Election Prediction Project

North Vancouver-Seymour
British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
10:58 AM 07/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
2:52 PM 24/02/2005

Constituency Profile

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Work Less
Christine E. Ellis
BC Liberal
Daniel Morrison Jarvis
Darin Keith Neal
Cathy Pinsent
Green Party
John Sharpe

BC Liberals:
JARVIS, Daniel
1996 Re-distribution:
Dev. from Quota:12.78%
Area (km2):383
Pop Density:138.83

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)


1996 Result (redistributed):


Surrounding Ridings:
Burnaby North
North Vancouver-Lonsdale
Port Coquitlam-Burke Mountain
Port Moody-Westwood
West Vancouver-Capilano
West Vancouver-Garibaldi

02 05 05 James
Dan Jarvis is a nice guy in a safe riding. He will win easily.
He is one of the few (the only??) of the original 17 Liberals elected in 1991.
I disagree with 'A. Vancouverite', Don Bell was a pretty strong Liberal candidate for North Vancouver. He is a nice guy with strong name recognition, (he has been in the community a lot over the last 30 years and was quite a visible mayor). He campaigned quite hard. However, he owed a lot of his victory to the fact that Ted White had pissed off a lot of people over the years (and during the election campaign) with his attitudes about not supporting local businesses, insulting immigrants and condescending columns that he published in the NS News. Even given that the victory was pretty narrow and who knows what will happen in the next election.
I will say Cathy Pinsent is putting on a much stronger campaign than I would have expected. Her lawn signs are everywhere (admittedly mostly on public property--although Dan Jarvis' are mostly on public property too) and I have seen her out doing the meet and greets a couple of times now.
25 04 05 Jack Cox
Don BELL A SOCIAL CONSERVATIVE? What have you been smoking? The man voted for Same-sex Marriage.
27 03 05 Pete Smith
Don Bell is a social conservative who sits in the Liberal Party. Cindy Silver who ran to take down Dan Jarvis was a backer of Don Bell.
27 02 05 A. Vancouverite
This area doesn't like social conservatives, it's a moderate liberal riding this is not the Fraser Valley. Don Bell wasn't a particularly strong candidate for the federal Liberals and the Liberal vote in BC stayed relatively stable, even so the people of North Vancouver didn't want to be associated with he Randy Whites and Cheryl Gallants of the political world and expressed this by turfing Ted White. The conservative Silver wouldn't have played very well in this riding so it's clearly a bonus for the Liberals that the small-l liberal Jarvis won the nomination. Even so the riding would probably never vote NDP unless the NDP won by the same margin the Liberals won by in 2001. Jarvis will win by a solid margin -- Silver would've still won but it would've been by a decreased margin.
26 02 05 Laurence Putnam
Ted White did not lose because of social conservatism...he lost because of a myriad of local factors combined with a decline in province-wide Conservative fortunes.
1. Completely pissing off a combination of 10,000+ Iranian and film-industry dependent consituents (the latter group then in turn mounting a well-funded campaign to get rid of Ted)
2. Failing to mount a serious campaign; e.g. running his campaign office on bankers hours, not doing any door-knocking, etc., etc. when he was up against the toughest opponent he'd ever faced: the local Mayor.
3. Didn't help that Conservative fortunes across the province dipped 20% over the 2000 numbers, if you take the CA (49%) and PC (7%) together. Interestingly enough, if you look at the results of the advance vote, Ted won 44%-36%, but dropped eight points in the last week of the campaign...which in fact almost every Conservative candidate in BC did.
Either way, I don't think Ted's loss can be blamed on social conservatism. In fact, while many people call Ted many things, his fundamental belief in representing his constituent's views was well known and even his strongest detractors (there are those who would say I was one) would, I think, concede that little if any empirical evidence allows us to judge Ted as being firmly in the so-con column. (In fact, he even supported bill C-68, which for me was the initial source of my disaffection for him)
Anyways, with that clarified, the ineffective Jarvis, who has been completely silent in the Liberal caucus for 14 years, with the exception of only recently complaining about new ferries being built in Europe, will no doubt be back; this provincial seat having never in history voted NDP.
23-Feb-05 M. Lunn
The North Shore is fairly conservative on the economic issues so this should be an easy Liberal win. The only reason the federal conservative candidate Ted White lost was because of the social conservatism of the federal party, but the BC Liberals are not a socially conservative party so this riding should not be an issue. Even had the more socially conservative Cindy Silver won her nomination, they still probably would have held this riding, although the fact the more middle of the road Daniel Jarvis won certain helps them.

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