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Laurier-Sainte-Marie
2019 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2019-09-10 00:18:42
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Azzaoui, Jamil

Duchesne, Michel

Greniers, Lise des

Guilbeault, Steven

Lefebvre, François

Machouf, Nimâ


Incumbent:

Hélène Laverdière

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

111835
107034

70379
62938

10.40 km²
10756.9/km²


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Hélène Laverdière ** 2092938.30%
Gilles Duceppe 1569928.70%
Christine Poirier 1293823.70%
Daniel Gaudreau 22424.10%
Cyrille Giraud 19043.50%
Stéphane Beaulieu 6041.10%
Julien Bernatchez 1600.30%
Serge Lachapelle 1030.20%
Pierre Fontaine 1020.20%


2011 Results (redistributed)

20183.95%
2375046.48%
545310.67%
1785534.94%
13492.64%
Other 6771.32%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Laurier-Sainte-Marie
   (82.12% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Hochelaga
   (10.48% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Westmount-Ville-Marie
   (6.39% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Outremont
   (1.01% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


17/09/19 Elizabeth P
192.222.157.42
I live here and I think this riding is too close to call. Looking at the signs on the street I'd say it's a toss-up between the Liberals and the NDP.
15/09/19 GritBusters
142.120.64.220
While I'm convinced that the NDP has become so weak in Québec that they will not hold this riding, I don't see a nationalist stronghold that saw the Liberal Party finish a distant 3rd in 2015 suddenly going red again.
Count on the Bloc.
08/09/19 David F
69.17.228.137
I live in this riding. The NDP are finished, including this riding when our MP decided not to run again. Boulerice and Brosseau will be lucky to hold on, so Khadir's wife as candidate won't help. The Bloc's revival has been exaggerated; anything is a revival for a party that flatlined. I don't sense any excitement about them. Their moment has passed into history and their ground game and funds aren't what they were (nor is the NDP's). Liberals have the strength in Quebec, especially Montreal, to capitalize on the NDP collapse. I give them a slight edge.
21/08/20 QuebecCityOliver
184.162.28.84
Obviously, usual caveats, too early, difficult to predict, campaigns make a difference, blah, blah, blah.
However, if Gilles could not take back the riding why would we assume that just because QS is solid here, the Bloc would be bound to win, the Bloc is the PQs party not QS.
So, the candidates might make the difference. Amir Khadir's wife is running. That has got to make a difference. If the NDP is to hold on anywhere in QC it will be in Montreal.
14/08/20 A.S.
99.225.32.21
I really have my doubts about a presumed BQ win here. First of all, the post-Duceppe Bloc seems a different creature: more a vehicle for suburbanish disgruntlement than urban progressivism. Second, the 2015 Liberal figure is probably artificially low due to that year's perceived Duceppe-vs-Laverdière race. Third, even if the Dippers are in the basement relative to 2015 provincewide, I'm not so sure about urban Montreal--somehow, I suspect the NPD vote will hold up a *lot* better there and more in line with urban seats in other provinces (even the Outremont byelection's solid second indicates as much), and most particularly if they aggressively aim at some synergy with QS (which given the present NPD candidate, seems a given). Finally--and this feeds into both Liberal and NPD potential--the riding's been affected by gentrification and a certain "Millennial cosmopolitanism", to the point where I suspect it's now defined less by raw separatism/sovereignity than it used to be, and more by an "urban universal". The fact that the Bloc's offering a cultural-community figurehead means they're not completely oblivious to the dynamic--but I certainly wouldn't hand it over to them quite yet...
14/08/20 South Islander
184.71.12.34
This riding was solidly LPC until Duceppe won it in a by-election in 1990 (in the wake of the Meech Lake Collapse) and held it for the BQ until the orange wave in 2011 when the BQ were nearly wiped out. 2015 was a rematch with a similar result, but with the NDP and BQ dropping at the expense of the LPC.
The NDP have little hope of holding this given their standing in QC. Recent polls put them at 8-9% in the province, which is about 3% worse than their 2008 result when they won a single seat. I simply cannot believe that Nimâ Machouf could win here when the party is polling that low in the province even with QS support.
Conventional wisdom suggests that this leaves the BQ as the only contenders, but they seem unlikely to win here either. The BQ is polling no higher than their 2015 result, but I suspect much of this reflects past habits. The BQ have no money and will be led by someone other than Duceppe in an election for the first time since 1993. The BQ candidate in this riding just isn't the leader and isn't Duceppe. Without a trusted leader at the helm and without sovereignty as an current issue, the BQ are more likely to decline further than to hold steady or increase their support. Will the BQ that won less than 29% last time with Duceppe as the leader do better in 2019? It just seems very unlikely.
