Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Niagara Falls

Prediction Changed
2014-06-07 22:55:00

Constituency Profile


Beam, John

Bitter, Clarke

Gates, Wayne

Maves, Bart

Panucci, Ralph

Tupman, Lionel

Wayne Gates


  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Niagara Falls)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction

    2011 Result:

    2007 Result:

    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    14 06 09 A.S.
    Given Wayne Redekop's overachievement in 2011, there should have been no doubt in the world that after one byelection shocker after another, the ONDP would be over-the-falls-in-a-barrel about yet *another* deliriously low-hanging byelection target...that it was a closer race than the final polls were predicting has more to do with, in the end, this actually having been arguably Bart Maves' seat to lose. (Sure, he was an old Harris hack; but municipal politics ought to have mellowed that wound somewhat, right?). But the discrepancy in those pre-byelection polls leaves me with a parallel guardedness about the present Forum poll showing Gates in the lead--though if true, it's definitely telling something about Hudak might wind up blowing yet *another* election (and why Horwath populism, er, 'makes sense', no matter what others say). But hey; as Chris Hadfield (not to mention Saint Jack) will tell you, you can't beat moustache appeal. (Oh, and an interesting byelection tidbit that I'd forecast: that Old NOTL's Shavian gentility actually *did* turn out to be a token blip of Wynne Liberal strength.)
    14 06 08 Mark R,
    A number of polls in the southwest show the Liberal vote collapsing and largely moving to the NDP - if the Niagara Falls Forum poll is any indication, the NDP may pick up a number of seats that might be unexpected. Gates incumbency and NDP central support appears to have made this one move to the NDP column. Bradley may hang on in St Kitt's however I don't believe he's that far ahead.
    14 06 07 Toronto Star/Forum Poll
    Niagara Falls (polled Sunday, 468 people, accurate to within 5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20) New Democrat Wayne Gates 44 per cent, Progressive Conservative Bart Maves 34 per cent, Liberal Lionel Tupman 16 per cent, Green Clarke Bitter 4 per cent.
    14 06 06 Trinity-Spadina Progressive
    According to a Forum riding poll, 'Radical Wayne' looks like he's well positioned to hang on (leading 44%-34%). The Liberal vote has collapsed in Niagara Falls and it looks like the anti-Tory vote is coalescing around the NDP.
    14 06 03 Former Liberal Executive
    I was just in the riding for a few hours and noticed that PC candidate, Bart Maves were two to one over all the other candidates combined. Those signs seemed to all be on private property whereas the scattered NDP signage was along public roads. The folks I visited with in NF are not shy about voicing their anger over the scandals. My best guess is that unless their is an orange wave suddenly appearing across the entire region, that this riding will certainly be PC after the votes are counted
    14 05 29 Arden
    With the LPO candidate pretty invisible here, I think this will go to the NDP party. Should be a tight race though.
    14 05 22 Alice
    Tight race between the Tories and the NDP. I expect a PC win here with a few points to spare.
    14 05 21 ME
    I spent today in the riding...counting signs and talking with people...this is very much a 2 way race with the Liberal vote collapsing...It will go NDP to stop Hudak..
    14 05 11 Jeff R.
    The NDP might hold this but it'll be tough. The NDP runs a tight by-election ship that they can't replicate in a province-wide election. All their by-election intel had the party expecting a strong win, beating the PCs by around 5-6%, only to find on election night that it was more like 3%. That's a strong signal that this riding might change hands this time.
    14 05 09 Dr Bear
    I think the NDP will keep this riding. If voters here really liked Hudak's vision, they would have elected the PC candidate in the byelection. I'm of the opinion that the NDP will take most of the
    14 05 05 R.O.
    True ndp did win this riding in recent by election but its very common for ridings to flip after by elections and vote for other parties . I don
    14 05 03 Teddy Boragina
    Don't count the NDP out. They currently hold the riding thanks to a by-election, one in which turnout was pretty good (for a by-election anyway)
    There's a chance they could keep the riding on the splits.
    14 05 02 Politico
    Gates has been in office for a very short time, but incumbency will give him an advantage as he will be able to consolidate the anti-Hudak vote in the general election. Expect the Liberals not to campaign hard here given their abysmal showing in the recent by-election. Most Niagara Liberals will be in St. Catharines helping Bradley hold on to his seat.
    13 02 16 Jack Cox
    Craitor barely hung on and the Liberals are at least a little lower in the polls for this seat to be swung to the Tories.
    13 03 04 seasaw
    This one came right down the wire the last time and the PC's had one of their worst campaigns. Right now, we have to call this one the way it is. I disagree with the previous poster, the NDP candidate may not have that much of an impact. Right now, the Liberal support is at a 30 year low, which means they probably won't win ridings like this one. Remember, the PC's only have to pick up 500-1000 votes here. Unless things change, it'll be silly to predict a Liberal win here.
    11 02 16 jdaku
    This riding will be determined by whether or not popular past mayor of Fort Erie Wayne Redekop runs again for the NDP. If Wayne runs, he will not win, but he will once again take a lot of votes from Craitor allowing the PC's to win with recycled Mike Harris clone and career politician Bart Maves. If Redekop does not win, then Craitor cruises to victory.
    This riding all comes down to Mr. Redekop.
    13 02 10 LFC Ottawa
    It was a close race last time with a weak PC central campaign. Craitor is never in the house, and after the election he will never have to be there again.

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