Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-03-23 00:05:00

Constituency Profile


Heroux, Pat

Laurin-Bowie, Connie

Raitt, Lisa

Remigio, Judi

Rodrigues, Tony

Hon. Lisa Raitt

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • burlington (3/223 Polls)
  • halton (120/212 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 29 F Pritchard
    Notice how Perry D doesn't have anything positive to say about Lisa and acknowledges she has made lots of mistakes. they are afraid of her record. If partisan Perry D actually attended some local debates, he would not be so confident about a con win here.
    11 04 27 Sam Izdat
    Perry D, low blow. Your repeated ‘Masqood’ references remind me of the Americans you delight in emphasizing ‘Hussein’ in Barrack HUSSEIN Obama. (birth certificates anyone?) You exemplify the very low level to which political discourse has declined under Mr. Harper. Give him his majority and we will become just another red state. If Oakvillians see the writing on the wall and vote strategically an upset may still be possible.
    11 04 26 Perry D
    Despite the partisan Liberals trying to re-hash everything that went wrong with Lisa Raitt's tenure in the first year, shes striking a chord with Halton voters. Shes talking about their issues and not spouting off lines from the central campaign.
    Connie can only bring up Iggy's talking points and brings nothing to the table. She ran unsuccessfully in Oakville and will do so again in Halton. The NDP candidate is more maternal than MP material and the Green candidate ‘pled the 5th’ when asked about seniors issues (she didnt want to reply because it was too serious of an issue - Watch www.miltontodaytv.com for the debates and youll see. The CHP candidate is a nut.
    Saying that its a two way race and with the Liberal leaders plunge in the polls and the lack of any substance from Connie, Lisa Raitt should be returned to Ottawa.
    11 04 16 initial
    A massive number of new homes have been built since the previous election. The vast majority of these a cheap(er) houses for new families and 1st generation Canadians. This combined with Raitt's isotype issues may tip the scales for the Liberals. If not this election, certainly soon.
    11 04 16 M. Lunn
    As an outerlying suburb, the Liberals would need a solid lead in Ontario to realistically take this. Lisa Raitt has had her share of mistakes, but nothing strong enough to cause her to lose. In fact it is unusual for the PCs provincially or Tories federally to lose here when there is a united right. They only lost in 2004 since many feared Harper had a hidden agenda and although many Canadians still do, I suspect those were ones who voted for other parties. The NDP and Greens are so weak here that even if they coalesce around the Liberals, it would only make this closer, not cause the riding to change hands.
    11 04 13 F. Pritchard
    Not so fast with marking this a Conservative seat. I was at the local candidates debate last week and the crowd gave the Conservative candidate a rough ride. She received loud boo's several times in response to her non-answers to questions from the crowd during the 1 1/2 event. The Liberal Candidate received a warm response to many of her answers. I think the Liberals will take this riding back.
    11 04 06 Tony Ducey
    Raitt's comments on the isotope scandal none-withstanding, she's been a good minister and should hold on here.
    11 04 02 M. Lunn
    If after the debates, the Liberals don't make major gains, I will call this for the Tories. As an outerlying suburb of the GTA, this generally favours the Tories and only goes Liberal win they win nationally which looks highly unlikely at this point. You have Burlington which is the most conservative part, Milton which leans Conservative but not quite to the same extent and Oakville which is the most competitive in fact the Liberals usually do better in the Oakville portion of this riding than in Oakville. At this point a 90% chance the Tories hold this. Either way, the NDP and Greens are a non-issue as the Tories need at least 42% if not 43% to win this unlike elsewhere where 40% is more than sufficient so vote splitting is really a non-issue here.
    11 02 01 Gladstone
    I think the isotope scandal has blown over by now, so this riding has settled into a comfortable position as one of the likely bellweathers in this campaign. The Tories will throw everything they have at the seat, so as long as Harper hangs on to 24 Sussex, Raitt will stay in Ottawa, but if Iggy claws his way to a minority then Halton will be as likely as any seat to push him over the edge.
