Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-08-28 16:58:00

Constituency Profile


Finley, Sandra

Hill, Darren

Kouri, Denise

Pankiw, Jim

Trost, Brad

Brad Trost

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • saskatoon-humboldt (165/180 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 05 01 Marco Ricci
    Riding looks like it will remain Conservative. Project Democracy poll:
    CON: 50.0
    NDP: 30.6
    LIB: 12.9
    11 04 29 Ron F
    The posts below have the analyses generally right except for the following factors.The demographics of the riding has changed the Saskatoon part of the riding is now about 60%. Trost had not revealed how bad he was on social issues and this will motivate the urban youth vote. With the Pankiw factor still in play this is not a conservative hold Denise will take this riding.
    11 04 29 Bernard von Schulmann
    A poll is out and it has a huge lead for the Conservatives
    Brad Trost Conservative - 50.0%
    Denise Kouri NDP - 30.6%
    Darren Hill Liberal - 12.9%
    Sandra Findley Green - 6.5%
    Jim Pankiw is missing from the poll, no idea why. He should be worth 10-15% at the polls.
    400 respondents +-4.85% at the 95% level
    11 04 24 binriso
    Well Pankiw got 20% of the vote here in 2004, though he likely doesnt get that much this time around. This still may be a bit weak for the CPC though, they were at 54% in Saskatchewan last election and 58% in the Prairies, most polling puts them around 50%, which includes Alberta's likley 60% of the vote or more. In addition, the Greens and Liberals are likely going to lose votes here. The Liberals, who almost won here in 2004 were down to 12% last time and have been consistently losing support which put the NDP solidly in 2nd place. I expect them to be around 10% this time and possibly even lower. The Greens are going to suffer due to the lack of a national campaign and will likely be around 4%. Say if the NDP can gain a few points to get to 35-37% then that leaves about 50% for the two conservatives. Pankiw taking 15% of that vote means the NDP squeak by. Though its likely still a Conservative win.
    11 04 23 Teddy Boragina
    The NDP has been on a charge in the Prairies (one that has been overshadowed by similar charges they are having in BC, and Quebec) and all of a sudden this riding starts to come in to play... depending of course on how many people vote Pankiw.
    11 04 22 RWDT
    Will be interesting to watch, given how Brad just toasted the national campaign and may have singly handily lost the conservative majority - with jim paniw splitting the nut-job vote and Brad having no hope of ever making cabinet, I think this has to be a tossup now.
    11 04 21
    The Conservative candidate has hurt the national campaign and revealed he is an extremist who wants to stop funding for planned parenthood..
    11 04 20 Teddy Boragina
    Pankiw will likely end up splitting the vote with the other parties. Something along the lines of 40% for the CPC and 15% each for the Liberals, NDP, Greens, and Pankiw, with Pankiw being above the mark and the Greens below.
    11 04 09 C.A.B.
    Pankiw may be running here again, but he still came in fourth in 2004, and that was as an incumbent. And, of course, it wasn't enough to stop Trost from winning anyway, though with an anemic 26.7% of the vote. And, sure enough, in 2006, Trost then absorbed virtually all of Pankiw's vote, and he went on to win an absolute majority in 2008, 26 points ahead of the NDP. Pankiw is something of a yesterday's man now, seven years out of office. I think he'll struggle to match the 14% he got in Battlefords-Lloydminster in 2006, so the best-case scenario for him is a poor third. Trost, meanwhile, will hold this seat comfortably for the Tories, though I do expect both his share and his margin to decline from last time.
    11 03 30 Edmund O'Connor
    I'd be fascinated to know exactly how M. Lunn knows that Pankiw is no longer running, given that his website, Twitter feed and Facebook (not to mention Pundits' Guide) still have him running as an independent. There's no sign of it on the wider web.
    Until I hear from credible sources that Pankiw is not running, he represents a threat to Trost's vote. If Pankiw fights Trost hard in the rural areas around Humboldt (even a vote in the mid-single figures would be dangerous, never mind more), then Trost's re-election is far from assured.
    With the Liberal vote circling the drain, a well-organized Kouri campaign could swipe it from the Tories. It would be helped by Pankiw staying in the race, with his own brand of crazy.
    11 03 29 M. Lunn
    In 2004, both the right and left were split evenly with the Liberals and NDP on the left and the Conservatives and Jim Pankiw on the right. Since then, the Tories have gone up in Saskatchewan, while the Liberals and NDP down and Jim Pankiw is not running as an independent thus easy Tory win. The question is will they win a plurality or outright majority. It will be close either way, but the Tories will be well ahead of their opponents.
    10 04 04 R.O.
    This riding has become the odd target in Saskatchewan for seemingly all the opposition parties and and a former reform/independent mp. but previous conservative numbers in the riding would indicate they have an advantage here over all these other candidates . Although a run by independent candidate Jim Pankiw is more likely to take votes away from the cpc here i don't see him doing as well here now that he hasn't been mp for a few years. also keep in mind that Brad Trost has held the riding for over 5 years now and has an incumbent advantage . the opposition parties are also targeting the seat as ndp have allready nominated a candidate here and liberals have Darren Hill a saskatoon city councillor interested in running for them. but it honestly seems like an odd target and even if they make gains they could still be a long way back in such a riding.
    10 03 03 beenkissinwho
    With former Reform MP Jim Pankiw in the race again, the right-wing vote could be split, leading to an NDP gain. On the other hand, Mr. Trost was able to hold on to the seat last time Pankiw ran, so this one I think is TCTC
    09 08 27 wyatt
    Trost has grown his vote every year since '04. Now with a 8,900 vote lead and 53% of the vote, he'll retain the seat without trouble.
    09 08 27 Observer
    It is clear the Conservatives have the advantage in this riding. But I would not say it is for sure that they will win. This is a urban riding and then more likely to swing to the NDP. Don't forget last time the provincial NDP-led government was very unpopular. Now we have a conservative party provincial government and that helps the oppositional NDP. My prediction: Wait and see.
    09 08 27 JJ
    Brad Trost should have little trouble getting re-elected here. With the Conservatives remaining dominant and the prairies, and with Trost's landslide victory here in 2008, the riding will stay with the CPC.

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