Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Winnipeg South Centre

Prediction Changed
2010-02-09 09:53:00

Constituency Profile


Bateman, Joyce

Froese, Lyndon B.

Henderson, Matt

Lewycky, Dennis

McNeil, Joshua

Neville, Anita

Hon. Anita Neville

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • winnipeg-south (28/165 Polls)
  • winnipeg-south-centre (148/176 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 05 01 NoKoolAid
    There are simply too many factors working against the Liberals in this seat. Their national collapse, NDP surge, Bateman's popularity and the move to stop a coalition. Conservative steal here.
    11 04 30 Michael Fox
    This one will be a shocker, but I'm predicting Conservative. The last election looked this way:
    Conservative - 36.3
    Liberal - 42.3
    NDP - 14.1
    Green - 7.4
    Looking at the polls in the prairies, a simple vote-shift model predicts an 8 point Conservative win here. Adjusting for the local campaign, I'm predicting:
    Conservative - 40
    Liberal - 38-39
    NDP - 19
    Green - 2
    A few weeks ago I had this as a Liberal lock. Now it looks like Ralph Goodale could be the only Liberal MP between Northern Ontario and Vancouver.
    11 04 28 All Over the Map
    I'm actually not sure about this one. The latest Nanos poll has the Liberals way down from their '08 results on the Prairies. Granted, the regional polling has been all over the map on the Prairies (Quebec and to a lesser extent Ontario are the only places where clear trends emerge), and the Conservatives are also losing to the NDP, but that just leads me to believe me need to look at the specifics of the riding more closely.

    Virtually everyone - the vast majority of Liberals included - wish Neville had stepped aside to allow a new Liberal star to come in while Bateman presents a moderate Conservative new breath of fresh air, at least by comparison.

    But the real kicker in my opinion is that Harper has been very good at picking up one Manitoba riding each election - Harvard's in '04, Alcock's in '06, and Simard's in '08. The Conservatives will be pouring their Winnipeg resources into this riding, and to a lesser extent St. Boniface, not being able to care much about Bruinooge. (Smith and Fletcher are very safe and they have no shot at the others.) Granted, the Liberals will be doing the same, but they also have Winnipeg North, in addition to Winnipeg South and Saint Boniface, that they are targeting.

