Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Edmonton East

Prediction Changed
2009-08-25 16:09:00

Constituency Profile


Capnerhurst, Trey

Goldring, Peter

Martin, Ray

Ruda, Shafik

Peter Goldring

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • edmonton-centre-east (165/239 Polls)
  • edmonton-north (70/191 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 29 Non Partisan Observer
    I believe that this is Mr. Martin's second kick at the can in this riding. I think the hard work door-knocking between elections will pay off for him, just like it did for Linda Duncan in Strathcona in 2008. It also helps that Martin has name recognition and is running against an invisable conservative. This along with Centre and Strathcona will be fun to watch. I'm going to predict that the NDP wins this one by less than 300 votes.
    11 04 29 Shawn OF
    I line in the NE zone and one thing I can say is that the NDP volunteers have been to my house twice.....The Con's....I got a flier! I think Goldring forgot the basics of meeting the people that you need support from.
    My vote and both my neighbours are NDP, it will be interesting to see what happens on Monday.
    11 04 27 Anni C.
    Jim Lightbody, University of Alberta political science professor, has been predicting that if the NDP numbers can hold up in the province, Edmonton-East and Edmonton-Centre could go orange. This was before the latest two polls confirmed the NDP support at 28-30% nationwide.
    For these reasons, I predict NDP take this riding but at the very least it is too close to call now.
    11 04 27 binriso
    This is part wishful thinking but the NDP have closed the gap significantly in Alberta polling from a 52-53 (!!) point deficit last time to close to 40 points this time. With a further consolidation of Liberal and Green votes like they have been doing in Strathcona this may bring them to around 45% in this riding, and that will be enough to win.
    11 04 26 pitcher
    Game on Ray Martin has the personal support and the respect that will help him close this one. I think it will be a shock at how close it isn't. Long conversation with friends in the riding and the ND have been pulling the vote to advance polls and if there is a Con campaign no one knows where or what it is.
    11 04 25 R.O.
    Outside of Quebec the talk of an ndp surge really doesn't make much sense , i don't really know why the media keeps talking about this cause nothing unsual about ndp numbers other than Quebec . this will likely be ndp's second best performance in Alberta but they'd need to gain alot based on 08 numbers to have any chance. whats also interesting in that number of polls won by ndp in 08 is almost identical to number won by liberals in 04. 52 polls went ndp in 08 and 42 went liberal in 04 , my guess is they were alot of the same polls . what we may be seeing here is shifting among anti conservative voters but not an actual shift of the riding. Ray Martin is a highly qualified and experienced ndp candidate but this is Alberta its likely to stay conservative.
    11 04 24 WAC
    Given the NDP surge in the polls, I'm going to change my earlier prediction to ‘Too Close To Call’ - still leaning Conservative though.
    11 04 23 Teddy Boragina
    The NDP has been picking up steam in the polls in Alberta. They now have the math to win a second seat (this one)
    11 04 23 rp
    Going out on a limb here with an NDP prediction, when I was the riding this week, NDP lawnsigns vastly outnumbered any others. Perhaps Jack's coat tails will pull them along and make the orange blob grow in size.
    11 04 22 Fred H.
    At the beginning of the campaign, I would have called this for the Tories. But I'm starting to think something is going on here. I'm seeing a lot more Ray Martin signs, I've gotten several pieces of NDP literature in the mail, and I've had two phone calls from his campaign.
    And god knows the Tory is nothing special. No one ever sees him between elections, and everyone knows it.
    I'm not saying the NDP will win here, but if I was running this site, I'd call it too close to call right now.
    11 04 22 Kristjan
    I don't think much of Goldring. 14 years loyal to his party, and still a third-rate backbencher who i've never even seen come to the door in any election, never seen make a big speech during House debates, never seen work on a committee. He sends me mailings a billion times a year about how the Conservatives are the greatest thing since sliced bread and mom's home cooking. Well, frankly his party isn't any more or less perfect than hte previous guys. Predicting Tory, likely voting NDP. My inclinations are center-right fiscally, but i'd prefer Ray Martin as my MP over Peter Goldring, simply put.
    11 04 19 MF
