338 has Del Duca losing his own seat. "Leaning PC hold" with a 77% chance of PC victory. Hope the Liberals learned an important lesson in leadership choice this election. It seems to have been decisive. This is a riding they could have easily won based on historical trends, but looks like they won't.
	31/05/2022	Marco Ricci 174.114.237.78
Many Italian Canadians still vote Liberal, but there are also more Liberal-Conservative swing voters than there used to be a couple of decades ago. This area has switched between the Liberals & Conservatives both provincially and federally in recent years. Del Duca lost by 18.5 points in the Wynne wipeout in 2018, so he has a fair amount of ground to make up. And in the 2021 Federal election last fall, Liberal MP Francesco Sorbara won by a narrower margin than he did in 2019. Del Duca has a chance here, but we may see a narrow PC win based on the current numbers.
	28/05/2022	PY 99.230.134.135
I didn't expect the Star to end up having such a wishy-washy editorial (https://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorials/2022/05/27/ontario-voters-should-back-progressive-parties-to-avoid-a-second-ford-majority.html), but alas, it did. Oddly enough, it did also offer its endorsement at the riding level here: 'Del Duca has earned the right to sit in the legislature and speak for his party. The voters of Vaughan–Woodbridge should give him that chance.' Say what you will about the Star's current ownership or the importance of MSM endorsements in the 21st century, but I believe there are undecideds who could take notice, especially those who've already asked everyone they know (IRL and online). The temptation for constituents to have an MPP to offset Stephen Lecce in King–Vaughan next door is definitely there.
	27/05/2022	SuburbanDad 37.19.213.70
If Del Duca loses here, can he continue as leader? I think we're going to find that out.
	27/05/2022	Dr Bear 69.157.140.16
I think everyone here wants to see Del Duca win. Possibly because we feel that he’s the underdog and everyone likes to roots for one. However I think we will see Del Duca being the OLP version of John Tory.
	27/05/2022	Eric 71.88.194.97
Potentially close but I don't see Del Duca winning his seat back and ultimately him being replaced as Liberal leader before 2026 partly as a result of this, in addition to the fact that Liberals might just barely making official party status after June 2nd. Sometimes leaders without a seat buck trends, like John Turner in Vancouver Quadra back in 1984 defeating a Tory incumbent, but this is not one of those times. This is too much of a bell weather riding with a strong blue wave in York Region.
	26/05/2022	R.O. 24.146.13.249
Noticed another new riding poll for Vaughan Woodbridge , this one from mainstreet slightly closer numbers than the previous poll I saw . They have 46 pc Tibollo , 42 Del Duca and 5 ndp . either way a comeback for Del Duca does not appear likely. https://www.ipolitics.ca/queens-park/riding-poll-del-duca-behind-in-vaughan-woodbridge
	25/05/2022	R.O. 24.146.13.249
There is an article about this riding in a paper called the queens park observer, but basically author was not see a lot of his signs in the riding and having a hard time finding people who supported him. It also shares internal pc polling for Vaughan riding that has Tibollo ahead at 47 % to Del Duca at 33 %. Numbers which are similar to 2018 but a bit closer. Despite being a major party leader not convinced he’s made much of an impact so far. A leger poll says only 13 % of voters picked him as best premier a number much lower than liberal support in the same poll. I actually though the race here would be closer but it appears York region is a tough area for liberals provincially this year. https://qpobserver.substack.com/p/why-cant-i-find-a-del-duca-voter?s=w
	24/05/2022	AD 198.84.175.242
I guess it is possible we are all out of our minds. There's a lot that says this should be a PC retention, but I too somehow feel this will shift to the Liberals. It isn't like Del Duca is all that popular, it just seems to make sense. After such a bad election last time around, if the Liberals are going to gain back some ground, it's gonna have to happen somewhere and I guess that is here.
	22/05/2022	JW 45.41.168.91
“Michael Tibollo is one of our brightest ministers,” PC Leader Doug Ford declared at a news conference in Niagara-on-the-Lake Thursday. Given Doug Ford demoted this minister not once but twice within one year time, this is a rather damning statement for either: - the quality of Ford's cabinet - Ford's honesty Perhaps Ford is merely imitating Trump's "Nobody has better respect for intelligence than Donald Trump", or his "greatest" and "most powerful and "bigly" tendency.
