Election Prediction Project
British Columbia Provincial Election 2009


Prediction Changed
3:09 PM 26/04/2009

Constituency Profile

Hayer, Dave
Green Party
Singh, Gerald
Zanon, Pat

HAYER, Dave S.
(Approx. 70% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

(Approx. 20% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

Surrey-Green Timbers
(Approx. 10% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

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09 03 02 BJ
A good chunk of this riding is situate east of Hwy 1 and is known as Fraserview Heights, a very upper middle-class single-family area that voted heavily Liberal in 2005. Considerable additional dwellings have been constructed here since 2005.
With redistribution, the Liberals would have won this seat in 2005 by a 48.7% to 41.6%, a 7% margin when the Liberals had an overall provincial winning margin of 4%. Today, Mustel places that Liberal winning margin up at 16%.
09 02 16 TAN
A quick little bit of back-of-the-envelope math suggests that redistribution ought to narrow the margin of BCLib victory from 2500 to ~450 votes.
Now, that's assuming completely homogeneous margins of victory in each poll in the various predecessor ridings, which is a huge cheat given Surrey's political geography. I haven't had a chance to see numbers from anyone who's actually crunched the detailed numbers to see if this guesstimate is in the ballpark.
With that in mind, I think we can (somewhat generously) describe this seat as in play. If current provincewide polling numbers hold and the NDP don't muster a good ground game, Hayer is back. If there is a change of government, though, this might be one of the seats that causes it.

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