Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Western Arctic

Prediction Changed
2009-08-23 21:33:00

Constituency Profile


Bevington, Dennis

Dawson, Bonnie

Handley, Joe

Lee, Sandy

Purchase, Eli

Dennis Bevington

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction


  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 28 binriso
    Thinking that all the Arctic seats will stay the same, though this one will be razor thin.
    11 04 26
    The vote in the NWT will reign as the ‘grey vote’ The municipal vote on the Geothermal project was led by the grey vote. Deh Cho Bridge is over budget and in the end will cost us all. Although it was not part of the Geothermal vote the grey vote was not happy about it and Joe Handley was the lead. Sandy Lee tried to change how Health Care was paid and the ‘grey vote’ fought hard against her. Grey people DO NOT FORGIVE AND FORGET. Dennis Bevington, NDP will win because the ‘grey vote’ will not vote for either Joe or Sandy and those who do, will split the vote and Dennis will win anyway. We need people like Mr. Bevington, who represent the North and not their own interests like Joe Handley or what they are told to do like Sandy Lee. I no longer vote for my country I vote for the region that I live in, as they have to look the residents in the eye everyday.
    11 04 20 R.O.
    The NWT's seat remains an interesting race , it must be fairly close or why else would both main parties leaders visit the riding in same week. although it seems odd layton hasn't visited riding yet himself . its a difficult one to predict as it has few voters to begin with and alot of them don't even bother to vote. Dennis Bevington appears to have some appeal in the riding but conservatives and liberals have also had good results in past elections in riding. the conservatives came very close to winning here in 08 when Brendan Bell candidate and new candidate Sandy lee may have a bit more profile politically in the territory. Liberal Joe Handley has never ran before federally but also was involved in territorial politics here and has some profile.
    11 04 16 True North
    Sandy Lee is touching all the bases here. In two weeks she has visited almost every community in the territory and she has a lot of friends from her time spent as an MLA. She has the support of leadership in every north coast community.
    The Liberals are gaining support with some aboriginal groups by promising to ditch the devolution agreement. Candidate Joe Handley is trying to buy back support and is whispering promises of the pie in the sky Kelowna Accord.
    NDP incumbent Dennis Bevington has had his kick at the cat. All he can do is rail on about Harper and watch his support slide. He has nothing to promise, because his party can't deliver. People are finally starting to get wise to that now.
    Handley will take votes from Bevington and Lee will take all the Conservatives had in '08 with many more in the Sahtu, Deh Cho and Beaufort/Delta communities.
    11 04 13 kevinski
    This is a hold. The Conservatives are disorganized and not putting forth a concerted effort in the areas of population they need to. And the high-profile Liberal will split the vote out of Yellowknife; Hay River goes solidly behind Dennis and it is an NDP win.
    11 02 08 Ghost of elections past
    Joe Handley won't win. The last and only time anyone ever cast a ballot for him was in the 1999 NWT general election. In 2003 he was acclaimed to his seat and than acclaimed again when no one else wanted the Premier job.
    Handley only served a single term. Handley's popularity is overstated.
    This is leaning towards Bevington, with an outside chance of Sandy Lee.
    11 04 05 M. Lunn
    An interesting three way race. The NDP hold this, but the Tories came close last time around and considering the unpopularity of the gun registry here, this could help them despite the fact Dennis Bevington did vote in favour of scrapping it. The Liberals have nominated former premier Joe Handley, so a Liberal upset is possible too despite their dismal showing last time around as well as they could play kingmaker depending on whom they steal the most votes from.
    11 04 03 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    It would seem that this is a case of YATNS, Yet Another Tory Nomination Squabble. Only one Candidate filed papers with the local riding assoc in time, but he is not the one nominated - rather the riding assoc decided to pick a former Liberal to run.
    11 04 02 J Keller
    Incumbent hold. Just heard on CBC two newspaper editors, the consensus is absolutely clear: No Conservative breakthrough. No 'coalition' concerns. Incumbents will win.
    11 03 31 Just a Voter
    Sandy Lee has the most baggage out of anyone running here, the whole thing seems like a cruel joke played by the Conservative elite to get her out of cabinet and a position of influence. While in cabinet she abandoned her support for seniors for political expediency, and then seeing no other opportunities, abandoned her party to join with the party that is fighting an election due to being brought down on contempt charges. She'll finish a distant third if she is lucky.
