| ||11 05 01
|The fact that Conservative Sylvie Boucher placed 3rd in the latest poll is bad news for her. It's possible that she could still win since riding polls can have a large margin of error, but being 3rd is a disturbing sign. It looks like this race is between the NDP and the BQ, but it's hard to know for sure who will actually be strongest on Election Day.|
| ||11 04 30
|It's my own riding - So I get to vote here on Monday. I know that Le Soleil had an orange cover yesterday - ‘Tsunami Orange’ was the headline - that alone will get people to vote NDP across the city.|
Which seats are the NDP likely to win (in order) - Beauport-Limoilou, Charlesbourg, Louis-Hebert, Portneuf, Quebec, Louis-St-Laurent and then Montmorency and the South shore ridings going towards Trois-Rivières (in particular Mégantic and Lotbinière).
I think the NDP will win 3 - 5 seats in the region but it is so difficult to be sure.
Well, Paul, I think you are wrong and I live in the riding.
The voters who voted for the stump - Sylvie Boucher - had no idea what they were voting for and the same applies to Raymond Côté.
They vote because they want to ‘win their election’ ‘Est-ce que tu gagné ton election?’.
Le soleil gave this seat to the NDP yesterday with their orange cover.
Plus I get to vote against her.
| ||11 04 29
|There's a good chance that Sylvie Boucher will lose her seat, but I have serious doubts about who will win. Single-riding polls are often unreliable, and while the NDP is ahead by six points in that poll, they have no organization and it is not obvious at all that their supporters will actually vote, as Thomas Mulcair said a few days ago ‘you can't put a poll in a ballot box’.|
The fact that the CPC itself expects to lose is to me much more significant than that single-riding poll.
You can be sure that the Bloc will do absolutely everything they can to gain this seat as they actually still have a chance to win and there is a good chance that it will pay off for them.
The thing that could help the NDP here is the fact that separatism is not popular in the Greater Quebec City area and some Tories could therefore switch to the NDP, however that number will be limited, as most CPC voters find the NDP to be an almost communist party.
And there's always a possibility that Boucher could pull another miracle for the CPC this year, although for some reason I don't believe this is in the cards.
Still too close to call although I think the Bloc unfortunately has the best chance here.
| ||11 04 29
|CROP poll in today's La Presse: NDP 36%, BQ 30%, CPC 27% - the NDP candidate is the pick of the litter in Quebec City!|
| ||11 04 29
|Le sondage CROP dans la région de Québec confirme ma prédiction: NPD 36%, BQ 30 %, PCC 27%. Pas pour rien que Harper passe ses derniers jours de campagne dans la Capitale nationale, des sièges qu'on croyait acquis aux conservateurs !|
| ||11 04 28
||Tory in Dixie|
|Si l'NPD vont gagner une circonscription dans les environs de Quebec, ce sera Beauport. Les sondanges indiquent, avec l'appui de 45 pour cent, que L'NPD ont une chance excellent.|
| ||11 04 29
|«Dans Beauport-Limoilou, la conservatrice Sylvie Boucher voit ses appuis fondre à seulement 27% après répartition des indécis. Le porte-couleur du NPD, Raymond Côté, est en tête avec 36% des voix, soit une avance de six points pourcentage sur son plus proche adversaire, le bloquiste Michel Létourneau. Élue pour la première fois en 2006, Mme Boucher récoltait 36% des appuis au début de la campagne contre 20% à M. Côté, selon un coup de sonde CROP.» (Source: Le Soleil, 29 avril 2011)|
| ||11 04 28
|‘Les stratèges conservateurs envisagent aussi maintenant une défaite dans Beauport-Limoilou, circonscription détenue par la conservatrice Sylvie Boucher depuis 2006. «Cette circonscription va nous échapper soit au profit du NPD soit du Bloc québécois», a affirmé la source conservatrice.’|
Selon cet article lu sur Cyberpresse, les conservateurs s'attendent donc à perdre le comté, soit aux mains du Bloc, soit aux mains du NPD. Considérant que la lutte à Québec est une lutte à trois BQ-PCC-NPD (31-31-28 selon un sondage) et que le NPD est un parti fédéraliste, le NPD devrait gagner au moins un siège dans la région de Québec. De plus, avec le quartier Limoilou dans ses limites, c'est un comté qui colle bien avec le profil du NPD. S'il devait gagner un seul siège dans la capitale nationale, ce serait celui-là. Victoire NPD.