    So long story short, I expect the margin of victory to decrease, for Neville, if she triumphs at all - and I wouldn't be in the slightest surprised to see Bateman eek this out.
    11 04 27 rsg
    I agree with the sentiments and rationale of Bear&Ape. the Liberal vote is holding and actually marginally increasing on the prairies in some polls. the NDP numbers are coming at the expense of the Conservatives. This i'll call as a hold, and a pick-up in neighboring Winnipeg South.
    11 04 27 WpgReader
    I heard that Anita Neville got the endorsement of the Canadian Auto Workers, which is typically reserved for NDPers. People in Winnipeg South Centre don't want a Conservative traitor and they know voting NDP will help the Conservative.
    11 04 26 NoKoolAid
    Consider the riding more carefully. The heart of liberal vote is River Heights. The Jewish vote in this area matters and is leaning conservative due to a pro-Isreal Conservative government. Joyce Bateman is best known in River Heights and well liked. Not for what she did 15 years ago - like Neville, but for her work in Winnipeg SD1 now !! That leaves a lot of Anita lovers out there but it takes a lot of votes from Neville. Her victory margin slips every election and was only 2330 last time. CPC Taking 1166 direct votes from Anita last time would have done it. The stage is set for Joyce to succeed Anita and bring this seat back on the stage in Ottawa under a conservative majority
    11 04 25 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    NDP surge eating Liberal vote...except polls show the NDP eating CPC support in the praries while Liberal support is holding and is above what they got election day '08.
    11 04 26 RedTory
    Joyce's peek-a-boo campaign and opportunism isn't fooling anybody and certainly NOT LPC voters. Two things heard at the door are: ‘We like Anita.’ and, ‘We don't like Stephen Harper.’ Concerning the NDP, the surge does not apply to the prairies. In 2008 the NDP bled to the Greens and the LPC vote remained static, meaning, no bump to Anita from the NDP. Moreover, in 08 the NDP grabbed 25% of the MB vote which was the same as 06.
    The question is, how many CPC and LPC voters are soft New Dems who will be emboldened by outrageous QC seat projections to vote against a trusted progressive Member of Parliament? Answer: none. Every vote is strategic and New Democrats know that throwing a vote away from the LPC in the chance that the NDP may sneak up the middle is too great of a risk to let in a CPC stooge like Joyce. They won't take the risk.
    11 04 22 NoKoolAid
    This whole site needs an update. Predictions are way off now !! In this riding, the NDP surge will eat Neville from the left and Joyce Bateman's popularity will result in Anita's defeat. Looking forward to having this riding back in the hands of the governing party.
    11 04 21 victor lazlo
    I know that lawn signs (NOT Blvd signs) dont tell the whole story .....but they can be an indication of the way the wind is blowing.
    I live in the River Heights (in the heart of the riding) and there are Joyce Bateman poping up all over the place (including some of my neighbors that used to have Neville signs in elections past).
    Another (unscientific) indicator. Neville had a small/pathetic sign demonstration this moring at Academy and Wellington. I sat through 3 lights waiting to turn left and didnt hear 1 person honk and didnt see any ‘thmbs up’ ......but I did see some middle fingers !
    11 04 15 NoKoolAid
    Free Press endorsed Conservative Joyce Bateman last week. She is well known for accomplishments in the school division, and brings a lot to the table. Lloyd's handoff to Anita of a safe riding has finally expired. Anita will not be re-elected.
    11 04 11 Flatland Man
    Another political heavyweight I forgot to add is Dr. Jon Gerrard, leader of the Manitoba Liberal Party. He is currently the only Liberal MLA in Manitoba and his riding is here in River Heights. Just another reason why it will take so much more then the CPC has in Winnipeg (which is quite a lot right now) to take this riding. Considering the polls have the CPC at a ceiling in Manitoba and across Canada it just goes beyond belief that the CPC will take this LPC stronghold.
    11 04 09 MF
    I'm not sure exactly why ‘Globe and Mail’ invokes Ibbitson's Mount Royal article for the race in River Heights, though presumably it's a point about the Jewish vote. While this is the ‘Jewish riding’ in Winnipeg the riding is only 10% Jewish. And most of the Jewish population is like the Jewish population is in St. Paul's or Westmount - small-’l’ liberal politically and not inclined to cast their vote based on the Israel issue. And the riding is Winnipeg's equivalent to Vancouver Quadra, St. Paul's and Westmount - chock full of highly urban professional types who can't stand the Conservatives.
    11 04 05 Flatland Man