    11 01 25 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    With the withdrawal of Deborah Gills from the race, we can not see how the Liberals can win this riding at this time. If there is a spring election, it's likely that that the riding association will be scrambling to get a candidate out there and that often bodes badly for the party. This one was going to be hard for the Liberals to retake when they had a candidate...it just got much, much harder.
    09 10 17 A.S.
    One wonders how things might have transpired in '08 had Garth Turner remained a Tory, or at least had he sat out the election and not allied himself with any party--maybe not a Dufferin-Caledon style blowout, but a 2:1 margin wouldn't have been out of the question. Theoretically, and according to past (and current provincial cf. Ted Chudleigh's '07 squeaker) patterns, this should be increasingly within the Liberal-friendly inner-GTA orbit...well, Liberal-friendly in the Chretien-Martin-McGuinty sense. And in such an event, Lisa ?Tabitha Vixx? Raitt's sexy-isotope flubs'd make for sexy targeting. But all in all, the bigger contentiousness about Raitt remains her Toronto Port Authority past; and in that light, given her representation, she's the perfect ?flight from 416? Tory, whose constituents don't give a hoot about what the David-Millerite T-Dot chattering class thinks. She might as well be as safe as the equally flub-prone Gordon O'Connor at this point; and all the more so in the future in case redistribution carves out Oakville North/Milton South bulwarks for the Grits to frolic in...
    09 09 28 PY
    MF, you don't know that for sure with regards to how Lisa Raitt is actually perceived by the constituents of Halton. There's a definite Liberal/Conservative split in this riding, as demonstrated by the dancing votes for Gary Carr (provincial PC to federal Liberal) and Garth Turner (federal PC to present-day Conservative, as it were, to Liberal). If I remember right, Turner once said that the key to the riding is that part of Oakville that happens to be in it, so if enough of them go a certain way, then the seat can be had.
    The isotope outburst could cast doubts in the minds of some as to whether Raitt is actually capable of conducting herself appropriately as a Minister of the Crown...but as I mentioned above, it might just depend on the Oakville-based constituents to decide whether she's really up to the task or out of her depth.
    09 09 13 MF
    I'm going to predict that Halton will stay Conservative. It is a well-off exurban riding and voted Tory in '06 (even if Garth Turner later defected to the Liberals), and then went Tory by a huge margin last year. Lisa Raitt may have her detractors but ?isotope-gate? is ancient history and most of the people who really dislike her live in downtown Toronto.
    09 09 07 Derek Cullan
    I think Lisa will win this seat again. Considering her high profile, she remains a good local rep and is active in Halton. Although she wasn't at our daughters graduation, she provided us with a congratulatory certificate- a very nice touch.
    09 08 25 R.O.
    This is no doubt a growing riding but still at its roots is the halton area , a region which has historically been good for the conservatives at the federal and provincial levels which partly explains why its 2 past liberal mp's actually had progressive conservative roots. Lisa Raitt is also a well liked mp and other than the isotope issue had a successful first year in Ottawa . The liberals i think without Garth Turner or Gary Carr aren't as well position as before. Now they do have a new candidate Deborah Gillis who was appointed by Ignatieff and who is suppose to be high profile but i've followed federal politics closely for the last decade and never heard of her or has she run before anywhere to my knowledge.
    09 08 25 wyatt
    Raitt will hold this seat. She did very well in '08, winning by more than 7,800. She'll definitely have a fight on her hands with the isotope issue, but the longer the delay before the next election, the less of an issue it will be. The electorate has a very, very short memory.
    09 08 22 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    A while back we were commenting on how Lisa Raitt, along with Leona Agliukkaq, brought some much needed class, charm and decorum to the front benches of the Conservative party (and to the House of Commons as a whole)...and then less than a week later the sexy isotope thing happened. Regardless, this incident will not be Lisa Raitt's downfall as it is already largely forgotten and she still comes off as classy and dignified. If anything, her downfall will be from a strong Liberal candidate in this politically split riding. There was no great Liberal voter sit out here in 2008 (actually more votes were cast than in 2006...however this riding is growing rapidly). We're calling TCTC for now but we think Lisa has the edge.

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