Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

York South-Weston

Prediction Changed
2009-09-03 16:34:00

Constituency Profile


Day, Sonny

Saweczko, Jilian

Sullivan, Mike

Tonks, Alan

Alan Tonks

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • york-south-weston (160/165 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 30 JR Toronto
    Drove through this riding lots of NDP signs. Add to this a surging NDP, an increase of 416 tory support, opposition to the use of deisel trains in Weston and it sounds like an NDP pickup.
    11 04 30 Danforthist
    I think this riding will go to Mike Sullivan of the NDP. (1) Sullivan is a real presence in the riding, not a ‘pylon’ having run in 2008 and campaigned slowly but steadily since then. (2) It's important to note that this riding was held by the NDP provincially as late as 2007. (3) Hill and Knowlton (the PR firm) has already predicted this riding as an NDP win, and that was before the recent polls (4) Recent polls have the NDP at 33% nationally (vs. 21% for the Libs), meaning the ABC vote will break NDP (5)If all the rest wasn't enough, the Toronto Star has now endorsed the NDP (for the first time ever, federally, as far as I know)
    11 04 29 jeff316
    Tonks has been in this area forever. That will be hard to crack. But things are slowly changing. I have family in the area and the pace of this change, politically, is faster than I previously anticipated. I think Tonks will win, but if there is an NDP surge, the surprise in my book will be that this is the only Liberal seat in Toronto that may fall to the NDP.
    11 04 27 expat
    NDP strategists and spin doctors have been talking this riding up as a place they would oust a Liberal incumbent, but with static Ontario polls, I wasn't buying it.
    But with that latest Angus Reid showing the Liberal/NDP split at 30%-27%, Forum Research showing 28%/26%, and EKOS showing it at 29%-24%, clearly there are going to be NDP upsets in Ontario as well. Given some grumbling against Tonks' social conservatism on some issues, as well as an aggressive NDP campaign by a decent local candidates, I'm picking this one as one of the places that will switch. How many others will there be?
    11 04 27 LF
    I think there should be some consideration to move this into the ‘too close to call’ column.
    I live in the riding, and I've spoken with a friend on the NDP campaign who suggests they've been making inroads, and were quite successful in pulling support to the advance polls. Advanced polling increased by about 40% in this riding. Usually not good news for the incumbent.
    Also, it appears the NDP is devoting more resources to the riding. I've already received 3 slickly produced marketing pieces from the NDP, and only one from the Liberal campaign (not a very good one at that). Historically, literature drops have been pretty much on par.
    I realize that the NDP hasn't experienced a breakthrough in Ontario quite yet, but today's Nanos daily tracking shows a clear trend of NDP growth, and Liberal decline. Based on 08 elections results, the NDP has gained 3 points, and the Liberals have dropped 8!
    I could be wrong, but it feels like this one is going to be tight.
    11 04 17 jeff316
    The Liberals will hold, but with the retirement of Tonks and a candidate that is more representative of the local population this is one the NDP could challenge for in the future. If they can hold second place again, Sullivan running again is another step in the rebuilding of the NDP brand out in York South-Weston.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    Although a working class area, this has long been a Liberal stronghold and thus I expect it will stay Liberal. The question is more who comes in second and what are the margins.
    11 03 28 MH
    Mike Sullivan is having another run at YSW for the NDP, where his party used to be competitive. But Alan Tonks would have to lose a lot of votes to go down. Not impossible, but unlikely. Much more likely is that the Conservatives will once again finish in third place. The last time they threatened here was in 1979, and they're hardly on the doorstep now.
    10 03 06 R.O.
    By Toronto standards the race here in 08 was actually rather close as the liberal vote fell by about 10% and that follows the trend seen in this riding during some recent provincial votes as well. its simply became a much closer liberal/ndp race than in previous years even though the liberals lead in Toronto. now i'm not sure if thats only because of the rail line issue that is a concern in the riding or if there is other things in play here. but its certainly not an impossible one for the ndp anymore as they did win it once provincially in a by-election. although i suspect if they were to ever win it federally it only stay with them one term and later return to liberals. but either way Mike Sullivan might have a shot here at some point. and as Alan Tonks is an older mp its unclear if he will continue to run for much longer , so i somehow suspect we will see an open race here in the near future.
    09 09 05 A.S.
    Paul Ferreira's *federal* runs weren't so much the revitalizing factor as his brief moment in the sun as a byelected MPP; it's that particular afterglow which, in a rarity for otherwise-stagnant Toronto, bumped the '08 NDP share up 7 points. And except as part of a broader trend, don't necessarily expect that to bump back down significantly on behalf of Tonks getting back above 50%, esp. if the Ferreira interlude convinced constituents that it doesn't have to be autopilot Liberal, all of the time, even federally (and esp. with a representative as clapped-out as Tonks). Methinks a more permanent dynamic has established itself--but no fear, Grits: maintaining 46.6% is still enough to win. (And remember that the *Tory* vote somewhat unexpectedly crested 20%, too, so the seepage from Tonks went both ways.)
    09 09 01 Kyle
    I'm assuming you haven't gotten around to it because this is as easy a call as you can make. Tonks will win this one and will likely be back over 50% again.
    09 09 01 MF
    Paul Ferreira's runs have revitalized the NDP in its old York South stronghold, and in the last election they pulled a respectable 28% here. Still, Tonks still won this by a very comfortable margin so this should have no problem hanging on, even with the NDP having established themselves as the ‘official opposition.’
    09 09 01 Don't Tase Me, Bro!
    Even if Alan Tonk retires, this riding usually votes Liberal federally, and is more split between the Liberals and NDP more on the provincial level. Tonks won with 46% here in 2008, and I would be surprised if his vote doesn't go back to over 50% the next time around.

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