Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Niagara West


Prediction Changed
2017-12-10 21:14:16
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 


Incumbent(s):
    Niagara West-Glanbrook
   Sam Oosterhoff

   (90.42% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Welland
   Cindy Forster

   (7.94% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    St. Catharines
   James J. Bradley

   (1.64% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions


Reference:
Population (2011):86533


2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

10175 24.97%
19482 47.80%
7948 19.50%
2348 5.76%
OTHERS 803 1.97%
Total Transposed 40756

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Niagara West-Glanbrook

9529
17433
6836
2145
Others766
Total Transposed36709

     Welland

386
1620
992
161
Others25
Total Transposed3185

     St. Catharines

261
428
119
41
Others13
Total Transposed862


Federal Election Result (2015):

Dean Allison **
2473248.80%
Phil Rose
1658132.70%
Nameer Rahman
580211.50%
Sid Frere
15113.00%
Harold Jonker
12342.40%
Allan de Roo
7971.60%


 

19/01/2018 Craig
24.213.108.184
Sam Oosterhoff may be hated by the establishment, including that within his own party. However, that hasn't stopped him from winning two difficult nomination battles and greatly overperforming former leader Tim Hudak. Even if he somehow left the party to run as an independent or a smaller party like Trillium, I can't see him not being the strong favourite.
The boundaries are even more favourable for him now as some developing suburban areas in Hamilton (Binbrook and near the airport) are no longer in the riding, while the rural areas remain largely intact. The urban establishment may hate to hear it, but socially conservative policies are mainstream here, and it is economically populist as well. As a result, this seat should remain solidly blue largely *because* of Oosterhoff - the only problem is his views are toxic in urban Ontario and trying to keep him quiet may be tough.
15/01/2018 J.T. Edmunds
72.143.192.199
The PC's could run anyone here and still win.
And they proved it when they elected a home-schooled 19 year old in the last by-election.
The Liberals will likely jump to second with Hamilton being lost in redistribution but Pc's will still win handily.
20/12/2017 Dr. Bear
75.119.248.107
A solidly conservative riding, with a candidate who would likely hurt the PC party if he was the leader, but holds views popular in the community. Easy PC hold.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
174.7.110.151
Sam Osterhoff may have rather extreme views the PCs would rather not have to deal with, but this is a largely agrarian socially conservative riding, even more so than under the old boundaries of Niagara West-Glanbrook so easy PC hold here.
10/12/2017 Innocent bystander
67.215.130.68
Still a solidly Tory riding after redistribution. Sam Oosterhoff will remain the youngest MPP.



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