    This race is between Bevington and Handley, and Joe has the edge in that he is more personable and knowledgeable of local issues. Haven't heard anything about unpaid bills in the news...the tory supporter there must be off his meds.
    11 03 28 lil boy blue
    The Liberals have fallen apart in the NWT. Unpaid bills all over the place and no means of raising money. Handley is a surprisingly good candidate, but he carries the baggage of his suggestion that residential school sexual abuse may have been consensual. There is also his Deh Cho Bridge legacy. Bad blood between him and the Akaitcho Chiefs. ‘You have not signed off one word of your land claim! Not one word!’
    The NDP, for no logical reason, will be the team to beat. Although Bevington has done absolutely nothing for the North in his three terms, he has UNW/PSAC support. They arent proud about it, but they do vote and they have a machine. Aboriginals support the NDP out of spite. Bevington has the gun control baggage and he was also caught napping on camera.
    Sandy Lee is a fresh face for the Conservatives. She will work hard to capture the seat. Like many disillusioned Liberals, Lee will bring some votes from centre to the right. It's been raining money in Nunavut since Leona was elected. NWT is starting to take notice. Promise of a $150m road to Tuk will help. The Mackenzie Highway, the pipeline, devolution and land claims were fumbled about for years with the Liberals in power and they didn't do a thing.
    11 03 27 YKer11
    Bevington should be safe here, particularly as he voted against the much maligned gun registry. The Tories were hammering us with flyers in this riding up until their presumed candidate, Brendan Bell, took on an opportunity a few months ago that precluded him from being the Tory candidate. Since then, the Tory machine seems to have fallen into disarray. As yet, the Tories have not even officially announced who their candidate will be. I can't see the Liberal candidate, Joe Handley, attracting much of the vote given his association with the Dehcho Bridge debacle. In any case, the Liberal vote has dropped off drastically each election since 2000. The First Peoples National Party may be the sleeping giant, and could be a potent force within several elections if they get organized and galvanize the aboriginal population; with over 50% of the population in the NWT being aboriginal/metis. They won't be a threat this time though.
    11 03 27 Flatland Man
    With Joe Handley at the helm name recognition almost always wins in the north. Marking this one down for the Liberals.
    10 05 04 ridingbyriding
    If it's true that the former premier is running for the Liberals, this makes this a battleground riding, with the edge to the Tories.
    09 09 22 binriso
    Well former Premier Joe Handley is running for the Liberals... and that means it could potentially be a 3-way race and if races in the North are more about the individual candidate then the Liberals have the best known of them so far, or at least equal to the NDP in name recognition. Could be interesting...
    09 09 05 Gerry
    This should be too close to call at the very least. The Conservatives have done a lot in the North and our neighbouring will certainly be a presence. Moreover, I can't see the NDP going anywhere but down while the Conservatives should hold their own, at least outside of Quebec.
    09 08 31 Observer
    The fact is that the NDP leads large ridings like Algoma, Thunder Bay, Nickelt Belt, Skeena, BC Southern Interior, Churchill and Western Arctic. If Conservatives want to see an all blue map with some orange and red dots on the election night, I don't know if they have the money necessary to achieve that (indeed they would need to buy the voters).
    09 08 29 Stevo
    The Conservatives would dearly love to snatch this riding, as well as Yukon. I imagine it would warm the heart of many a Conservative to see, on those election night maps where they colour-code the ridings, almost the entire map (west and north of Quebec, anyway) bathed in blue with just a few tiny red and orange dots (regardless of the fact that those dots much of the population).
    NWT won't be easy but I suspect the Tories will put a disproportionate amount of resources here. Too close to call.
    09 08 25 wyatt
    The Tories will gain one here. Voter turnout went down in '08, but the Tories vaulted into second place, losing by less than 600. Look for Harper to visit again, and for Leona Aglukkaq to be a strong presence.
    09 08 23 Observer
    I don't see this riding going back Liberal or the Conservatives winning here because they don't have tradition of being strong in NWT. Bevington reelected is the most probable result.

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