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Laurier-Sainte-Marie
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2019-03-02 20:23:38
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Azzaoui, Jamil

Duchesne, Michel

Lefebvre, François

Machouf, Nimâ


Incumbent:

Hélène Laverdière

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

111835
107034

70379
62938

10.40 km²
10756.9/km²


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Hélène Laverdière ** 2092938.30%
Gilles Duceppe 1569928.70%
Christine Poirier 1293823.70%
Daniel Gaudreau 22424.10%
Cyrille Giraud 19043.50%
Stéphane Beaulieu 6041.10%
Julien Bernatchez 1600.30%
Serge Lachapelle 1030.20%
Pierre Fontaine 1020.20%


2011 Results (redistributed)

20183.95%
2375046.48%
545310.67%
1785534.94%
13492.64%
Other 6771.32%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Laurier-Sainte-Marie
   (82.12% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Hochelaga
   (10.48% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Westmount-Ville-Marie
   (6.39% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Outremont
   (1.01% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


20/06/19 Marco Ricci
174.114.238.210
It was reported in the Quebec media today that Trudeau and environmentalist Steven Guilbeault will be appearing in Laurier-Sainte Marie in a couple days to confirm that Guilbeault is running for the Liberals:
https://lactualite.com/politique/steven-guilbeault-se-lance-en-politique-aux-cotes-de-justin-trudeau/
10/06/19 GritBusters
135.23.201.92
This riding is part of a belt of left-wing nationalist ridings east of downtown Montreal that have become strongholds for Québec Solidaire provincially.
The Liberal Party used to be strong here, even surviving Mulroney's dominance of Québec, but the riding has been dead to the Liberal Party since Gilles Duceppe's landslide by-election victory as a nationalist independent way back in 1990.
While the loss of Mulcair and of Laverdière may hinder the NDP's chances here, it doesn't change the fact that this riding is much too socialist and too nationalist for the Liberal Party to win back.
It's also too diverse and too hostile to Charter of Values-style xenophobia for it to become a comfortable BQ pick-up.
Thus, we will be left with a tight race between the NDP and the Bloc, with the Green Party in a distant 3rd and further humiliation for the Liberals and the Conservatives.
10/06/19
135.23.201.92
This riding is part of a belt of left-wing nationalist ridings east of downtown Montreal that have become strongholds for Québec Solidaire provincially.
The Liberal Party used to be strong here, even surviving Mulroney's dominance of Québec, but the riding has been dead to the Liberal Party since Gilles Duceppe's landslide by-election victory as a nationalist independent way back in 1990.
While the loss of Mulcair and of Laverdière may hinder the NDP's chances here, it doesn't change the fact that this riding is much too socialist and too nationalist for the Liberal Party to win back.
It's also too diverse and too hostile to Charter of Values-style xenophobia for it to become a comfortable BQ pick-up.
Thus, we will be left with a tight race between the NDP and the Bloc, with the Green Party in a distant 3rd and further humiliation for the Liberals and the Conservatives.
09/06/19 Marco Ricci
174.114.238.210
Mr. Beaudin, although the BQ has a chance to win this riding back, the BQ is still down in Quebec. The BQ is only at 17% according to P.J. Fournier's 338 website. Fournier's projection shows the BQ running 3rd here. So it is too close to call between the Liberals, BQ & NDP:
http://338canada.com/districts/quebec.htm
Meanwhile, environmentalist Steven Guilbeault said he will make a decision on whether to run for the Liberals ‘very soon.’:
https://ipolitics.ca/2019/06/05/ex-pq-minister-trans-mountain-opponent-possible-newcomers-in-liberals-quebec-slate/
28/05/19 Daniel Beaudin
70.24.242.174
2011 was a special year for federal elections in Quebec. Jack Layton alone shook the foundation of the Bloc and managed to pull the orange wave. That meant the end of the Bloc era and of Gilles Duceppe. Today it's M.Singh leading the NDP with a departing Laverdière. There are very strong nationalist roots in L-St-M and it is the same nationalists who voted for Duceppe for more than 20 years that voted for Layton in 2011. Why would they go anywhere else than to a nationalist (separatist)party? It is going to be a strong Bloc win here.
