Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2011


La prévision a changé
2011-05-01 22:37:00

Profil de circonscription


Carrier, Robert

Doré Lefebvre, Rosane

Iacono, Angelo G.

Lefebvre, Pierre

Millette, Régent

Perceval-Maxwell, Dylan

Robert Carrier

prévision historiques

  • 2008 prévision
  • 2006 prévision
  • 2004 prévision
  • 2000 prévision
  • laval-est (202/222 Polls)
  • Référence:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 05 01 Stéphane Gaudet
    Le Bloc n'a pas gagné par de fortes majorités à Laval, qui n'est pas particulièrement souverainiste. Il n'en faudrait pas gros pour que le NPD gagne dans ce comté, comme dans le reste de Laval. Un swing de 13,5% suffirait. Avec des sondages qui indiquent un swing d'environ 20% au Québec, des libéraux qui s'écroulent et des conservateurs qui n'ont jamais réussi à percer dans la région de Montréal, attendez-vous à ce que les comtés de Laval virent orange demain soir.
    11 05 01 expat
    Even on the last day of polls, there are no signs of any break in the NDP dominance of Quebec - they are maintaining and/or increasing the lead we have been seeing all week. I've been waiting for these numbers to call a lot of borderline ridings like this - half expecting to see a little deflation in the NDP support. Since it hasn't happened, I feel much more comfortable predicting some of these based solely on the math, without necessarily having much personal knowledge.
    Alfred-Pellan is easier than some in that regard -- in 2008 it was Bloc 39%, Liberal 29%, Conservative 16%, and NDP 12%.
    With the each of the other parties losing between 1/4 and 1/3 of their vote (evidently to the NDP), a riding like this with a split vote makes it all the easier for the NDP to overtake all of them.
    The allophone population here (22%) will help the Liberals hold a chunk of their vote, but it won't be big enough for them to win. The Bloc is losing too much of their support - they'll fall below 30%, probably lower.
    If the Quebec polls are even remotely accurate, this will be a NDP gain.
    11 05 01 rsg
    The same secenario can be applied here, if the NDp take a huge chunk of the Bloc vote, it's likely the Liberals will be a beneficiary in this riding.
    11 04 29 myNDP2senseworth
    I came up with a very simple mathematical analysis using 2008 results that can be applied to Incumbent Bloc ridings in South Western Quebec.
    The math is simple, indeed probably too simple, but it is simple enough to find where some battlegrounds might exist.
    The math is this:
    Subtract 30% from the Bloc and add it to the NDP
    Subtract 10% from all other parties and add it to the NDP
    In Alfred-Pellan the results of this math are:
    NDP - 15,231
    Bloc - 14,480
    LIB - 14,035
    This math is making me predict an NDP victory but as we also see, it creates a virtual 3 way tie... making me actually predict this one as TCTC.
    11 04 25 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    So Duceppe has dragged out former premier parizeau and stepped up the seperatists rhetoric in light of Jackomania in Quebec. This might not be a good move as doing so will turn off soft nationalists and get the non-francophone communities to turning out in droves to vote against the BQ. This riding has grown a fair bit in recent years and a significant number of voters are Italian and Greek (amongst other identifiable ethnic groups). These voters will probably vote Liberal (as liberal numbers are holding in Quebec) and although the BQ will get the hardline seperatist vote out for them, the NDP will still win big with the softer francophone vote. Bottom line, you could a three or even four way race.
    11 04 21 binriso
    Probable Bloc hold with Liberals down a bit. Hard to believe that any sort of challenge here might come from the NDP, considering they were below 1% of the vote in 2000 and 7th behind *both* Marijuana and Green......
    11 04 16 M. Lunn
    Although this is a riding the Liberals could win under the right conditions, they haven't really taken off in Quebec and with two weeks remaining, I just don't see how they can pull this off. Most polls show Dion was doing better in Quebec than Ignatieff although worse nationally, so Bloc hold here.
    11 04 14 Neal
    This riding stays Bloc unless the Bloc descends into chaos, if Marois loses her confidence vote, and the focus shifts to Duceppe and his future. If that happens, then the advantage shifts Liberal.
    11 04 11 Paul Tremblay
    I don't understand why this riding is ‘too close to call’, the Liberals are not going to win any riding they don't already have in Quebec this year except if they have a really strong candidate (not the case here) and the Bloc candidate is really weak (not the case here either), and even in such cases a Liberal win is not necessarily guaranteed.
    The one thing that could conceivably be an advantage for the Liberals are the demographic changes underway in Laval, but these changes are not happening fast enough to give them a chance this time. Things may be different in five or ten years, but the Bloc will win easily this time.
    11 04 02 M.Lunn
    The Bloc Quebecois certainly has the edge here, however this riding is not as solidly separtist as either the east end of Montreal or the Northern suburbs. If the Liberals can get close to 30% in Quebec they may have a shot at this, otherwise it should stay Bloc
    10 04 04 R.O.
    I was reading an article on this riding about a visit by some liberal mp's to the riding and they mentioned in it the liberals think they can win this riding . although i'm not really sure of that at this point but the bloc support in the riding has oddly gone down since they first won it in 2004 when they got almost 50 % to only 38 % in 2008 . it should also be mentioned the ndp support in the riding may be growing at the bloc's expense as in 04 ndp got about 4 % here but by 08 got 12 % . but i still think bloc mp Robert Carrier will be difficult to beat and if the bloc continue to lead in the quebec polls they maintain an advantage here as the federalist candidates here aren't that high profile or unlikely to be so as conservatives haven't nominated here yet.
    Je lisais un article sur cette circonscription d'une visite par un d?put? lib?ral de la circonscription et ils y sont mentionn?es les lib?raux pensent qu'ils peuvent gagner cette circonscription. Bien que je ne suis pas vraiment s?r de ce ? ce point, mais l'appui du Bloc dans la circonscription a curieusement baiss? depuis leur premi?re il a remport? en 2004 quand ils sont arriv?s pr?s de 50% ? 38% seulement en 2008. Il convient ?galement de mentionner l'appui du NDP dans la circonscription peuvent ?tre de plus en plus ? la charge du bloc comme en 04 NDP ont obtenu environ 4% ici, mais le 08 a obtenu 12%. mais je pense que la d?put?e bloquiste Robert Carrier sera difficile ? battre et si le bloc de continuer ? mener dans les sondages au Qu?bec, ils maintenir un avantage, ici, que les candidats f?d?ralistes ici ne sont pas que la notori?t? ou peu susceptible d'?tre que les conservateurs n'ont pas d?sign? ici encore.
    09 11 23 JFBreton
    Je révise ma position. À la lumière des sondages actuels, le Bloc maintiendra son avance par division du vote fédéraliste entre Libéraux et Conservateurs. Pour espérer une défaite du Bloc, il faudrait une remontée libérale et un excellent candidat. Ce qui me paraît peu probable dans l'état actuel des choses.
    09 08 29 JF Breton
    Circonscription à cheval entre l'Île de Laval et les Basses-Laurentides. Avec un excellent candidat libéral et un faible candidat conservateur, la majorité bloquiste pourrait fondre. Pour l'instant: TCTC.

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