Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-04-15 09:01:00

Constituency Profile


Caranci, Roger

Chahbar, Jim

Mathyssen, Irene

Peloza, Matthew

Rancourt, G.J.

Irene Mathyssen

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • london-fanshawe (187/187 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 30 S.Lewis
    Liberals are dreaming if they think they have a shot at picking up this riding. Irene Mathyssen has strong support across the community spectrum here. Small business owners, faith community leaders (both Christian and Muslim), and VETERANS are endorsing her. That's pretty powerful stuff. The Liberal candidate's name recognition is...at best...going to send half the Liberal support to the NDP. He was a dividing, very right wing figure on council whose appeal will be limited to ‘blue-liberals’. This one will go NDP by a LARGE margin.
    11 04 30 prognosticator15
    Earlier in the campaign, I thought this would be a close NDP-CPC race, but the CPC candidate does not seem to pick up support. Muslim community from across political spectrum would be behind him, but his religion does not appeal to many voters, and it's hard to pick non-Muslim voters from Liberals and the NDP for the CPC here. And in this blue-collar relatively low-income riding the political support is highly volatile. They go in several directions, to LPC, NDP and the CHP. Christian Heritage Party may have its best riding and its strongest candidate here, advertised everywhere, even on many private lots. They will not win here, but they split the CPC vote in a major way. The Greens will definitely take some votes. But one other important factor is many are afraid of NDP victory, not of the candidate, but of the party (if they indeed can be distinguished considering the degree of the NDP centralization), with its anti-small business, pro-social spending agenda. With the rise of the party, this becomes important and there may be some bleeding of NDP electoral support, but where? Not to the CPC (in recent municipal elections most areas represented by Mathisen voted for left councillors), some to the CHP and some to the Liberals. It is very risky to predict a Liberal victory here when the NDP is polling well in the province, but with a Liberal base in the riding and a threat of NDP rise, many traditionally left voters beyond the NDP core are likely to switch to the Liberals and to its high-profile candidate, a former city councillor. Anyone really has a chance here, yet it is strange that if the Liberals pick up any one new seat in Ontario (a big IF of course), this may be the likeliest, the one currently held by the NDP. The question is how strong this trend is going to be, my guess is fairly strong. So, TCTC, but if I have to call for someone, I would say a likely Liberal pick-up. If an anti-NDP trend is not too strong, this would be a missed Liberal opportunity.
    11 04 16 M. Lunn
    While not the strongest NDP riding, they should win by default. Even the best polls only show the Tories doing marginally better than last time around so not enough to win here, while the Liberals only got 20% so if they had a star candidate they might have a shot, but since they don't I doubt they will pick this up. For both the Liberals and Tories the focus will be on London West which is the only London area riding still in play.
    11 04 16 W.Druer
    After attending an all candidates meeting for this riding last night, it is pretty clear that Irene Mathyssen will be re-elected by a very healthy margin. The Conservative candidate was unable to answer any questions coherently, he could not even repeat his party talking points. Honestly, he was the laughing stock of the night. The Liberal candidate seemed to be basically repeating everything Irene said, and it didn't wash. His applause came the group he came in with. People in the crowd noticed because it was actually almost to the point of rude. Mathyssen on the other hand was able to speak to people personally before and after the event. She responded genuinely to questions. She didn't seem scripted, talking about both her local work and the NDP platform. If enough voters meet these 3 in person, it won't even be a contest. In 3 different articles in the past week the London Free Press, a SunMedia paper, has indicated Mathyssen is expected to be re-elected, that's pretty telling.
    11 04 16 Nysuloem
    I thought I would at least note that this is one riding where the Christian Heritage Party is very visible this year. They had their signs up earlier than almost every other party.
    11 04 15 burlivespipe
    Before Irene this was frequently in the Liberal corner; while demographics make this a natural fit for the NdP, gentrification and an older voting base will help this swing back red. It will be close and depend upon who has momentum on election day. This is a riding where the two top contenders are fairly equal, machine wise.
    11 04 13
    Still to close to call but the Red and Orange teams are getting desperate as poll after poll shows them making no dent in Tory support anywhere.