08/05/19
75.119.241.205
I have to disagree with the poster below suggesting that the Liberals will win this seat with 50% + of the votes. I would be surprised (based on current numbers) to see any party top 35%. I would not be at all surprised to see the winner score in the high 20s. That said, I do agree that this is leaning slightly Liberal, for several reasons:
1. In 2015, the Liberal candidate was less high profile than the NDP and Bloc candidates. If Steven Guilbeault runs for the Liberals and Michel Duchesne wins the Bloc nomination, this will not be the case this time around. Guilbeault is at least as high profile as Duchesne and Nima Machouf, and arguably more so.
2. The provincial Liberals have in the last two elections outperformed the PQ in both Mercier and Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques (the provincial ridings that by-and large make up this riding). It is of course possible that the potential 2019 BQ vote has simply transferred to Québec Solidaire. That said, a poll in early February found the Liberals slightly ahead of the Bloc among QS voters (https://leger360.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Politique-QC-publication-le-2-f%C3%A9vrier-2019.pdf). Of course, lots has changed since then, and the margin was razor thin, but this still suggests the Liberals may have potential here.
All this said, this is still very much a competitive seat. The Bloc is currently averaging slightly above their 2015 result in CBC's poll tracker. With a strong campaign and the right splits, they could take this. I also would not be surprised to see the NDP hold onto enough votes to remain competitive. They held onto some support in Outremont's by-election last month. Additionally, this was one of their stronger QC seats before 2011, suggesting a potential base for the party that could buck provincial trends. It is also reasonable to expect, given provincial polling trends, for the Conservative and Green votes to increase a bit. While neither party is going to win the seat, where those votes come from could be decisive. Definitely agree with the TCTC call.
28/04/19 seasaw
99.225.244.232
With the departure of Helene Laverdiere, the end of Quebec love affair with NDP, a weak Bloc and non existant Conservative support in the riding, this riding for the Liberals is ripe for the picking. It'll be the first time since 1988 ( the year they only won 12 seats in the province), that this riding's gone Liberal. I expect them to get 50% if not more
22/03/19 J.F. Breton
207.253.54.66
It will be a very interesting race. The NDP announced that Nima Machouf, Amir Khadir's wife, will try to succeed to Hélène Laverdière. And Rumor says that Steven Guilbault will run for Liberals.
https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201903/13/01-5218167-le-npd-mise-sur-nima-machouf-dans-laurier-sainte-marie.php
18/03/19 Dr.Bear
204.187.20.70
Looks like the Liberals are going to get well-known Quebec environmentalist Steven Guilbeault as their candidate here. I really think they'll be able to win this seat with him. This area of Montreal went for QS in the provincial election. The NDP may be courting QS voters, however most are gravitating to the Liberals. This riding should be a natural NDP seat, however Singh will not appeal to nationalist Quebecers at all (sorry, they will not see past the turban and anyone who argues otherwise doesn't understand Quebecers). I think it will go red this time and return to the NDP in the future under a different leader.
03/03/19 J.F. Breton
135.19.103.179
With the retirement announcement by NDP MP Helène Laverdière, this riding may be picked up by the Liberals or the Bloc Québécois. My guess is Bloc in this nationalist area of Montreal, but it's TCTC at this time. Let's see the next polls.
28/02/19 Sam
86.28.79.130
This one of the nationalist areas of Montreal and in the part of the island where Jagmeet Singh will not be popular due to his policies and to an extent, his visible faith. It is also one of the best areas for the Bloc, and has previously gone PQ provincially. With the popular incumbent, Helene Laverdiere retiring, it makes sense that the NDP vote will collapse, and the Bloc stand to gain the highest amount of that and win the riding.



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