Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

York South-Weston

Prediction Changed
2022-06-01 02:55:00

Constituency Profile



Fields, James Michael

Ford, Michael

Guerrera, Nadia

Hassan, Faisal

Hipsz, Tom

Mongrell Gonzalez, Ignacio

Ortiz, Ana Gabriela

Faisal Hassan

Population (2016):

Population (2011):116606

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

15,669 47.85%
3,687 11.26%
12,200 37.25%
797 2.43%
OTHERS 395 1.21%
Total Transposed 32,748
      Component Riding(s)

York South-Weston
(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Ahmed Hussen **
Jasveen Rattan
Yafet Tewelde
Nicki Ward
Gerard Racine

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Ahmed Hussen
Mike Sullivan **
James Robinson
Stephen Lepone
John Johnson


30/05/2022 Tony Ducey
The nephew of Premier Doug Ford is running here. He's also a councillor in Toronto so he has that going for him. This riding hasn't been much of a PC stronghold in the past but if I can predict a PC win in a Windsor seat I can do so here.
27/05/2022 Not Non-Partisan
It’s the Ford Factor! Michael Ford is personally popular - even City Council lefties are helping him. Big name against no names.
24/05/2022 Jeremus von Stroheim
Both the Forum and Mainstreet Riding Polls for YSW have the PCs in first, with Forum showing the NDP back in 3rd. While riding polls aren't the most accurate on their own, 2 showing the same results reinforces their accuracy. And while Ford may be a riding jumper, the same could be argued of the Liberal candidate, who had run in some other riding in 2018. I think we will see a Ford victory, with the NDP back in a distant 3rd.
18/05/2022 Eric
While Liberals have recently held this riding at Queen's Park and represent the area federally, the NDP have been very historically prominent in the riding, with Bob Rae and Donald C. MacDonald. The last time the PCs held this area was prior to the 1955 general election. I think both PC and Liberal percentages won't really budge from 2018, PCs trending down but propped up by the Ford name, and with the Libs just the opposite - trending up provincially but with Laura Albanese no longer on the ballot. So basically a wash. This riding really likes to return incumbents, even breaking for Nunziata federally as an independent in the 1997 red wave (he narrowly lost the riding, still as an independent, in 2000). I think before Albanese's defeat in 2018 the last actual provincial incumbent to lose was back in 1951 (CCF to PC). So I wouldn't be surprised if all 3 parties basically maintain vote share, which means it stays orange.
17/05/2022 TheTruth
Not only is the ONDP going to retain the seat, but they will do so with a larger percentage of the vote than in 2018. Other predictions are being far too dismissive of the incumbent advantage locally. Mr. Hassan's presence has been far from "totally invisible" as another commenter has posted. His social media shows a non-stop presence in the community, and a simple google search will show his tireless advocacy during the pandemic.
Also, predictions of a PC surge forget the fact that the PCs ran a strong local candidate in 2018 with Doug Ford as leader . The Ford factor has already been tested, and it came up short.
The Liberal candidate has been parachuted in after losing as a candidate in Parkdale High Park in the last election. She has zero name recognition and is generally underwhelming.
A lot will depend on what happens at the leadership level, but people counting out and NDP hold in YSW might be in for a surprise on June 2.
14/05/2022 HDude
M. Ford is running in this riding as it has had familial ties with the Ford name, and that should most definitely NOT be overlooked. There's mention of the PCs having never represented riding, but there's always a first. And considering the fact that the currently OLP leader Del Duca has strong baggage related to the previous Wynne OLP, coupled with Ford's name and popularity. The PCs came pretty close last time. I think the PCs may actually pull this time thought.
10/05/2022 seasaw
So much attention is being given to Michael Ford’s eatery in this race. The fact is, he doesn’t even live in the riding. He will do better than the Tories have done in the past in this riding, meaning he’ll get enough votes to get his deposit back and that’s it. The riding has never been represented by a Tory and it’s definitely not going to be this time around either. If you look at the 2014 results, the Liberals got 48%, NDP got 36% and the PC’s 10%. In 2018, NDP got 36%, PC was at 30%, and Liberals at 28%, all the disenchanted Liberal vote went to PC. It won’t happen this time, I expect at least half to go back to the Liberals and that should be enough for a Liberal victory
10/05/2022 Finn
Michael Ford is running in this riding. If he were not, I would call this Liberal or even TCTC, but York South-Weston now has the Ford factor that will win the PCs at least 3 seats they normally would not have won.
09/05/2022 Not Non-Partisan
The Fords personify this riding.
03/05/2022 LFCottawa
This is a 416 riding where Conservatives have hardly been competitive for as long as I can remember. However, they almost won it in 2018. Doug Ford also won this area easily in 2014, running against Mayor Tory and Olivia Chow, as did Rob Ford in 2010, so even though WSW is not Etobicoke, Ford nation has strong roots in this riding. With Michael Ford on the ballot, I'd expect this riding to be under blue column on election night, even through its more of a Ford riding than a Conservative one.