	16/05/2022	HDdude 99.244.98.107
Considering up until now how the Ford PCs are polling, it isn't out of the realm of possibility that Del Duca, even as leader of the OLP, can still lose in this riding. He's polling even less then the OLP party he is leading. Factor in the fact that Tibolo is now an incumbent, and would at least have some familiarity with the constituency, and how the Ford PCs are pretty well ahead in polls. This can very much be a likely PC hold and an embarrassment for Del Duca.
	10/05/2022	Finn 174.114.72.203
No matter how much the PCs throw at this, I think it is inevitable that this riding will go Liberal, just because of the fact that this is Del Duca's riding. While I think it will be very close, I just cannot see the Liberal leader losing in this seat.
	06/05/2022	SarahMitts 45.74.101.124
The pendulum will need to swift way back to the centre in order for Mr. Del Duca to win his seat back. This will not be a comfortable race for either candidate (Liberal and PC) and their could be some shenanigans. I do not believe the GO Transit scandal will hurt Del Duca as the locals appreciate having the stations and having the province pay for them.
	01/05/2022	R.O. 24.146.13.249
This is one of the more interesting races I doubt very much it will be won easily by either candidate. Michael Tibollo is the incumbent for some reason though he was older but says he is 62. Steven Del Duca was mpp of Vaughan from 2012-2018 so he’s better know here than he is province wide where he remains more or less unknown to many voters. When the liberals took this riding from the pc’s last time it was back in 2001 but during a by election when popular mpp Al Palladini died unexpectedly and they ran a high profile candidate Greg Sorbara. They didn’t win it during the general election in fact the pc’s held it by a large margin in 99 election. One of the weaker ndp ridings so not much of a factor here in what is a 2 way race. So Tibollo goes into election with incumbent advantage and being a part of the Ford government and Del Duca has the profile of being a former mpp but a party leader without a seat in the legislature. I think it was a mistake for Del Duca to not run in a by election as its clear he’s a very low profile party leader that few people know much if anything about. The new leader of the BC liberals Kevin Falcon who was only elected a few months ago just won a seat in there provincial parliament the other day so its odd for a party leader to not seek one.
	28/04/22	LeftCoast 207.194.253.26
On balance, Liberal leader Steven del del Duca will likely easily take this seat.
	17/04/22	Max Eccles 85.203.36.5
The Liberals are going to throw everything they have into the riding to ensure their leader gets elected. It won't be pretty, but I suspect Del Duca will eke out a win come June.
	05/04/22	A.S. 99.225.52.35
Re Tibollo as "rising star": actually, I thought that his losing the Tourism/Culture/Sport beat was a *demotion*--when it comes to York Region rising-stardom, he's certainly played second fiddle to Stephen Lecce ever since. If he's got anything in his favour, it's that his riding and adjuncts practically bankrolls Ford Nation, and it swung t/w the federal Cons in '21 so that it's now weaker or tighter-margined than either Richmond Hill or Markham-Unionville. But still, his rematch is now against a party leader--though one suspects that if Del Duca loses personally while significantly augmenting his caucus, the brownie points will be there for somebody out there to resign on his behalf.
	30/03/22	seasaw 69.157.38.158
Steven DelDuca is probably going to run in this riding. Michael Tibolo is a rising star in the Ford cabinet. Based on what’s going on right now, the PC are probably going to win another term, and the Liberals are very likely to finish third. So given a choice between a rising star in the cabinet and the leader of the third party, who will probably not last his full term, I think the voters here will pick the former.
	07/03/22	R.O. 24.146.13.249
Michael Tibollo is the current mpp on the riding after getting elected in 2018. Riding has a liberal tradition but still voted tory a few times over the years. its assumed Steven Del Duca will run here as he had been mpp from 2012-2018 and he isn?¢â‚¬â„¢t nominated to run in any other riding. Which sets up a competitive race for this riding .
	03/06/21	KXS 99.247.196.32
Del Duca is likely to run in Vaughan Woodbridge. As a result, the Liberals would have a strong focus on this riding. Still, it's hard to lock this to the Liberals before the campaign starts. York Region is looking more favourable to the PCs than Peel, Toronto or even Durham and Halton.
	31/05/21	Chris N 24.36.32.209
This is Liberal leader Steven Del Duca's home riding, which he lost in 2018. Since being elected leader, Del Duca has stated his intention of running in home riding. However, the potential vacancy of Don Valley East by Liberal MPP Michael Coteau led to some speculation that Del Duca might run there instead, as DVE is considered a safer Liberal seat. My bet is on Del Duca running in Vaughan. In that case, he will likely have the edge, but would still have to overcome a 8,000 vote deficit from 2018.