Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill


Prediction Changed
2017-12-09 09:12:16
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Parsa, Michael

Yaqubian, Naheed


Incumbent(s):
    Oak Ridges-Markham
   Hon Helena Jaczek

   (52.73% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Richmond Hill
   Hon Reza Moridi

   (23.95% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Newmarket-Aurora
   Hon Chris Ballard

   (23.32% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions


Reference:
Population (2011):106064


2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

15758 45.72%
13136 38.11%
3629 10.53%
1195 3.47%
OTHERS 747 2.17%
Total Transposed 34464

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Oak Ridges-Markham

7878
5887
1910
560
Others398
Total Transposed16633

     Newmarket-Aurora

4138
3921
936
413
Others215
Total Transposed9623

     Richmond Hill

3742
3328
783
222
Others133
Total Transposed8208


Federal Election Result (2015):


Federal Election Result (2015):

Leona Alleslev
2413247.30%
Costas Menegakis **
2303945.20%
Brenda Power
29125.70%
Randi Ramdeen
6541.30%
Kyle Bowles
2430.50%


 

08/01/2018 MF
69.159.31.101
This affluent 905 riding should be an easy PC pickup - unless they really screw up their campaign.
2017-12-26 A BCer
64.180.22.208
Redistribution has given this riding a suburban profile with strong Liberal support from 2014, cutting off the more rural PC areas. That being said, a solid PC candidate, and this riding almost stayed with the Harper Conservatives in 2015 despite a Liberal wipeout in Greater Toronto point to it as a likely PC pick-up.
21/12/2017 Gabbith
75.98.19.133
Really strong PC candidate here, who also almost held Richmond Hill for the CPC in 2015 despite nearby ridings swinging Liberal. He should win this easily, even if PCs end up in opposition.
11/12/2017 Andy
99.228.49.27
A PC landslide. Michael Parsa almost won in the 2015 federal election which was a liberal sweep. Now with the OLP brand being unpopular in York Region I predict an easy win.
08/12/2017
99.228.128.85
PCs will win this seat. The Libs only won this seat federally barely and it was in a Liberal red wave.



Navigate to Ontario 2018 Home | Regional Index | Submission

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.org
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2018 - Email Webmaster