Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Janko Peric
Canadian Alliance:
Reg Petersen
Progressive Conservative Party:
John L.Housser
New Democratic Party:
Pam Wolfe
John G. Gots
Natural Law Party:
Thomas Mitchell

Incumbent (old riding composition):
Janko Peric

Previous Result:

Surrounding Ridings:
Kitchener Centre

Population: 105 581
Avg Household Income 49 233
Submitted Information
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19/10/00 Mr. Mischief Email:
I looked hard at the results for all of the parties in both the 1993 and 1997 elections. There were 18 ridings in Ontario in which the Refarm party was in dead heat with the Liberals, not once but in both of those elections.....when they were less likely to win any seats in Ontario. This is one. Expect that extra gain in Alliance popularity lately, however slight, to tip the Liberal's canoe here.
20/10/00 J Smith
This riding went liberal in a 4 way race last time. The NDP and PC parties both had 20% of the votes. A lot of the NDP and PC support in this area has gone liberal, and even if most of the remaining PC support went Alliance, it's doubtful they would be able to pull this one off. The Liberals will keep this one, and it won't be very close.
21/10/00 A.S. Email:
Actually, while this was indeed one of Reform's "big ones" in '93 (where, as in Oshawa, they targeted the hitherto NDP-friendly unionized "Reagan Democrats"), it was far from a "dead heat" in '97--but the spoiler was a very credible NDP bid by ex-MPP Mike Farnan. Never that strong, Peric must be biting his nails to the quick; in fed 97 + prov 99 terms, this'd be, at a hair over 30%, the worst Liberal riding in Ontario! And PC MPP Gerry Martiniuk, who'll certainly propping up the Alliance, won reelection by a galvanizing 32-point margin in '99. Gritwise, here's hoping for another good NDP bid leading to another '97-style split...
22/10/00 Pundit Email:
How you can describe 37-22 as a deadheat is beyond me, but wishful thinking may be involved. The was long a PC stronghold, which will continue liberal if nothing happens. Look for Mr. Day's social agenda to be smoked out on the national stage, however, with a PC recovery being the main result. The PC's should take this one (with both liberal and Alliance voters coming over) if the Alliance/Reform Party starts to fade.
25/10/00 Mr. Mischief Email:
Okay, I didn't have the newspaper clippings of past results directly in front of me when I wrote "dead-heat", but it is a very strong riding for them in 1993. On Oct. 24th. Lloyd Robertson, on C.F.T.O. news, presented this very riding as one of the ridings PUNDITS are watching for the Alliance breakthrough. A campaign source being interviewed refered to it as one of the 5-10 likeliest Alliance gains in Ontario. I am VINDICATED! I AM MISCHIEF!!
25/10/00 Leith R.A. Coghlin Email:
Close, but lead goes to Alliance, who are running well known candidate Reg Petersen. Of the local constituency associations, the Cambridge C.A. Association has the most members and by far the largest election machine in the city. Expect the race to be close but an Alliance victory should Day project well nationally. If the Alliance has any hopes of winning in Ontario, they have to win this riding.
26/10/00 Brad Nicpon Email:
Ok, this one's going out to Pundit... Did you just predict a PC victory here (oh and also in say 298 of 301 ridings in Canada)? You have got to be kidding... The tories are almost dead in Ontario. (Sorry to have to be the one to tell you) To use your own words it would have to be "wishful thinking" to assume the PCs could win here and that they would get ample voters from Libs and CAs... You laugh at the 37-22 as a deadheat, what's funnier is 37-19. Oh and one more thing... This: "Look for Mr. Day's social agenda to be smoked out on the national stage, however, with a PC recovery being the main result." is the most unlikely and ridiculous thing I have heard to date in this election. I understand you don't personally like Stockwell Day or the Alliance, but that has nothing to do with their national success... Any questions?
17/11/00 Pundit Email:
To Mr. Nicpon, with the benefit of 3 additional weeks behind us, I suppose everyone can assess your comments versus mine. Mr. Day's social agenda has been smoked out and according to the polls more than half of Ontario knows it. I've predicted PC victories in about 20 ridings accross the country, not 298. As of today, I'd estimate that the PC's win closer to 30 ridings. I would encourage you to quit swallowing whatever Alliance HQ is feeding you and take a good look at Day's performance in this campaign. It's hurting the Alliance on the ground and appears to be worse every day.
19/11/00 A.S.
Yeah, Pundit, maybe the Alliance has klanged under the weight of too many Stock Day gaffes. But even if the PCs win around 30 ridings, I can't see Cambridge being among them--it's too blue-collar "low Tory" for Tory-turned-Reform/Alliancers to switch back all that easily. I can see a Burlington going PC, but not a Cambridge. And I'm still waiting to hear how the strong-on-occasion NDP's fareing here...
23/11/00 James T. Richter Email:
Alliance out-signs Peric 2-1. Decent NDP presence. May create a left-wing split. The Tories are barely felt with few signs and a relative unknown as their candidate. At the all candidates debate that was televised, Peric made a fool out of himself and Petersen, while nothing strong, definitely scored some points. He was cool, calm, and focused for the most part. This one will be VERY CLOSE!

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Last Updated 24 November 2000

© 2000 Milton Chan
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