    Just witness this riding's commentary about strategic voting, the debate is shifting to vote for ABC and that is a shame because when you vote against something instead of for your principals you must struggle when looking in the mirror.
    I still think this is Mathyssen's to hold but the Liberals are becoming less relevant as they become more desperate. Don't rule out the Arab vote shifting. A lot of Liberals don't want to admit they are no longer the natural choice for immigrant voters. Witness existing Tory MPs of ethnic origins.
    I'm going to knock Roger Caranci back down to third with the Conservatives close but still lacking enough support to put Chabar over the top. At least not yet. A lot of people I have talked to in the riding are NDP supporters but nervous and they don't like Caranci's record on council so the upset possibility is there but Irene will hold on if nothing changes nationally.
    11 04 11 MF
    To SDW: Seriously, how many people are now going to refuse to vote for Irene Mathyssen because of this 19-year-old student? Is it higher than zero? As for sss's point about stopping a Harper majority - the riding is held by the NDP already, so how does getting rid of Mathyssen achieve that objective? The Liberals came a very distant third last time, and a big swing of NDP votes to the Liberals would more likely help than hurt Harper here - as it would allow the Tory to come up the middle to win! In the last EPP go-around, we were told that ‘laptopgate’ would do Mathyssen in - then she went on to greatly increase her share of the vote! Most of the polls are showing the NDP in their ‘natural’ range and even if they slip a bit, this should hold this one.
    11 04 10 s.s.s
    I think, it will be close between irene and roger and I think the liberal vote will come back, and I would not be surprised if the liberals win by few hunderded votes, and I think if people vote NDP, they are helping harper to get a majority, so people have to think sratigic voting this time
    11 04 09 SDW
    With people now aware that Awish Aslam wasn't a ‘19 year old student, trying to make a choice’ but an NDP campaigner trying to create an issue - the Liberal candidate will probably gain the votes of some disenchanted NDP voters. People really hate being played for fools.
    11 04 08 DL
    Easy NDP hold. Mathyssen won by a huge margin last time. NDP support across Ontario is more or less unchanged from 2008 while Liberal support is even lower (Ipsos Apr. 8 NDP 17%, Forum April 7 NDP 18%, Angus Reid Apr. 6 NDP 19%, Environics April 6 NDP 21%). If the NDP loses here - it will be to the Tories not the Liberals.
    11 04 08
    NDP support in Ontario has collapsed..from 23% down to 11%(Nanos)..The NDP cannot hold this seat
    11 04 06
    Mathyssen won this rather handily last time around but this time the Liberal candidate (Roger Caranci) has been working the riding hard for over a year. Chabar commands some interesting support among muslim/arab crowd.
    Unless their is a major shift in the polls I don't see this one changing the NDP will be putting a lot of resources into this one.
    However if the Conservative support grows province wide there is an OUTSIDE shot this one goes blue
    Caranci will be a less distant second than the results last time but it's hers to lose.
    11 04 02 M. Lunn
    In all likelihood, the NDP should hold this, however despite the poor showing last election, the Liberals have won this before thus I wouldn't discount them quite yet. Likewise the Tories may not be strong here, but if they can get 35% of the vote and have a strong split between the Liberals and NDP, they could win this, after all that is how Mike Harris won this in both 1995 and 1999. Still this is the NDP's to lose.
    11 03 29 M
    I wouldn't call their support hardline. They simply think the most free, democratic state in the middle east should be allowed to exist. Only those who believe the Jews should be sent back to Europe would be upset with the Conservatives over that.
    11 03 28 S
    The Arab vote will not go to the Conservatives due to their hard line support of Israel. They will go NDP and may be Liberal.
    11 03 28 M
    Irene Mathyssen is too much of a political force in this riding for the other parties to have any chance at defeating her. The conservatives have nominated Jim Chabar who may attract a lot of arab voters who live in the riding. Ultimately, any new support that Chabar may attract won't be enough to withstand the union and blue-collar votes behind Mathyssen.
    11 03 27 In the know
    Roger was a woeful member of council. Used it to practice being a back bench heckler. Would not work anywhere near as hard as Irene has.
    11 03 23 LondonMike
    Irene is simply too popular to be defeated. She's the most adept and hard working politicians I've ever seen. Roger Caranci is also popular as a former city councillor, but it's very unlikely to see a change here.
    09 01 01 A.S.
    By all accounts, Mathyssen should have been toast in '08; instead, she enjoyed London's easiest electoral cruise of all--yet I still can't help sensing a taking-things-for-granted vulnerability. Though at the rate things are going, it might be more along the lines of how the federal NDP in Sask got dampened and doused in this century, i.e. in a furthering of what happened in '08, everything strategically leveraging t/w the Tories...
