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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound


Prediction Changed
2021-06-30 17:45:00
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Byers, Rick

Coles, Suzanne

Grimaldi, Vince

Gventer, Karen

Hicks, Selwyn J.

Kaikkonen, Reima

Loughead, Joel

Valiquette, Danielle

Westover, Joseph


Incumbent:
Bill Walker

Population (2016):

107679
Population (2011):106475


2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)

BILL WALKER *
26,87454.70%
KAREN GVENTER
11,83724.09%
FRANCESCA DOBBYN
6,04112.30%
DON B. MARSHALL
2,9275.96%
ELIZABETH LIZ MARSHALL
5521.12%
ENOS MARTIN
4420.90%
JANICE KAIKKONEN
2610.53%
JAY MILLER
1940.39%


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

11,586 27.06%
20,359 47.55%
6,787 15.85%
3,696 8.63%
OTHERS 388 0.91%
Total Transposed 42,816
      Component Riding(s)

Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound
(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions


2021 Federal Election Prediction


2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Alex Ruff
26,83046.10%
Michael Den Tandt
17,48530.10%
Chris Stephen
6,79711.70%
Danielle Valiquette
5,1148.80%
Bill Townsend
1,6142.80%
Daniel Little
3210.60%


2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Larry Miller **
26,29746.70%
Kimberley Love
21,87938.80%
David McLaren
6,27011.10%
Chris Albinati
1,8873.30%


 

25/05/2022 Tony Ducey
24.137.73.188
Rick Byers may not be a strong candidate but I think this is a seat where you could run a dog as a PC and the dog would win. I think Byers, after running so many times, will finally be heading to Queens Park after June 2.
27/04/22 LeftCoast
207.194.253.26
Traditionally a safe PC seat. Incumbent Bill Walker has retired, and been succeeded by Rick Byers, who seems like a somewhat weak candidate (having been defeated repeatedly as the Tory candidate in Oakville, and then getting washed out in the federal nomination in 2019 by now MP Alex Ruff).
The Greens placed strong seconds in this riding provincially and federally in the mid 2000s, but have since faded back substantially. This time they're running municipal councillor Danielle Valiquette, a stronger candidate than they've put up in the past. The Liberals, meanwhile, are running Hannover deputy mayor Selwyn Hicks, who's town is in the less-populated southern portion of the riding, away from the primary population centre of Owen Sound.
I believe that Byers will win, but the Greens will surprise some by placing a strong second here.
20/04/22 A.S.
99.225.52.35
Any seat where the 2nd-place '18 finish was a sub-25% result by the same NDP candidate who was 2nd federally with a sub-20% result in '11 has to be accepted as a Tory sleepwalk. And the present Lib candidate had the worst provincial result for his party in '07--but only because he was reduced to placeholder status by that year's Shane Jolley strategic-Green phenomenon. As Grey County Warden, Hicks is actually well-placed to recover his party's traditional 2nd place status (and he falls into that intriguing "Ovid Jackson" Grey County pattern of POC Liberalism). But I reckon no better than that.
07/03/22 R.O.
24.146.13.249
Bill Walker announced his retirement a couple weeks ago which was a surprise to some although he had been mpp since 2011.this riding has had no incumbent before and still stayed pc its a mostly rural area with a long tory history. Rick Byers is listed as new pc candidate for the riding.
28/05/21 Chris N
24.36.32.209
Since the riding was created in 1999, it has been a PC stronghold. Last election, Bill Walker was re-elected by a margin of 30%. The PCs will keep it next year.



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