Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

York South-Weston

Prediction Changed
2015-10-15 23:40:29

Constituency Profile


Hussen, Ahmed

Johnson, John

Lepone, Stephen

Robinson, James

Sullivan, Mike

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   York South-Weston
   (191/191 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Mike Sullivan


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15 10 15 #ABC51
It took an historically good result for the NDP and an historically bad result for the Liberals for this riding to go orange.
Much as I am a proud New Democrat, I don't see this going anything but Red on election day, even without Alan Tonks.
15 10 13 Jeff S
Changing fortunes of the two parties likely means this one switches from NDP to Liberal.
15 10 07 jeff316
Sullivan signs dominate the portion of the riding close to the Junction. Everywhere else, Hussein dominates. Sullivan is done. This won't be close.
15 10 05 YR
Not sure about the sign war comment below. I reside in the extreme south end of the riding, and there are even fewer Liberal signs than Conservative in the neighborhood.
This is a big change from previous years - Sullivan seems more popular than the year he won.
15 10 04
This is a clear Liberal pickup given their high support in Ontario and Toronto specifically. This is by no means a traditional NDP riding and only defaulted to the NDP last time after it became clear how weak the Liberals were under Ignatieff. Trudeau is no Ignatieff and the Liberals should easily regain this seat.
15 10 01 AJ S
NDP is dipping heavily in Quebec and the Liberals appear to be the only party capable of displacing Harper. Given that this is, in fact, a progressive riding, the Liberals momentum will carry the riding for Hussen. Further, Hussen has done a great job of hitting the pavement hard while Sullivan hasn't done much in his time in Ottawa to counter this riding's Liberal leanings.
15 09 25 Woodworth
LPC winning sign war here. Looks like this riding has a good chance at going Liberal.
15 09 20 Nick M.
Provincially the NDP Ferreira suffered from not having enough volunteers in 2007. I believe that was the year. If there isn't a very strong ground campaign here, than this riding will tilt Liberal. Riding is poor, and have a lower participation when it comes to voting.
So a strong NDP campaign, this becomes a toss up. Eitherwise I place this in the Liberal win category.
I think the Libs will edge this one out.
15 09 12 Jason
It will be a close one, but I believe the NDP's Mike Sullivan should be able to hold it.
Looking at the provincial results in 2007 (twice) and 2011 demonstrate how tight this riding could be.
It's true the Liberals are gaining in Ontario, partly at the expense of the NDP. That would hamper the NDP's chances at winning seats from the Liberals. But I doubt many NDP incumbents will be threatened.
15 09 09 Dr.Bear
And another 180... Liberal support has bounced back in Toronto, with NDP support going to them. I think TCTC is the best call for this riding at the moment.
15 09 07
The Liberals are now polling very well in Ontario, the latest poll has them slightly leading now in York-South- Weston. It's still too close to call, but it's a traditional Liberal riding. Last represented by Alan Tonks, and before that former rat packer John Nunziata. If the Libs continue their momentum I can see this being won again.
15 08 29 Mark
Sullivan is immemorable, but flighty Trudeau plays poorly in this tough part of Toronto. The NDP should hold this, even if they lose most of their other Toronto seats to the Liberals.
15 07 22 Pete
This riding will likely be NDP by a close margin. Liberals bled to both parties last election locally, in particular to the Conservatives in the typical liberal voting bastion of Rustic/Maple/Leaf/Amesbury. If they do not get that vote back, this riding will go NDP again.
15 07 20 Dr Bear
Time for a complete 180 on my previous post. NDP numbers have recovered and there is talk of an NDP government. This will solidly stay with the NDP under those circumstances.
15 07 01 HFoster
Mark Sullivan has been a low-key incumbent, but this riding should stay NDP if the NDP sticks to the way it is polling right now (on track to win government).
15 06 15 A.S.