    09 12 16 RajP
    I've been hearing a lot of anger from people, especially students, since Mathyssen's unapologetic support for the London transit strike. I think the Conservatives and Liberals will mount a brutal campaign next election.
    09 11 18 binriso
    The Conservatives lost votes here too last time, and the Liberals dropped about half of their votes from 06 which leaves the NDP winning again by default.
    09 10 11 Phoenix
    Irene Mathyssen should do just fine. Even with the awkwardness of Laptop-gate (a tempest in a teapot, to be sure), she increased her margin of victory here last time - though she might owe that more to Glen Pearson's migration to London North Centre than anything else. Of course, the NDP was the only major party that didn't decrease its raw vote total here from 2006 to 2008, so Mathyssen obviously has some magic of her own. Even with the if the current Tory-surge numbers in Ontario were to materialize on election, day, Mathyssen would still probably win. (In fact, it's worth surmising that a Tory surge would make her MORE likely win - would Liberals abandon their third-place ship in this riding to vote strategically for her?)
    09 10 03 Gone Fishing
    @ David. let me be clear Irene is my prediction to win. I spoke of some polls and pundits suggesting that Jack and company would avoid an election becasuse of soft support. I suggested IF that slide continued this could turn. Sorry I didn't mean to suggest a slide in terms of a plummet more of a kiddie land slide and an IF not a certainty. As in IF a slide occurs/continues than trouble here.
    Now as of latest polls (which change every day) the slide is turning into a surge but please don't get too caught up in the terminology an election is a long way off in my opinion.
    09 09 29 David Y.
    I'd like to know what 'slide' Gone Fishing is referring to!
    The latest polls show the NDP at exactly the same level of support they received in the 2008 election, and history has shown in the 2004, 2006, and 2008 elections that the NDP gains support once an election is called.
    Irene M.'s margin of victory went from 991 votes in 2006 to 5013 in 2008. Unless she leaves voluntarily, it won't be hard predicting her return to Parliament after the next election.
    NDP hold!
    09 09 27 Gone Fishing
    I'm being a realist not an idealist to say that she is likely strong if she stays on. But.....
    Something is up in this riding. Irene's face is in the local rag (London Free Press) three or four times this week with provincial leader Andrea H. Smiling Jack Layton has also been by once to see both of them.
    Here's a wild card to ponder. Jack is viewed by some as a dead man walking in Ottawa. With polls forcing his decision to prop up the Conservatives or get slaughtered. David Miller is leaving Toronto Mayoral race and Jack is being touted in some circles as a replacement. He's someone Toronto just might vote for (they did Miller three times)
    Now suppose the NDP slide continues long enough so that they need to continue propping up the government and next year Irene gets her cash for life lottery pension. Do you suppose with so much attention from Provincial NDP and a possible wipeout federally that Irene runs against the McGuinty Liberals? This is the weakest provincial riding for McG.
    I'm not saying I'm just saying. If the wildcard doesn't play out Irene's fortunes will be tied to the party's fate and who runs against her. London is a swing city (not a ‘swinger’ city) and for the most part both provincially and federally seems to vote with the winner.
    The last few elections with no clear cut majority winner London has delivered a mix of MPS from all parties. If the Tory machine is rolling as the polls seem to be suggesting COULD happen I see that London goes blue. I'm not saying Irene is not a good MP but she lacks the profile of what would make her a giant to be slayed in a romp. Compared to say Liberal Glenn Pearson in London North. If London wants to slow the Tory tide (again I'm reaching here but there is a case for it) then Londoners who oppose will leave Irene to the wolves to prop up Glenn next door.
    Hey there is a lot of fence sitting here, I am just saying this is not one of those ridings with a candidate that is a shoe in even if she does a decent job.
    09 09 05 MF
    Many predicted Irene Mathyssen's electoral demise due to ‘Laptop-gate’ (remember that?) but she obviously is quite personally popular and Dion's leadership was much more scandalous, with the Liberals losing about half their '06 vote and coming in a distant third behind the Conservatives, who more or less held onto their vote. I can't see a revitalized Liberal Party taking Fanshawe away from the NDP at this point, and it's hard to say if they'll even beat the Tories for second place.
    09 08 26 Observer
    Against all predictions, Irene Mathyssen increased her victory margin to 12.3%. No challenger can beat Irene Mathyssen, one of the most popular MP's for London-Fanshawe.

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