Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-08-26 14:08:00

Constituency Profile


Arlow, Will

Fisher, John

Hiemstra, Carl

Preston, Joe

Sinclair, Fred

Warwick, Graham

Joe Preston

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • elgin-middlesex-london (210/218 Polls)
  • perth-middlesex (8/204 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 19 MF
    Ryan Dolby's resignation and endorsement of the Liberal not withstanding, strategic voting just isn't going to work here. Joe Preston won by a very wide margin last time, and the gap between the Liberals and NDP last time was so close that it would be hard to get everyone unified behind a single candidate.
    11 04 17 Iron Mike
    Living in this riding and talking to folks on the ground it would be a miracle if Preston does not boost his vote count and win by 15000 votes. Lets be serious, The Liberals and NDP have NO chance here and wouldn't beat this candidate with both of their votes together.
    11 04 15 burlivespipe
    Warwick got a bit of a bounce when the NdP candidate quit and went public with his support. The NdP bounced back but if their support is on a rollercoaster and sags again near voting day, it will swing red. I know the mp is working hard to counter this momentum, but add the guergis issue -- which is going to cost the conservatives votes in Ontario in a demographic that they had hoped to improve -- will make this a changer.
    11 04 08 Tony Ducey
    Might be close given the recent job losses in the riding but for right now Preston is just to strong to lose here.
    11 03 31 Marco Ricci
    NDP candidate Ryan Dolby became one of the political stories of the day when he quit and endorsed the Liberals as the best way to win this riding. However, I don't think the Liberals are in contention to win this riding until they get back into majority territory. Their numbers in Ontario are likely not high enough to win back a riding they haven't held since the Chretien years. The other factor is that it looks like the NDP will be able to nominate a new candidate before the nomination deadline closes, so the NDP vote may still end up splitting the Liberal vote. Still leans Conservative.
    11 03 30 SM
    The N.D.P. candidate is supporting the Liberal candidate and will now not run, although a new candidate will likely be chosen. This changes the situation.
    11 03 30 rebel
    The NDP candidates withdrawal and endorsement of the Liberal candidate will not sufficiently narrow Preton's winning margin to make it close. Otherwise, its very embarrassing for Jack Layton to have one of his candidates essentially suggesting by his action that the NDP has no value as a distinct party.
    11 03 30
    The NDP candidate has thrown his support to the Liberal candidate..This riding is going Liberal
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    The Tories have won this by at least 9 points in each election even during 2004 when they fared rather poorly Ontario.
    11 03 28 C.A.B.
    This seat and Perth-Wellington are mirror images of each other: each elected an MP from the PC wing of the party who won by a comfortable margin in 2004, but has made only incremental gains since, hampered by the leftish tendencies of the riding's largest city (St. Thomas, in this case). It was even a photo finish in 2008: Both candidates got about 48% of the vote with a 25-point margin over the second-place Liberal. For the record, Preston did a little better than Schellenberger, and if I had to guess I'd say that it's he who's the safer of the two. Though certainly, neither is likely to face defeat.
    11 03 27 G.L.
    This is a ‘bell weather riding’ It will be hard for the Liberals to pull a win here but there are encouraging signs.

    Preston has done little to call attention to the pain of the Talbotville Ford closing and the many other sufferings of the local economy. I don't see any evidence of his ability to get funding for local businesses.
    After 6 years of Joe, people may in the mood for an MP concerned with local issues like Graham Warwick, who has a long track record as a rural community activist. They may also be sick of Harpers autocratic style and may be willing to give Ignatieff a chance becuase he is leader who is willing to listen to their concerns.
    11 03 27 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    ‘Note that McGuinty has publicly declined to support/accompany Ignatieff in Ontario, which says more about Ignatieff's/Liberals' non-attractiveness as a choice acceptable to Ontarians.’ or McGuinty was asked not to take part in the federal election as he is unattractive to Ontarian voters as well.
    Despite the spin and redundant Conservative rhetoric, this riding has been solidly for the CPC and will remain so this time around.
    11 03 26 burpnrun
    Very conservative riding, jobs are a critical component of voter sentiment, which includes some backlash towards the opposition parties over the unnecessary nature of the election, phonyness, opportunism, etc. Joe Preston has worked hard to get the funding, and to protect/backfill businesses that are under pressure in the area.
    Good plurality (12,000) in the last election. MPP is a Liberal who is not running again in next (Oct 2010) election, and voters are fed up with McGuinty's Liberals anyway. Note that McGuinty has publicly declined to support/accompany Ignatieff in Ontario, which says more about Ignatieff's/Liberals' non-attractiveness as a choice acceptable to Ontarians.
    09 12 20 A.S.
    Given the record, in almost all likelihood a Tory hold. But it's worth noting that this, of all seats, is among those the NDP's reportedly singling out as an anti-HST target--and in a sleeper/experimental way, it makes sense, given how Ryan Dolby fared not badly in '08 on the back of the damaged auto/manufacturing sector. (One wonders, too, if Jack Layton hopes to tap the ‘Elgin County Populist’ spring which has given us the provincial likes of Premier Hepburn, NDP-reelected-as-independent MPP Peter North, and current Grit Speaker Steve Peters, as well as, federally speaking, one of 2000's closest calls for the Canadian Alliance in Ontario.)
    09 08 25 wyatt
    Preston's nearly 12,000 vote lead in '08 puts this one out of reach for the Grits. His percentage of the vote has grown in each of his elections, and he'll hold with no problem.

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