Sullivan's arguably the 'ordinariest' of the NDP's Toronto caucus--in the virtuous sense, that is: the classic community-activist-made-good, much like many who ran (and volunteered) for the party federally and provincially in the pre-Rae-implosion 70s and 80s. But yes, the Liberals would love love oh so love to take this back (though unlike some, I *don't* think a Tonks comeback would have cinched it). It's also worth noting that low 40s has been a sort of NDP percentage plateau in recent years--Paul Ferreira couldn't budge it in his winning and losing provincial bids, and even Sullivan in victory couldn't match Ferreira in his 2007 and 2011 (but not 2014) defeats. Judging from their nominee, the Grits are taking a high-and-enlightened road this time--but as with so much Justin Liberal, one wonders if it's too self-consciously 'high-and-enlightened' for its own good (or, for that matter, how a Somali candidate would fare in the party's traditional middle-class-Italian strongholds: Maple Leaf/Culford/Rustic et al). Will Mike Sullivan be sent on the UP Express to political oblivion? Don't count on it coming so easily...
15 06 03 Harpreet
NDP MP Mike Sullivan is popular and well-liked, both as an NDP MP and as a community member. He led the fight to stop diesel trains running through the the riding. Easy NDP hold.
15 05 18 seasaw
As things stand now, this riding should go to the Liberals. NDP can keep it provided of course there's another orange wave ( unlikely ). I have to call this one the way I see it and right now the Liberals are just behind the CPC in some polls and tied in others and well ahead of the NDP. Unless things change, this should go Liberal.
15 05 17 Mr. Dave
Liberal fortunes have been in a steady decline over the past few months, while NDP fortunes have been gaining steam during the same period, with recent polling showing the NDP in a statistical tie, if not an edge over both the Conservatives and the Liberals.
Had Alan Tonks run once more, this riding might have gone Liberal again, but with Mike Sullivan on the ballot for the third time as NDP candidate, he should be able to hold this riding.
15 04 28 R.O.
This is a very tough riding to predict , it should be an easy ndp hold but is a riding that has mostly been liberal and has tended to be a place the ndp come close but don't actually win especially at provincial level . Mike Sullivan also isn't that high profile of an mp. That being said the liberals are also without longtime MP Alan Tonks and hard to determine how new candidate will do here. The conservatives not really a factor in this riding.
15 04 11 JC
Mike Sullivan is a back-bench MP and basically has made no name for himself over the course of four years, the Liberals are running Ahmed Hussen who is the President of Canadian Somali Congress and a charismatic lawyer. Sullivan is toast.
15 04 05 MGK
The NDP doesn't have the same organizational strength in this riding as in their south-of-Bloor ridings. Absent a repeat of the Liberal collapse and NDP surge from 2011, I'd bet on the Liberals to retake it.
15 03 28 monkey
Interestingly enough this riding backed Doug Ford so not you downtown type leftist NDP riding, but still one of the poorest in the city. At this point I could see either the NDP or Liberals winning it. The Tories won't but they could play a spoiler role as the better they do the better the chances are for the NDP while the worse they do the better the odds are for the Liberals.
15 03 24 Craig Hubley
I predicted NDP holds in most of 416 Toronto but here it's just too close. A good constituency MP like most NDP MPs, but with no national profile and not much of an edge in votes. Conservative votes will also likely shift Liberal in this ABC riding especially if Con support in 416 totally collapses with the death of Ford Nation and the loss of capacity to support mass electoral fraud, which is how Cons got 416 seats at all.
This is an ABC horse race Liberal vs. NDP.
15 03 23 ML
Too close to call. Sullivan is a solid constituency MP with a relatively low profile on the Hill who snuck in a win in 2011 with the Liberal collapse. It's interesting that in a riding with a huge Italian and Portuguese population that neither the Liberal or NDP candidates are from either background. The ability to galvanize those communities on election day could be the difference.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
This riding tends to swing NDP when they're on the up. They're certainly not on an up from 2011! This is likely going to fall to the Liberals relatively early on election night. If NDP numbers stay around where they are in Ontario, then they're going to focus on trying to save the seats of people like Peggy Nash, Matthew Kellway and even Craig Scott. If NDP numbers improve then I would suggest this riding be called TCTC. For now I say Liberal gain.

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