This riding ultimately supported a well-known progressive champion for QC interest for 2 decades while sovereignty and sponsorship were major issues, then abandoned him for what they saw as the progressive albeit federalist choice. With the NDP floundering (particularly in QC), this election is going to be a more traditional LPC vs CPC race, and it's clear which of those two parties this riding would prefer to have in government. The LPC have also nominated Steven Guilbeault: a well-known progressive environmentalist with enough progressive credentials to be palatable to voters here. The LPC probably only needs to improve on its 2015 result by about 10-12% of the vote to come out ahead here. That seems very attainable when the party is not facing an incumbent and a former long-time incumbent from parties that are in decline.
In response to those who note that this riding is too socialist and nationalist for the centre-left LPC, I note that Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques (which contains most of this riding) came within 0.4% of electing an MNA from the centre-right, federalist PLQ as recently as 2014 (albeit in a QS/PLQ/PQ vote split). The NDP are collapsing in QC, the BQ are running someone other than Duceppe for the first time and seem unlikely to improve their numbers. The LPC might not be left wing enough for this riding's progressive taste, but Guilbeault is a sufficiently compelling progressive option and voters simply lack a viable alternative. Sovereignty is also at an all-time low province-wide. While less than 28% voted BQ here in 2015, the LPC and NDP won a combined 62%. Sovereignty just isn't a defining issue anymore.
Conventional wisdom is that the LPC have no chance, but conventional wisdom is constantly proven wrong in politics - particularly in this province. Common conclusions derived from past election results don't account for recent changes in the political landscape. Guilbeault is going to surprise a lot of people.
11/08/20 Marco Ricci
174.115.35.186
It's probably too soon to call this race. The seat projection models show a close 3-way race here, with the Liberals currently in 1st:
http://338canada.com/districts/24039e.htm
Until we get a riding poll for this area, we won't know who will win here until Election time.
06/08/20 R.D.
38.99.161.190
Things are very bad for the NDP in Quebec but I think it's premature to call this riding for the Bloc. Nima Machouf is a great candidate with obviously very close QS ties and QS holds the provincial area strongly. NDP can pool resources between here and in neighboring Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie which remains their strongest potential to hold. Too close to call as of yet.
04/08/20 GritBusters
142.118.67.117
Sorry Laurence..
This riding is a nationalist stronghold with a strong socialist streak and is a QS-PQ battleground provincially.
The Liberals finished a distant 3rd here in 2015, as they have since 2006,and the NDP vote in this area came from Gilles Duceppe's voters and is predominantly nationalist.
If Nima Machouf - Amir Khadir's wife - can't hold this riding for the NDP, she will lose to the BQ and not to the Liberal Party.
16/07/19 Laurence Putnam
96.53.49.70
These ridings were reliably Liberal for decades; even through the Mulroney sweeps. Then Meech Lake sets the table for Gilles Duceppe to come along and upset the whole applecart. Once Duceppe's 20+ year in public service was rendered obsolete by voters in 2011, the riding moved on to the latest fad with the NPD. Both of those circumstances are now history; and while it might have seemed unthinkable even a decade ago, I predict this will be in the Liberal column on election night. Somewhere, Gerard Pelletier is smiling.
20/06/19 Marco Ricci
174.114.238.210
It was reported in the Quebec media today that Trudeau and environmentalist Steven Guilbeault will be appearing in Laurier-Sainte Marie in a couple days to confirm that Guilbeault is running for the Liberals:
https://lactualite.com/politique/steven-guilbeault-se-lance-en-politique-aux-cotes-de-justin-trudeau/
10/06/19 GritBusters
135.23.201.92
This riding is part of a belt of left-wing nationalist ridings east of downtown Montreal that have become strongholds for Québec Solidaire provincially.
The Liberal Party used to be strong here, even surviving Mulroney's dominance of Québec, but the riding has been dead to the Liberal Party since Gilles Duceppe's landslide by-election victory as a nationalist independent way back in 1990.
While the loss of Mulcair and of Laverdière may hinder the NDP's chances here, it doesn't change the fact that this riding is much too socialist and too nationalist for the Liberal Party to win back.
It's also too diverse and too hostile to Charter of Values-style xenophobia for it to become a comfortable BQ pick-up.
Thus, we will be left with a tight race between the NDP and the Bloc, with the Green Party in a distant 3rd and further humiliation for the Liberals and the Conservatives.
10/06/19
135.23.201.92
This riding is part of a belt of left-wing nationalist ridings east of downtown Montreal that have become strongholds for Québec Solidaire provincially.
The Liberal Party used to be strong here, even surviving Mulroney's dominance of Québec, but the riding has been dead to the Liberal Party since Gilles Duceppe's landslide by-election victory as a nationalist independent way back in 1990.
While the loss of Mulcair and of Laverdière may hinder the NDP's chances here, it doesn't change the fact that this riding is much too socialist and too nationalist for the Liberal Party to win back.
It's also too diverse and too hostile to Charter of Values-style xenophobia for it to become a comfortable BQ pick-up.