    Again I have to reiterate it would take an outstanding campaign for the Conservatives to win here, even with a disgruntled Liberal running as the CPC candidate. This is a Liberal stronghold, home of the Axworthy family, Tom and son Lloyd as well as Bob. These men helped to frame the national Liberal Party and Canadian identity through Liberal majority governments over the past decades since the 60s, as well as the Manitoba Liberal Party through Bob Axworthy. There is too much political clout, Liberal donor money, and an established network of Liberal volunteers for this riding to go down. Once more if this riding turns blue that is an absolute ominous sign for the Liberal Party of Canada, a doomsday scenario of sorts for they.
    11 04 03 M.Lunn
    Once a Liberal stronghold, but each election the Tories have cut into the Liberal lead here. The NDP has no chance of winning this, but tend to well in the Eastern parts of the riding so if much of that vote swings over to the Liberals to vote strategically they should hold this while if it stays with the NDP the Tories could win. Also the Tory candidate is an ex-Liberal so will be interesting to see whether that works in her favour or against her. At this point a very slight edge to the Liberals.
    11 04 01 Matt
    Anita Neville is running a solid campaign already and Bateman has still not gotten out of the gate. Easy Liberal win.
    11 04 01 Flatland Man
    Not sure why some newspapers have picked this as a race to watch. If the Liberals lose this riding to the Conservatives then all hope is lost for them in western Canada. It will take quite the race to defeat the Libs especially considering that its taken so long to find a viable candidate. The Conservative Electoral District Association here is divided and has been unable to find a candidate they fully endorse. This might be one of Neville's last elections but she is still a virtual lock to win, no matter her age.
    11 04 01 Old Flin Flon
    If the Free Press is right and Bateman is announced as the Tory candidate today, all bets are off for Winnipeg South Centre. She is as close to a star candidate as the Tories could hope for and ought to be able to unite the Tories behind her (which Hall or other potential nominees from the Conservative association couldn't do). She will also pick off chunks of Liberal and old PC voters that would have been uncomfortable with a more mainstream Tory. For now I would still give the nod to Neville (she is resilient if nothing else) but this should be immediately moved to TCTC if the Free Press is right bout Bateman.
    11 03 30
    Still no Tory candidate yet.
    11 03 29 Sylia
    Conservative candidate was announced for the riding today - Joyce Bateman. She is currently a School Trustee (like Anita was) and was widely thought to have been Anita's hand picked successor when she finally retired. Anita hasn't retired yet and Joyce is tired of waiting. She will give Anita a good run, could very easily be picking up support in unexpected quarters, and may split the Liberal vote.
    11 03 29 Marco Ricci
    This is a riding I thought would be close again, but it may be an easier campaign for Anita Neville in 2011 than it was in 2008. After the sudden departure of the previous Conservative candidate, the Cons still do not have a replacement according to the Winnipeg Free Press.
    And now Shelley Glover's controversial remarks about Anita Neville could be another problem for the Cons. CARP has spoken out against Shelly Glover because they think her marks sound like age discrimination:
    11 03 28 Jim
    The Conservatives ruined any shot of winning this seat when Hall resigned or was fired. Liberal hold, no question.
    11 03 14 Marco Ricci
    The Conservative candidate, Raymond Hall, has suddenly resigned, and said he would not explain why.
    It's kind of surprising that the Conservative candidate would quit out of the blue, since this is a riding the Conservatives wanted to target. I guess this gives the advantage to Liberal Anita Neville.
    11 03 11 Globe and Mail
    Interesting insights:
    Why Tories think they can take Mount Royal
    10 01 29 kid from the prairies
    The prorogation uproar should put this riding safely back into Neville's hands. She has been an effective MP, and repeated Conservative attempts to unseat her have failed.
    She might have been vulnerable this time, but Hart Mallin, an otherwise credible potential Conservative candidate, made an unfortunate error by writing a disingenuous letter to the editor of the Free Press in support of prorogation. The Conservatives must now either find a new candidate or have Mallin try to explain to voters why he supported this issue.
    The Conservatives would have to have everything going their way for this riding to swing into their column, and so far the opposite is true.
    10 01 18 binriso
    Actually considering the fact that the Conservatives were at 49% last time and the Liberals 19% and the seat was held by 6% those poll numbers would actually give a LARGER Liberal victory compared to last time. Simple math dictates another win and Id have to think the Liberals would fight hard to keep their single Manitoba riding, since they likely have a chance in only this riding and St Boniface.
    09 12 14 Stevo
