Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Jean Augustine
Canadian Alliance:
David Court
Progressive Conservative Party:
David Haslam
New Democratic Party:
Richard Banigan
Communist Party:
Ed Bil
Natural Law Party:
Don Jackson
Marxist-Leninist Party:
Janice Murray

Jean Augustine

Previous Result:

Surrounding Ridings
Etobicoke Centre
Mississauga East
Mississauga South
Parkdale-High Park

Population: 103 438
Avg Household Income 53 486
Submitted Information
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14/10/00 A.S. Email:
Because Augustine had the lowest margin of Liberal victory in Toronto in '93--a deceptive stat, due to the lingering personal popularity of the PC's Patrick Boyer--E-L saw a lively, dirty, all-party '97 race that only led to Augustine increasing her advantage. It's still a riding each party would dearly covet: the Alliance to build upon its strong '97 bid; the PCs to take advantage of lingering Boyerism; and even the NDP, with its long if somewhat worn municipal and provincial and occasionally federal history. Which may lead to Augustine yet again vanquishing a donnybrook of the wannabes; but it oughta be fun getting there.
18/10/00 Pundit Email:
This was a strong Tory riding before 1993. Count on the PC comeback to hit here as one of the first ridings to be one.
19/10/00 EP Email:
This was a strong Tory riding before 1993... so were 182 other in the country. If Jean Augustine needs to worry about anyone, she should really worry about the NDP.
25/10/00 IPW Email:
Jean Augustine is an invisible MP. If the HRD department gave out $3.5 billon accross the country, Jean never arranged for much of it to come here. The only time you see her is in her quarterly mailings and hersummer bbq. You never see her on question period or in the local press. If this is what I get having a MP of the government representing me, I think I would be better off having an opposition MP represent me.
03/11/00 JeffW Email:
I agree with EP. Augustine's greatest challenge this time will be from the left. It won't be enough to unseat her, but she'll win with an even smaller plurality.
04/11/00 Commuter
Augustine is going, going, gone... The ultimate "back bencher" will finally be set aside. PC decline to oblivion leaves this one wide open for the Alliance.
06/11/00 Greg Email:
Jean Augustine clearly is trying not to annoy anyone on the left in her riding, because (so I've heard) she's agreed not to attend York University president and Liberal big-wig Lorna Marsden's 'Liberal Party Election Countdown Party', a Nov. 7 bash where Liberals can get together and watch the US election results. Why is this significant? Because the party's being held at York, and about 40% of the teaching staff - the contract faculty and teaching assistants - are out on strike. Attending the party would entail crossing a picket line. Augustine's riding is quite some distance from York and the political fall-out from attending would be minimal, a few votes here and there, but by not attending she's showing she cares more about those few votes than socialising with arrogant and overpaid bureaucrats like Marsden... good instincts.
23/11/00 Fast Eddie
If counting lawn signs were accurate, the Alliance would take this riding, though not by a lot. But then, who posts signs anymore? When I was a kid, almost everybody did. These days, I doubt if it's 1 out 10. (Aside: I just spent a month in the USA before the election. Political signs are all but unknown on private property everywhere I looked.) Augustine ought to be very vulnerable. When I asked what she had done in 7 years, the reply was a list of committees she sat on - but no actual accomplishments. Also, she used to be a close assistant of Chretien's but was fired for incompetence. However, most people don't care about the individual, just the party. They are voting for a president (or dictator) by proxy. Augustine would be defeated if the CA and PCs got together, or if we had runoffs (or preferential ballots, like Australia). But with the split, she will win handily (I predict 40%), with CA second, PC third and everyone else easily losing their the! ir deposits.
24/11/00 Jon Chevreau
This is where I live. The Liberal incumbent is Jean Augustine and the area's demographics and economic status are classic Liberal territory. I'll vote Alliance but signage of the Alliance is minimal: either in public thoroughfares or a few well-to-do homes right on the lake. Liberal signs are more numerous and spread around the whole riding.
26/11/00 A.S.
Actually, lawn-sign wise, Alliance is faring quite well in the traditionally high-Tory areas around the Kingsway--the spectral vindication of CA's Bay Street/National Post strategy--but PC's held its own as well, thanks no doubt to the "Boyer factor" (and Joe Clark visited the riding office early, which must indicate a faint glimmer of hope from the start) On the other hand, the NDP this time feels oddly diminished--I hear that some of its usually-dependable local troops have chosen to "help Valpy" instead. But then, given the abruptness of the election, there was little chance for *anyone* to get properly engaged to *any* candidate. It's my home riding, and not only has there been a paucity of all-candidates forums and coverage, but the only campaign lit I've gotten is from the "lowly", diminished, yet stubbornly committed, heroic-in-spite-of-all NDP. I almost wouldn't be surprised if in spite of a ghostlier campaign (locally *and* nationally), the NDP does *better* here this time than it did in '97...

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Last Updated 27 November 2000

© 2000 Milton Chan
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