Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
John Finley
Canadian Alliance:
Patricia Smith
Progressive Conservative Party:
David MacKenzie
New Democratic Party:
Shawn Rouse
Canadian Action Party:
Alex Kreider
John Thomas Markus

John Finley

Previous Result:

Surrounding Ridings:

Population: 92 888
Avg Household Income 46 789
Submitted Information
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21/10/00 Brad N. Email:
Oxford is a generally conservative riding with a high population of farmers and small town residents. If there are going to be any Liberal seats lost in the SW this could be one of the first. Also, I have talked to some people in the riding who are not sure if the Liberal will win again... Could also be a PC upset...
22/10/00 J Smith Email:
Former police chief David MacKenzie is running again for the PC's in this riding. He is popular, and almost won last time around. The Tories will do everything in their power to make sure that Mackenzie is victorious this time. PC gain.
23/10/00 Email:
Too close. According to the Globe and Mail this riding should be the fourth most winnable riding for the CA based on the results of the last election. If the CA is able to attract 46% of the people who voted Tory in 1997 they should be able to take Oxford.
02/11/00 A.S.
Of all '97's Grit marginals and ultra-marginals in '97, this, together with Leeds-Grenville, was the only one where the real scare from the right came not from Reform, but from PC--and not only that, Chief David MacKenzie's running again. If there's only *one* riding in Ontario that can buck the vaporized-Tory trend, to the degree that even the electors'll be willing to make that strategic choice against the grain of the Alliance, it's this one. The only real thing standing in the way of Finley being flicked to kingdom come is, yup, you guessed it, MacKenzie's Tory, not Alliance...
07/11/00 Email:
CTV News's Election 2000 site has this one ear-marked as a very possible Tory upset.
17/11/00 Pundit Email:
This is the PC's most winnable seat and I think they'll get there on voting day. Clark has been head and shoulders above the other leaders, which will be important here. In addition, the Alliance decline in Ontario will have to loosen up some of the anti-liberal vote as well as make it safer for soft liberals to consider the PC's without the fear of the Alliance to keep them with Chretien. Count on this to be the first Ontario riding to go PC on election night.
20/11/00 Dave Fleet Email:
My family has lived in Woodstock for years, and I can't see the Liberals getting beaten here. There are a lot of PC signs and lots of Alliance signs, but there are probably more Liberals signs that either of those ones. Vote splitting is a reality here. The PCs are running well behind province-wide, but they have the better candidate. The Alliance is running ahead in the polls, but has an unknown candidate. If Mackenzie was one of Day's boys, I would give it to him. But the vote is going to split and Finley is going to cruise in again right up the middle.
24/11/00 the shadow Email:
I'd like the Alliance to win here. And if the PC's were a non-entity, they would. This riding is in the heart of Ontario's bible belt so the social conservative message of the Alliance is quite effective. Unfortuately, the CHP is quite active here as well and this will undeniably, pull support away from the Allaince. Even thought the CHP will only poll 1-2% in the whole country, there are several ridings - Oxford and Durham for example - where the CHP vote will actually allow the Liberals to sneak up the middle. Will the fringe parties ever learn that their efforts acutally result in the promotion of that which they seek to remove?
24/11/00 Email:
Not even MacKenzie will be able to stop the Liberal tide rolling over Ontario, a tide that will probably mean the return of all the 101 Dalmations elected in 1997.
24/11/00 SM Email:
I just can't see this riding going to the Tories. When it comes to the Tories "almost" winning last time, I just think that someone should remind MacDonald that almost doesn't count. I can only see their support dimming this time around. The Alliance's "growing" popularity amoung right leaning Ontarians could only bring the Tories more grief here.
24/11/00 RM Email:
Word from the war rooms and in the riding says that Oxford will be going PC on Nov 27th. The Tory numbers are going up, and a Friday evening rally in Woodstock will solidify a lot of support.
26/11/00 lrs Email:
best chance for Tories- Clark twice to riding- but will Ca split vote with good woman candidate should not be a Liberal seat but I fear Lib gets seat by small margin- if Lib win- again PC and Ca have to get together
26/11/00 Mark R.
The incumbent Liberal MP in this riding is invisible. He has less signs throughout the riding than the NDP candidate. I've yet to speak with one person who will vote Liberal this time. This was a PC riding until the Liberal landslide in '93. Joe Clark has been here twice during the election with the last rally in Woodstock on Friday with over 2,000 people on hand. This riding will be one of the few PC victories in Ontario on Monday night.
26/11/00 Email:
The rally on Friday looked to be immensely successful. On TV, the room looked huge and packed. Media reports have varied from 700-2000. If they had time to co-ordinate a major event like that, they must be having some a lot of good fortune on the campaign trail as well.

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Last Updated 26 November 2000

© 2000 Milton Chan
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