| ||11 04 27
|Déjà, en 2008, plusieurs commentateurs donnaient le PCC perdant ici. Je mise ici sur un transfert de vote entre le Bloc et le NPD, ce qui permettra aux conservateurs de se faufiler. Les libéraux ne sont tout simplement pas dans la course.|
| ||11 04 26
|If the NDP wins a seat in this region of Quebec, it will be this seat.|
| ||11 04 25
|Left Coast: You know nothing about this riding. The voters are notoriously fickle everywhere in Quebec. Look at the pundits review of this riding. It was a Liberal-BQ fight in 2000 and even in 2004 the Liberals were second. Only because of Adscam in 2006 were the Cons able to win (and given the candidate selected - they didn't expect to win). They hung on in '08 because some many people stayed home.|
Committed voters simply don't exist. This is a federalist riding (Charlesbourg a little less so, Louis-Hebert a bit more so and Louis St.Laurent the most federalist and Quebec the least federalist - but still majority federalist). Voter splits are the most interesting aspect and also how solid is the nationalist vote.
Still too early to call.
| ||11 04 23
||From the Left Coast|
|As we get to the last week, I would like to predict this will remain a Tory Riding, although it will be close as per the last 2 election result.|
1) local polling: http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/04/23/graeme-hamilton-in-the-quebec-city-region-the-voters-are-immune-to-left-leaning-politics/ has Mme. Boucher slightly ahead
2) Bloc votes are less committed than Tory votes
3) NDP is splitting the Bloc vote
4) Just a hunch, a collapse of the Liberal vote (which may migrant to NDP and/or Tory)
Overall, Mme Boucher will ‘live another day’
| ||11 04 23
|La bataille de Québec n'aura pas lieu. La question de l'amphithéâtre et l,attitude du maire Labeaume face aux conservateurs ne semble avoir AUCUN impact sur le vote. Si le Bloc arrachait des sièges au PCC dans la capitale, ce serait davantage à cause de transferts de voix du PCC vers le NPD (le nPD prend des votes à tout le monde, pas seulement au Bloc).|
Ce serait une lutte à trois à Québec présentement (Bloc et PCC ex-aequo à 31% et NPD à 28%), tout peut arriver. Mais je parierais plutôt sur le statu quo, comme les sondages Segma l'indiquent.
| ||11 04 20
|The BQ is not making progress. Today's CROP poll shows the Conservatives 3 points ahead of the BQ. The BQ still has a shot, but they are going to have to pick up the pace if they want to win:|
Beauport-Limoilou: Cons - 35%, BQ - 32%, NDP - 20%, Lib - 11%
| ||11 04 16
|Gilles Duceppe met today with the Mayor of Quebec City, Regis Lebaume. The question is, what effect will Lebaume and the hockey arena scandal have on the campaign? So far, the BQ has not been getting as much momentum over the hockey arena scandal as they expected. Will Mr. Duceppe's meeting with the Mayor improve the BQ's chances? We will have to see whether the Mayor tells voters to vote BQ and defeat the Conservatives. The Conservatives may be able to hang on here if the BQ does not get the anti-Conservative vote.|
| ||11 04 15
|Le candidat du Bloc fût interviewé à la radio de Québec et à refusé d'affirmer que le parti conservateur n'est pas d'extrême-droite. De plus, le fait que Gilles Duceppe ait dit oui à la liste de Labeaume a mit le feu aux poudres aux gens de Québec. Mr Duceppe prend vraiment la population de Québec pour des caves, il ne pourra jamais livré aucune de ses promesses.|
| ||11 04 11
|Gilles Duceppe felt necessary to ‘correct’ his candidate in Beauport-Limoilou after he described the Conservatives as ‘extreme right’ on his Twitter account yesterday.|
This can't possibly help the Bloc in a tight race in an area where the only major complaint against the government is about the arena issue.
