Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2011


La prévision a changé
2009-09-03 16:35:00

Profil de circonscription


Cardin, Serge

Deslauriers, Éric

Dusseault, Pierre-Luc

Harvey, Pierre

Laberge, Jacques

Landry, Crédible Berlingot

Serge Cardin

prévision historiques

  • 2008 prévision
  • 2006 prévision
  • 2004 prévision
  • 2000 prévision
  • richmond-arthabaska (12/215 Polls)
  • sherbrooke (199/212 Polls)
  • Référence:

  • Pundits’ Guide


    Nous n'aimons pas des films publicitaires non plus, mais quelqu'un doivent payer le loyer. Remplacez-l'avec votre annonce de campagne ! Voir les détails de patronage.

    11 04 30 Berlingot Crédible
    I've heard that Yves Mondoux couldn't participate to this election as previously planned, but that he would be interested to participate in the next one in Sherbrooke if he can. That was way before the NDP started to show up as a serious chalenger in Québec.
    For the conservative candidate, he told a newspaper that he expected to get about 40%. That just doesn't make sense. The most likely explanation is that they made a huge mistake, like telling people at the starting of the survey that they are working for the conservative candidate.
    The liberals and the conservative will be strugling to get the required 10% to be able to get back half of their expenses.
    NDP will get a solid 2nd position with about 20% if it's supporters bother to go to vote, but no treat to Serge Cardin. That means that supporter of the Bloc don't need to bother to vote and can safely stay at home ;o)
    11 04 27 expat
    Last time out, the NDP ran a ‘star’ candidate here (TV host Yves Mondoux). Had he run again this time, Cardin would almost certainly be losing this seat.
    But Cardin may have lucked out, as the NDP ended up running a local university student (at least, in this case, one from the riding instead of parachuted in from outside).
    I expect a close final result, but the Bloc should manage to hold this seat - although a NDP upset still can't be ruled out in a year like this (if they are really polling 40% across Quebec - as the most recent Forum Research polls claims - that represents an increase of 26% over their 2008 result, while the Bloc is losing a full 15% of the vote-- apply those numbers to Sherbrooke, and the math would produce a NDP victory).
    Will the vote swing be that high consistently across Quebec? Will it happen in Sherbrooke?
    But whatever the swing between the Bloc and the NDP turns out to be, there is absolutely no chance that the Conservative or Liberal will manage to sneak through a ‘vote split’ and win it. Neither party starts with a sufficient base (both consistently under 20% in recent elections), and they are polling less across Quebec this year than in 2008.
    My head says the NDP will win here, but my gut tells me the Bloc will manage to narrowly retain the seat. Flip a coin.
    11 04 24 binriso
    Regardless of a local poll the Bloc are likely going to win here. The Conservative post is partisan to the highest degree. They will likely be in fourth place.
    11 04 22 E Rougeau
    I hope nobody base their analysis over the number gaved by one of the worst local newspaper of all province of Quebec. La Tribune is a BQ propaganda tool. The internal surveys will show NDP, Cons and Libs way closer than the number showed.
    11 04 21 binriso
    In riding poll puts the Bloc near 60 percent. The NDP is the only other party polling in double digits (!!).
    11 04 20 rsg
    Sherbrooke est bien sur comme cela a ete mentionne le plus ferme riding de Jean Charest quand il a couru comme un progressiste-conservateur. Il faudrait un candidat veritable star par toute partie a la defaite du Bloc candidat Serge Cardin , qui est generalement apprecie par les deux soverientists et federalistes
    11 04 14 Corriveau
    Les conservateurs ont fini troisième à la dernière élection, et la candidature de Pierre Harvey, honnêtement... ce n'est même pas un argument pour que cette circonscription change!
    11 04 12 E Rougeau
    Bloc is really strong here but the conservatives finally placed a candidate that can rightfully own a ministry in Pierre Harvey. Businesses and the population in general is interested and happy to finally see some competition to the Bloc candidate.
    Internal numbers showed us the Conservative-Bloc margin in Sherbrooke is the closest ever since the departure of Jean Charest and Bloc number are still going down and if it continues, the Conservatives may overpass de BQ in the last week of the election here.
    11 03 30 Tony Ducey
    This has been Bloc since Charest left, don't see it changing now.
    11 03 28 M.Lunn
    This may have voted for Jean Charest federally and provincially, but since his departure federally, the Bloc has had little difficulty holding this regardless of whom the Tories or Liberals put up.
    09 09 02 JF Breton
    Plus de 15000 voix de majorité pour le Bloc lors des dernières élections. Serge Cardin a choisi de ne pas faire le saut en politique municipale. Circonscription sûre pour le bloc.

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