28/04/22 LeftCoast
This could go any which way. Right now I lean Liberal, but obviously Michael Ford brings a great deal of star power. If the PCs see stable numbers, I think Ford will bring it home, but right now I'm sticking with Liberal based on the poll numbers.
05/04/22 Landon G.
I'm pretty skeptical that the PCs can win this riding, even with Michael Ford running. This is one of those ridings (along with Humber River-Black Creek, some of the Scarborough seats, and of course Etobicoke North) that was a strong "Ford Nation" area during the brothers' mayoral runs, but which had long given the Conservative Party quite weak support up until the last election. Yes, they came reasonably close to winning it last time (though that had much to do with the split from the Liberal incumbent putting up a very good fight even in 3rd), but that was when memories were much fresher of Rob Ford and his much more whole-hearted populism. Since then, I think the Ford name has been more assimilated to the Conservative brand than vice versa. But I could be wrong -- if so, though, I think it would take an almost perfect 3-way split for Ford to win (or for the PCs to dominate the upcoming campaign).
04/04/22 KXS
The announcement that Michael Ford is running makes this a pure three way race. The Ford name has cache is this part of Toronto, which is evident by the strong PC vote share in 2018.
It will be interesting to see how the progressive vote sorts it self out in this riding. I could be wrong, but I feel Andrea Horwath's leadership appeals more to the progressive swing vote in York South Weston than Steven Del Duca.
04/04/22 R.O.
There was a bunch of news stories out yesterday about Michael Ford being the new pc candidate for this riding. He is currently a city councillor for nearby Etobicoke North and related to Doug Ford. I think the pc’s would of still been competitive here even if Mark Demontis had ran again. The liberals had assumed this riding be an obvious pick up for them but with Michael Ford now running here its likely a highly unpredictable 3 way race which might not even be clear who wins until election night.
04/04/22 seasaw
Michael Ford, Doug’s nephew is running for the PC’s in this riding. It means that the PC’s will become a lot more competitive in this riding. The NDP incumbent has been totally invisible, meaning much of his support will be going to the Liberals and PC’s. Still, in spite of all this both the NDP and the Liberals are very strong and are very well organized in this riding, Mr Ford’s entry will all but ensure a Liberal victory in this riding
30/03/22 A.S.
Similar story to HRBC: NDP won w/a lower share than they lost with in '14, and Lib unexpectedly pushed into 3rd by Ford Nation...and what would have been implausible in a pre-Ford era: the Tories doing better here and in HRBC than in Toronto-St Paul's. Even if Hassan came in more as part of a wave than as a star (particularly when we're dealing w/the successor riding to the fiefdom of several provincial and federal NDP leaders), the Lib problem's the same--they fell too far in '18 for recovery to be an easy task in '22; and for all one knows, some of that residual Lib-left incumbency vote in '18 might now find themselves banking on Hassan's incumbency as well. Unless it was the sort of vote that would have defaulted to the *Tories* instead, had they known they had a chance; which may well be the case in areas like Maple Leaf/Rustic--perhaps, then, it was only that 3rd party conventional wisdom re the PCs that stood in the way of YSW being another feather in the Ford Nation hat. Still, with the rawest novelty of inner-ethnoburban Ford Nation having passed, it's hard for me to see the Cons consolidating on their '18 result; or if they did, it'd truly be a political earthquake. (But Hassan, much like his Liberal predecessor, *could* finish 3rd, if the Libs truly mean comeback business.)
14/03/22 R.O.
Faisal Hassan was first elected here in 2018, largely been a liberal riding but was ndp briefly during a 2007 by election and federally ndp in 2011. The surprise here last election was how well Mark Demontis did his strong 2nd place showing not really expected although the riding close to Fords Etobicoke riding. Unclear who the pc candidate is this election, new liberal candidate is Nadia Guerrera. Tough one to predict
05/03/22 seasaw
While I?˘â‚¬â„˘m in 100% agreement with the previous poster, that this will be a 3 way race, zI believe that the Liberals will eventually come on top. While Ford remains personally popular in this area, and the NDP incumbent has been pretty much invisible, it would help the Liberal candidate in this riding. I suspect some NDP support will go to PC, but most will go to the Liberals, just enough to put them on top
09/07/21 Chris N
Clarification to my earlier prediction. I meant to say:
?In 2018, I expected this to be a two-way race between the Liberals and *NDP*?
20/05/21 Chris N
In 2018, I expected this to be a two-way race between the Liberals and Conservatives. Surprisingly, the PCs came a close second. This can likely be attributed to the riding's deep history of support for the Ford family. Rob Ford, followed by Doug Ford, won both York South Weston wards in the 2014 and 2018 municipal elections. With a reinvigorated Liberal party in 2022, I anticipate this to be a very close three-way rice.

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