    Ray Martin had a strong showing for the NDP here in 2008 but Peter Goldring still won by a wide margin. Still, this would the next pickup for the NDP in Alberta if they make gains, and if the Angus Reid poll that shows them at 22% is correct, they could pick this up. Still leaning Tory though.
    11 04 18 Agula
    Even though Peter Goldring is a good man and a solid candidate, his party has had too many scandals that has adversely affected the demographic in this riding. The Demographic of edmonton east are primarily either seniors or lower income. The income trust fiasco really hurt a lot of seniors financially.
    Another thing to consider is that the margin between the conservatives and the ndp has been getting smaller with each passing election.
    11 04 16 M. Lunn
    The NDP does have some strength and Ray Martin will certainly pick up many Liberal and Green votes, but if he couldn't even come within 10% last time around, I cannot see this changing hands. Things may tighten a bit, but not enough to cause this seat to flip. The real NDP-Tory battle is in Edmonton-Strathcona not here.
    11 04 13 Tony Ducey
    Ray Martin is a good candidate but this is Alberta, the CPC hold onto this seat.
    11 04 03 M. Lunn
    Ray Martin is running in this riding and will no doubt help the NDP, still the Tories did get 50% last time around and considering how solid their vote is any gains by the NDP will probably come from the Liberals. As long as the Tories don't slide too much in Alberta they should hold this.
    11 03 27 John
    Jack Layton was in Edmonton yesterday to drum up support for the NDP, and I understand Edmonton East is a riding they are specifically targeting.
    Ray Martin is also a well known NDP candidate, which will help pull votes.
    So this riding could go NDP. It could also stay Conservative.
    The only thing I will say is it probably won't go Liberal, and it certainly won't go Green.
    11 03 26 WAC
    Ray Martin vs. Peter Goldring Round 3. Given the polls and past results, especially in 2008, I'm not sure why this time would be any different. Expect some more of the ABC vote to coalesce around Martin, but Goldring should still win comfortably.
    11 03 20 binriso
    A little more research on this riding shows the NDP only spent about 1/3 of their possible election spending here, certainly the ability to spend to the limit, which i assume they will do this time will help a bit. In addition, an Edmonton-Strathcona situation is developing here where there is a clear 2nd place party (the NDP with triple the votes of the Liberals) instead of a more contested second place like in 2006 (or 2004 in the case of Strathcona). This likely tips over a couple more % from the Liberals and maybe Greens as well to the NDP. It seems like it is a clear battle between Goldring and Martin, which benefits Martin who will get some strategic anti CPC votes. Goldring lost 3600 votes last time while Martin gained 4100 and the Liberals lost almost 9000, with the Greens about the same numberwise clearly showing a huge decline in voter turnout (well below 50% in this riding) considering Goldring actually polled at a higher percentage than 2006. It looks like the lower turnout hurts the CPC numbers-wise, but that is very hard to tell how badly. Even with half the Liberal vote and a few Green votes, the NDP are still ~5000 votes short here, which means theyll need a bad turnout on the CPC side or a lot of new voters to turn out for the NDP (or take some CPC votes).
    All things considered the NDP realistically only have a chance to win in three Alberta ridings this time around, all in Edmonton. Edmonton Center is an incredible longshot and they should keep Edmonton Strathcona. They do have a chance here I think, after all they dont have much to lose and resources in Alberta will likely be concentrated in Edmonton East and Strathcona, if they are smart. Even if the CPC candidate is a long time MP, the chances of knocking him out have never been any better than this.
    09 09 03 Stevo
    I agree with binriso, for the reason that the threat to the CPC in Edmonton-East is from the NDP candidate, not the Liberal candidate as in Edmonton-Centre - and judging by the riding-by-riding Alberta results in last year's election, the non-Conservative vote is coalescing around the NDP more often than the Liberals. Remains to be seen if Iggy's leadership will change that. Edmonton-East will still go Conservative, but the NDP will continue to make inroads and may take this one in the post-Harper era (whenever that will occur).
    09 09 01 binriso
    This seat has a better chance of being TCTC than Edmonton Centre, although its almost certain to be CPC.
    09 08 24 Observer
    NDP achieved a very good result with former provincial Alberta NDP leader, Ray Martin. He is running again but it will be very difficult defeating a Conservative and elect a left-wing candidate. Albertans just don't like socialists.

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