The Bloc still has a chance to win this seat, but things just got more difficult for them.
| ||11 04 07
With Conservatives ridiculous show (Nordiques Shirts) on Coliseum and Harper's stance on it, it is clear that voting on the right side argument will no longer apply to this riding. People want their Nordiques, as to better hate Montreal...
So, the overall Montreal-CBC-Plateau-hating strategy is backfiring at hands of conservatives, as their involvement in Quebec city is minimal, at best. No airport runway will save this riding from the Separatists. Shift to BQ.
| ||11 04 02
|With the arena funding announcement and the Conservatives struggling numbers in Quebec, they face an uphill battle to hold this and thus I would lean towards the Bloc. However, the Conservatives still do reasonable well amongst older Quebecers who are most likely to show up thus I wouldn't rule them out in terms of holding this, but it will be an uphill battle|
| ||11 03 30
|Boucher's performance as a MP has earned mixed reviews and her margin of victory in 2008 was small. However many people believed in 2008, quite logically, that she would lose her seat, and she actually increased her margin of victory compared to 2006.|
A Bloc win is certainly a possibility due to the arena issue, but Boucher still has the huge advantage of being the clear federalist alternative to the Bloc and for this reason I believe she still has a reasonable chance to keep her seat.
| ||11 03 30
|Boucher's less than impressive but because she's a government MP she wins this riding.|
| ||11 03 27
|The 2008 results in the riding of Beauport-Limoilou were very close to the average results of the parties in the larger region (the average for the seven or so ridings in the region). For the Bloc, the 2008 results were: 33% in the riding and 33% in the region. For the Conservative party: 37% in the riding and 36% in the region. For the Liberal party: 14% in the riding and 17% in the region. In other words, the 2008 results in this riding and the results in the region were very similar. Now, the 21-24 March 2011 Segma poll shows the voting intentions in the region at 37% Bloc, 30% Conservative and 14% Liberal. (The margin of error is 4%.) If it is assumed that the vote tendancy in the riding is still similar to the average vote tendency in the region at large, and if that poll is relatively correct, and unless particular factors change something, then it looks like this riding may go to the Bloc.|
| ||11 03 26
|It should be interesting. I got it right in Sept. 2008 - one problem is that I live in Limoilou and not in Beauport. The 2 areas are not that similar.|
Boucher will probably be as absent as possible. I don't think it will make much difference. It will be interesting to see the Liberal's strength in the region. A little earlier to call but I suspect the Tories will bleed everywhere in the Quebec City region.
| ||11 03 26
||Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina|
|This is the weakest of the Conservative ridings in Quebec City. They did not expect to win it in 2006 when they did, and while they held on in 2008, the area issue will cost them this seat.|
| ||11 03 15
||Dr Bear & Prof Ape|
|YOINK! That's the sound of Iggy yanking the rug out from under Harper & Boucher. He announced that the Liberals would fund an arena for Quebec City. The CPC have been taking a beating in the QC area polls because of their refusal to support the arena project and this announcement should be just enough to take votes away from the CPC to ensure a BQ victory. Liberals won't win this and right now the Liberals need to hit the CPC where they are weakest. Even if it means that another party benefits. This can all pass by the time an election comes but at the moment Iggy has done the BQ a big favour.|
| ||11 03 10
|A new Léger poll released today shows the Conservatives have apparently fallen way behind the BQ in the Quebec City region because of the arena controversy:|
| ||11 03 06
|This appears to be the most vulnerable of the Quebec seats for the Conservatives. They won it by a small margin in 2008, and a Segma poll projection from January 2011 showed the BQ leading here with 43% versus 22% for the Conservatives.|
On top of that the Quebec City Conservatives are in hot water now from the Mayor of Quebec City after the Feds said they will not fund the new Quebec arena. Thus, this riding may now be leaning towards the BQ based on the above factors. We will have to wait until the election starts to get the latest numbers before making a final prediction.
| ||08 09 13
|Got to call it, one way or the other. Bloc or Conservative.|
Only way to see this riding is that it is Federalist and Conservative. Maybe a stronger Liberal vote will let the bloc win or something stupid from the candidate (like in Louis-Hebert) will swing it to the bloc.
