Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2014


Prediction Changed
2014-05-03 22:33:00

Constituency Profile


Armstrong, Teresa

Hamadi, Ali

Harnick, Tim

Marcellin, Marcel

McKeever, Paul

Robson, Chris

Sorrell, William

Teresa Armstrong


  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (London-Fanshawe)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction

    2011 Result:

    2007 Result:

    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    14 06 02 prognosticator15
    This is a two way race, between an NDP and a known Conservative, both with strong campaigns. Though the Liberals held this riding provincially in 2003-2011, their candidate this time is weak, not well advertised beyond official posters, and not a very eloquent speaker, and Liberal chances are much less than in an interesting three-way race in London West or in an almost certainly Liberal LNC. It is evident the Liberals concentrate forces elsewhere to keep themselves in power, and do not run a serious campaign here. I expect the Liberals to lose votes compared to the 2011 election and to come third this time, while the NDP candidate will hold or raise votes slightly. Some Liberals may switch to the PCs and to Robson, but the PCs also need marginal 'angry' voters, and if those show at the polls here, they may be, unlike in many other places, evenly divided between the PCs and the NDP. The suburbia that AS mentions below, will be more likely to vote PC, but they are likely to be counterbalanced by the working class populist irregular voters that the NDP attracts best. New PC vote is highly unlikely to offset NDP advantages.
    14 05 23 A.S.
    So yes, you don't have to be named 'Irene Mathyssen' to win for the NDP around these parts--and it's incredible to consider how electorally dead-zoneish London was for the NDP a quarter century or more ago, back when it was assumed that the Peterson Liberals would unify left-right-centre into heartland eternity. And the current NDP strength is all the weirder considering how much of Fanshawe is postwar suburbia a la Mississauga--by dumb luck, the Rae-era seed within London didn't wilt and die post-Rae, it actually took root. In strange places. So if you want to verify some extra-Hamiltonian node where where heartland Horwathism traces its background, London-Fanshawe's a good place to start...
    14 05 18 LB
    This is an NDP riding through and through. Even with Horwath taking a nosedive in the polls, she remains competitive in the Southwest. As long as she is competitive (i.e. above 24% or so) she will hold this one.
    14 05 04 monkey
    As a working class area, this is the one London riding that the PCs have no chance at winning (London West is winneable and maybe London North Centre if the Liberals tanks) and likewise the left of centre vote has united behind the NDP, so stays NDP.
    14 05 03 Numbers Pundit
    All trends and recent election results heavily favour Armstrong. The Liberal share of the vote won't likely better anything from 2011. Any late campaign progressive-voter rally province-wide to Wynne to stave off Hudak is the only variable influencing the outcome in this riding. But even still, Armstrong finished solidly in 2011, trending in excess of 30% points ahead of her party's provincial result. Even if the NDP were to collapse provincially (very unlikely), Armstrong could likely still get re-elected with 40% of the vote. London-Fanshawe had been until the late 2000s, one of the few ridings at both the provincial and federal levels that always trended 1/3 to the Grits, 1/3 to the Tories, 1/3 to the NDP. However of late as demographics favouring the Tories and Grits move out of the extreme south-end of London for neighbourhoods further north or west, the NDP is able to consolidate. Were the riding re-drawn to include Lambeth and booming developments in the stretch between Wonderland and Colonel Talbot roads along the Southdale corridor - the Tories would be in considerably better play. Were Elgin-Middlesex-London not to have a Tory incumbent in Jeff Yurek, the London-Fanshawe candidate Chris Robson would easily play well in the former riding. If the NDP falter here, they will be bleeding across the province on E-day.
    13 05 02 Gone Fishing
    I think this is the NDPs seat barring a catastrophic campaign. East London is poor London, in fact it is hurting most from plant closures and at one time was one of the lowest income ridings in the province. I think that is still true but the point being it's as blue collar as the west is well heeled.
    Last I read that's the profile of those the NDP are committed to defending. If the PCs were to take this one it would be in a sweep. I can't see the Liberals taking it back, it was their weakest link before they ran Ramal out on his backside last election.
    13 04 16 Politically Correct
    The Conservatives do have a good candidate running here, and ordinarily I would agree that this is NDP country. However, the NDP candidate is very weak, and from what I am told, the Conservative candidate is very well organized. I expect this will be a dog fight, right to the end.
    13 03 17 seasaw
    The PC's have a star candidate, Dr. Chris Robson here. Such a waste of talent, since he would have had a shot in North-Centre, but Fanshawe is the most left leaning of London ridings and the NDP will prevail.
    13 03 15 kingstonstudent
    London's east end has turned into fairly solid NDP territory over the past 10 or so years. Unless the Liberals can coax someone like Pat O'Brien out of retirement, this seat should be a cakewalk for the NDP.

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