Election Prediction Project
British Columbia Provincial Election 2009

Port Moody-Coquitlam

Prediction Changed
9:29 PM 10/02/2009

Constituency Profile

Black, Iain
Your Political Party
Filippelli, James
Green Party
Helps, Rebecca
BC Refederation Party
Vandekerkhove, Donna
Watkins, Shannon

Port Moody-Westwood
(Approx. 65% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

BLOY, Harry
(Approx. 35% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

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09 04 27 Yanzhan Wen
This Riding I think is a liberal leaning one but it is also likely that shannon watkins could win this riding because a lot of young voters and females would most likely vote for her. I agree with you guys, if Ian Black does get elected again i doubt he will still be a minister.
09 04 14 Reagan New Democrat
I agree that this will be the closest seat in the Tri-Cities. It shouldn't be though. Iain Black is an incumbent cabinet minister in a riding which has lost Westwood Plateau, true, but still includes many wealthy neighbourhoods in an increasingly gentrified Port Moody. I'm tempted to call it Liberal myself because to me, this seems like a formula for success.
BUT Iain Black has been an extremely weak performer who was only put into cabinet in the last year, when, really, as Minister of Labour, much of the heavy lifting had been done by his predecessor and there was even less for him to do in this ministry than there would have been had they appointed him Minister of Tourism. Even still, he has angered organized labour (paramedics are picketing his office daily) and has failed to make a name for himself on one provincial or even local issue. If the election is party vs party, Black will win. But if this election is even at all about the local candidate, Black may be in more trouble than we think.
Win or lose, he'll probably be out of cabinet after this election. The only sensible rationale for putting him in cabinet in the first place would be to hold a swing riding for the Liberals.
09 02 10 Predictian
It could be the closest seat in the Tri-Cities area, but I suspect that Iain Black will be back. Although he's a very weak performer and really shouldn't be in Cabinet, Black will be helped by high-end development in Port Moody. I would wager that should the Liberals form government again and accordingly have more choices than currently available, Campbell will leave Black out of Cabinet
09 02 01 smart voter
Iain black took the hard part of the riding under redistribution but with his cabinet profile incumbent status and the new development on the north shore of port moody he willl hold the seat for the BC Liberals.

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