    Let me reiterate the necessity of changing this riding to Too Close Too Call. The latest poll in Manitoba shows the federal Conservatives at 50% province-wide - the highest percentage the CPC has ever managed in any poll in Manitoba. The Liberals were down at 21%. If these numbers hold up, it's bye-bye Anita!
    09 10 19 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    The calls from other posters that this should be listed as TCTC is not at all unreasonable. Anita Neville did not win this riding by a large margin, the Torys are improving across the board (for the moment) and with other TCTC ridings being more secure for the CPC, they will spend more time/money on this riding. As well, since an election is probably in the spring at the very earliest, this riding (and many others now called for both the Liberals and the Torys) should be recast as TCTC...much can change in that time and most of the recent prediction changes have been based on an imminent election (which is no longer the case). So we're supporting a TCTC prediction...so why have we called it for the Liberals? Well in the 2008 election, Neville did what few other Liberals did...they held their own. She got 16,296 votes in '06 but garnered slightly more than that in '08: 16,438...even with fewer voters turnign out. It would suggest that Neville enjoys a high degree of personal popularity that transends national Liberal support. We think Neville will keep her eat but it's not a shoe-in. She'll have to fight tooth and nail against a focused Tory machine. We may change our prediction when an election is actually called but for now we think Aninta will keep it.
    09 10 08
    Absolutely too-close-to-call. To those who like to point out the ?Dion debacle?, I can't say Michael Ignatieff is doing much better. With a national approval rating of 19% and disapproval rating of 51%, Liberal infighting, and a slide in the polls, this is definitely TCTC. The biggest Liberal advantage in this riding is long-time MP Anita Neville herself; however, even she may not be able to withstand another election if the general polling trends hold for the Conservatives (Harper's approval ratings improving, Conservatives reaching 40+% majority territory in the polls).
    09 09 25 firstpastthepost
    Agreed that with Wpg-South and St. Boniface becoming relatively secure holds, it would be a logical move for the Winnipeg Conservative campaign machine to focus their efforts in a more organized way on this riding. Success for Neville depends upon her ability to garner continued support regardless of how the Liberal federal party brand is selling at the time of the election, and a strong campaign team. Success for the Conservatives in this riding depends upon lowered support levels for the federal Liberal brand, the ability of the Conservative nominee to cultivate / identify support in the riding, and whether or not a stronger local Conservative campaign team will be organized. That said, all these factors are in play, and this riding could be classed as ?too close to call?.
    09 09 15 Greg P
    If Winnipeg South is TCTC, so is this one. The Conservatives focused their effort on St. Boniface and Elmwood-Transcona, and sort of left South-Centre to do it's own thing. This might have worked, except for the fact that the candidate was a drop-in, who had not built his own base.
    Things are different this time around, the CPC likely won't focus as many resources in Elmwood-Transcona (although they might think that they have a chance if the election is in the Fall, as the NDP are preoccupied provincially with a leadership race). The candidate fought in a contested nomination, and brings people who want him to win personally, above and beyond the local partisans. I think this is a riding that, if the national results stayed the same as 2008, would be a squeaker either way.
    09 09 10 MF
    If the Tories couldn't take WSC in the Dion debacle, I don't they're likely to take it now. It is kind of like Winnipeg's version of St. Paul's or Quadra. And interestingly enough this is where there is concentrated support for the provincial Liberals.
    09 09 03 Stevo
    Way too early to call this for the Liberals. If Winnipeg South can be considered TCTC, then so can Winnipeg South-Centre.
    Anita Neville's margin wasn't impressive, and the whole argument that the Conservatives can't compete in urban areas was thrown out the window last time by their performance in seats like Eglinton-Lawrence, Burnaby-Douglas, and Vancouver-South (30 votes away from snatching the latter). With Charleswood and Kildonan now completely safe, and Winnipeg-South and Saint Boniface sufficiently out of danger (barring a dramatic change in the polls), Conservative resources in Manitoba can really zero in on this riding.
    09 08 27 NorthernRaven
    Now the only Liberal seat in Manitoba, Neville has held her seat at 16,000 votes. But the Conservatives have closed the margin to 2300 votes. With a Majority push, the Winnipeg Conservatives will be fighting hard to take this riding. And with the apathetic voters whom awoke during the Coalition Threat, non-Conseravtive incumbants west of Thunder Bay should be careful.

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