Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-08-27 11:20:00

Constituency Profile


Allen, Mike

Chiasson, Chuck

Cyr, Pierre

McGlynn, Rish

Mike Allen

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • new-brunswick-southwest (14/149 Polls)
  • tobique-mactaquac (155/155 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 02 C.A.B.
    In 2008, Mike Allen increased his share of the vote by a whopping 13.6 points from 2006 - he also opened up his margin of victory from one point to 36. Truly impressive, especially for such an obscure backbencher. Along with the classic Ontario-style vote splitting in 2000 (where, with 30%, the Alliance got their best result in the Atlantic), and Savoy barely holding on despite the widespread Maritime trepidation over Harper in 2004 (and then being the only Liberal incumbent in the Atlantic to fall in 2006), this adds up to a solid Tory win. In fact, if I were a betting man, I might wager on Tobique-Mactaquac overtaking New Brunswick Southwest as the best Tory riding in the province (and likely the Atlantic) this time around.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    This was only competitive in 2004 and 2006 due to Andy Savoy's personal popularity who won in 2000 due to PC/Alliance vote splitting. He was one of the more right wing Liberal members. After seeing the Tories get almost triple what the Liberals did, this should end any discussion of this being a swing riding. The Liberals may pick up ridings in New Brunswick, but not this one.
    10 10 30 binriso
    Three of the six Conservative seats in NB will be huge wins and this is one of them. Everything seems to be going the CPC's way here, probably won’t get much of a challenge and in the recent provincial election, the PC's support was highest in this area, which contained the riding of the current premier, which only adds to their momentum.
    09 11 18 R.O.
    one thing i found interesting about the New Brunswick ridings when looking thru the numbers as it has took the conservative party a couple of elections to combine the so called pc and alliance votes here . this riding was always seen as the perfect example of a vote split riding as the liberals won it in 2000 with only 10000 votes during an election where the pc and alliance combined got 20000 . yet in 2004 under the merged party the conservatives only got 13000 votes here and when they finally won in 2006 it was a very close race. although by 2008 current mp Mike Allen got 18000 so they have clearly managed to combine the right of centre votes it just took a couple of elections. as for the liberals without an incumbent mp like Andy Savoy i just don't see them being competitve in such a riding at this time.
    09 09 03 Stevo
    This is a strange riding. It was, bar none, the strongest Atlantic Canada seat for Reform and Alliance. In the 2000 election, the combined Tory and Alliance vote garnered 65% of the total, and the Liberal candidate squeaked in. Victory looked inevitable. It looked for the merged CPC in 2004 but, astoundingly, Andy Savoy was re-elected with a relatively strong 3000-vote margin over Mike Allen. Allen himself went on to win his own squeaker in 2006 and then like dynamite his popular vote exploded to 57% in 2008!
    I guess what this tells us is that rural New Brunswickers love their Conservative MPs, but play hard to get. Once the Conservative MP is in, however, he/she is in for good. Just witness the equally strong Tory vote in NB-Southwest and Fundy.
    09 08 26 Sean P.F.
    After a close victory in 2006, Mike Allen won a strong re-election in 2008. Expect him to hold Tobique-Mactaquac come election day. He will not win as big as last time, when the Liberal vote collapsed due to the Green Shift, but he will win by a comfortable margin.

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