Thus, we will be left with a tight race between the NDP and the Bloc, with the Green Party in a distant 3rd and further humiliation for the Liberals and the Conservatives.
09/06/19 Marco Ricci
174.114.238.210
Mr. Beaudin, although the BQ has a chance to win this riding back, the BQ is still down in Quebec. The BQ is only at 17% according to P.J. Fournier's 338 website. Fournier's projection shows the BQ running 3rd here. So it is too close to call between the Liberals, BQ & NDP:
http://338canada.com/districts/quebec.htm
Meanwhile, environmentalist Steven Guilbeault said he will make a decision on whether to run for the Liberals ‘very soon.’:
https://ipolitics.ca/2019/06/05/ex-pq-minister-trans-mountain-opponent-possible-newcomers-in-liberals-quebec-slate/
28/05/19 Daniel Beaudin
70.24.242.174
2011 was a special year for federal elections in Quebec. Jack Layton alone shook the foundation of the Bloc and managed to pull the orange wave. That meant the end of the Bloc era and of Gilles Duceppe. Today it's M.Singh leading the NDP with a departing Laverdière. There are very strong nationalist roots in L-St-M and it is the same nationalists who voted for Duceppe for more than 20 years that voted for Layton in 2011. Why would they go anywhere else than to a nationalist (separatist)party? It is going to be a strong Bloc win here.
08/05/19
75.119.241.205
I have to disagree with the poster below suggesting that the Liberals will win this seat with 50% + of the votes. I would be surprised (based on current numbers) to see any party top 35%. I would not be at all surprised to see the winner score in the high 20s. That said, I do agree that this is leaning slightly Liberal, for several reasons:
1. In 2015, the Liberal candidate was less high profile than the NDP and Bloc candidates. If Steven Guilbeault runs for the Liberals and Michel Duchesne wins the Bloc nomination, this will not be the case this time around. Guilbeault is at least as high profile as Duchesne and Nima Machouf, and arguably more so.
2. The provincial Liberals have in the last two elections outperformed the PQ in both Mercier and Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques (the provincial ridings that by-and large make up this riding). It is of course possible that the potential 2019 BQ vote has simply transferred to Québec Solidaire. That said, a poll in early February found the Liberals slightly ahead of the Bloc among QS voters (https://leger360.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Politique-QC-publication-le-2-f%C3%A9vrier-2019.pdf). Of course, lots has changed since then, and the margin was razor thin, but this still suggests the Liberals may have potential here.
All this said, this is still very much a competitive seat. The Bloc is currently averaging slightly above their 2015 result in CBC's poll tracker. With a strong campaign and the right splits, they could take this. I also would not be surprised to see the NDP hold onto enough votes to remain competitive. They held onto some support in Outremont's by-election last month. Additionally, this was one of their stronger QC seats before 2011, suggesting a potential base for the party that could buck provincial trends. It is also reasonable to expect, given provincial polling trends, for the Conservative and Green votes to increase a bit. While neither party is going to win the seat, where those votes come from could be decisive. Definitely agree with the TCTC call.
28/04/19 seasaw
99.225.244.232
With the departure of Helene Laverdiere, the end of Quebec love affair with NDP, a weak Bloc and non existant Conservative support in the riding, this riding for the Liberals is ripe for the picking. It'll be the first time since 1988 ( the year they only won 12 seats in the province), that this riding's gone Liberal. I expect them to get 50% if not more
22/03/19 J.F. Breton
207.253.54.66
It will be a very interesting race. The NDP announced that Nima Machouf, Amir Khadir's wife, will try to succeed to Hélène Laverdière. And Rumor says that Steven Guilbault will run for Liberals.
https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201903/13/01-5218167-le-npd-mise-sur-nima-machouf-dans-laurier-sainte-marie.php
18/03/19 Dr.Bear
204.187.20.70
Looks like the Liberals are going to get well-known Quebec environmentalist Steven Guilbeault as their candidate here. I really think they'll be able to win this seat with him. This area of Montreal went for QS in the provincial election. The NDP may be courting QS voters, however most are gravitating to the Liberals. This riding should be a natural NDP seat, however Singh will not appeal to nationalist Quebecers at all (sorry, they will not see past the turban and anyone who argues otherwise doesn't understand Quebecers). I think it will go red this time and return to the NDP in the future under a different leader.
03/03/19 J.F. Breton
135.19.103.179
With the retirement announcement by NDP MP Helène Laverdière, this riding may be picked up by the Liberals or the Bloc Québécois. My guess is Bloc in this nationalist area of Montreal, but it's TCTC at this time. Let's see the next polls.
28/02/19 Sam
86.28.79.130
This one of the nationalist areas of Montreal and in the part of the island where Jagmeet Singh will not be popular due to his policies and to an extent, his visible faith. It is also one of the best areas for the Bloc, and has previously gone PQ provincially. With the popular incumbent, Helene Laverdiere retiring, it makes sense that the NDP vote will collapse, and the Bloc stand to gain the highest amount of that and win the riding.



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