However, Sylvie seems to be silent and absent in my part of the riding anyway. Probably a good policy.
| ||09 09 12
|This is probably target number one or two for the BQ, very close the last two elections could tip to them because of the CPC unpopularity in Quebec.|
| ||09 09 11
|I would agree with a couple of the posts below - it is too soon to be predicting a Conservative hold here.|
The Conservatives seem to be polling at about 15-20% recently, but we will have to see whether they drop further after Harper's new video attacking the ?socialists and separatists? came out yesterday. As JF Breton said below, the Conservatives already have some survey data indicating that they could lose some of their Quebec seats including this one, and that was before Harper's latest remarks about the ?separatists? that already caused him problems last year.
| ||09 09 10
|Les conservateurs ont utilis? cet ?t? les ressources d'une firme priv?e de Toronto, Responsive Marketing Group. Selon leur analyse, seuls Maxime Bernier (Beauce), Jos?e Verner (Louis-Saint-Laurent), Christian Paradis (M?gantic-l'?rable) et Jean-Pierre Blackburn (Jonqui?re-Alma) pourraient dormir tranquilles. Le si?ge des six autres ?lus est en danger s'il y a des ?lections cet automne (Lawrence Cannon, Sylvie Boucher, Denis Lebel, Steven Blaney et Daniel Petit). L'analyse conclut ?galement que si les intentions de vote remontent l?g?rement, le si?ge de Jacque Gourde (Lotbini?re-Chute-de-la-Chaudi?re) serait sauv?.[source: Le Devoir, 10 septembre 2009] Ce qui me fait dire que le Bloc a des bonnes chances de reprendre Beauport-Limoilou, surtout qu'il a d?cid? de cibler la r?gion de Qu?bec.|
| ||09 09 03
|When a federalist incumbent MP runs again in Quebec, this automatically means a clear two-way race and in such races the federalist incumbent has a huge advantage as it is then harder for the Bloc to win due to federalist vote-splitting. Federalist voters know who to vote for in order to avoid a Bloc victory.|
Recent polls seem to agree that the Conservative Party has rebounded in Quebec and they should get about 20 percent of the vote in the province. If the Conservatives crash to 15 percent or less they could lose this seat but I don't expect this to happen.
I therefore predict a Conservative victory.
| ||09 08 29
|In my opinion all these predictions that wyatt keeps making about Conservative incumbents in Quebec holding their seats seems too early to me. This riding is too close to call as I believe are several Quebec ridings with Conservative incumbents. We do not know what will happen in the next federal election. It is hard to say for sure how the Conservatives will do in Quebec in the next federal election. But many polls have put the Conservatives currently at around 15% in Quebec. Those numbers could change. But if the 15% figure held until election day I'd personally expect this particular riding to flip to the Bloc given the closeness of the margin last time. If the 15% figure held it is hard to say what would happen in other Tory-held Quebec ridings won by large margins such as Beauce, Louis-Saint-Laurent, etc. But of note is that Boucher does not have a new Parliamentary Secretary position, contrary to what wyatt said. Boucher has been Parliamentary Secretary for Status of Women since October 2007, well before the 2008 election that she won only narrowly. During Harper's first term in office she was also Parliamentary Secretary to the Prime Minister. After the 2008 election she was actually demoted because in the post-election portfolio shuffle she lost her job as PS to the Prime Minister and has since then been only PS for Status of Women. So in contrast to what wyatt said, Boucher has no new PS position so I don't see how her current PS position would guarantee her a win in the next election. Instead this riding is too close to call.|
| ||09 08 27
|Boucher's percentage of the vote went down, but her lead over her opponent widened. With her new PS spot, she should hold the riding.|