Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Rose-Marie Ur
Canadian Alliance:
Ron Young
Progressive Conservative Party:
John J.Phair
New Democratic Party:
Joyce Jolliffe
Canadian Action Party:
Eva Cryderman
Roger James
Green Party:
Dan Valkos

Rose-Marie Ur

Previous Result:

Surrounding Ridings:

Population: 96 182
Avg Household Income 45 251
Submitted Information
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22/10/00 Brad Nicpon Email:
Ok, this is my home riding, so I'll share some info... Rose-Marie Ur has generally been a fairly popular MP here. She is approachable and a generally nice person to deal with. On the other hand, it is important to keep in mind that this is mainly a rural riding. There has been a lot of discontent in the past over C-68 and it has risen again as people are now actually having to register firearms. The CA Fiscal Conservative strategy will sell well here with farmers and themore conservative population, many of whom also favour social conservatism as well (ie. in the town of Mount Brydges). Provincially it was expected that the town of Strathroy (one of the largest centres in the riding) would go pure Liberal but instead it went all PC. Ultimately the fate of L-K-M depends on the success of the CA in Ontario. If they break through they stand an excellent chance of adding this riding to their numbers. However, if no gain is made over the Reform party and the PC candidate actually makes a showing thereby splitting the vote (how many times have we heard that said) then except it to return to Ms. Ur. The NDP will have no presence. I am quite interested to see what happens on the home front this year.
30/10/00 Jeff Bennett
The Riding of Lambton-Kent-Middlesex is home to one of the best Members of Parliament in all of Canada. Rose-Marie Ur is Accessible, Approachable, and Dedicated to her constituents. She has never forgotten where she lives or who she represents. Rose-Marie is comitted to rural values for a rural riding - hard work, personal responsibility, and pride in her community. She has been part of a government with a proven track record of respect for taxpayers including $100 billion in tax cuts, elimination of the $42 billion deficit left by the Mulroney/Campbell Tories, and debt reduction. Rose-Marie is comitted to seeing a balanced approach taken and believes it is time for wise investments in Health Care, Agriculture, Education and the Environment. Ur over Young of the CA by 10,000 votes. Phair(PC)3rd.
31/10/00 A.S.
Wags might say Ur's surname is self-descriptive. An old PC-Lib swinger--Lambton PC, Middlesex Lib, now with a bit of Kent stapled on--it was an upper-mid-level Reform target in '97 (of note: Reform swamped Bosanquet, near where Dudley George was taken down). It's also got a Bible Belt undercurrent, and has been among the strongest if not *the* strongest for CHP federally and FCP provincially. In fact, it was FCP's decision not to field a candidate here that allowed the PCs' Marcel Beaubien to hold on in '99 (and incidentally, to prevail in "Liberal" Strathroy; fundamentally, he vacuumed up all the fundamentalist vote). Don't know if Christian Heritage'll pursue a similar strategy now, but remember: wherever the fundamentalist vote is *that* big, they could be more than ready to heed the call, Day-o, Day-o...
15/11/00 Christopher J. Currie
Rose-Marie Ur is a charter member of the "social conservative" sub-caucus in the Liberal ranks, which also includes Wappel, Szabo, Guarnieri and McTeague. She's bound to siphon off some support which would go to the Alliance (or even the now-decertified CHP) under different circumstances. This isn't the best of all possible scenarios, but it should be enough to hold off the Alliance here.
23/11/00 Philip Shaw Email:
This is an interesting riding. If Ontario farmers register their displeasure with Liberal agriculture policy, it will be here. If the riding goes Liberal, it's pretty clear, Rose-Marie Ur is larger than her party. If the Liberals lose, it could be because of widespread displeasure with no new enhanced agricultural safety net annoucement.

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Last Updated 24 November 2000

© 2000 Milton Chan
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