Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Ottawa West-Nepean

Prediction Changed
2014-06-11 19:13:00

Constituency Profile


Brooks, Matthew

Chiarelli, Bob

Cullen, Alex

Denley, Randall

Hill, Alex

Bob Chiarelli


  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Ottawa West-Nepean)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction

    2011 Result:

    2007 Result:

    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    14 06 10 Marco Ricci
    This is another riding in the Ottawa area that many of us who live in the city thought would go to the PC's in 2011 with Randall Denley, but Bob Chiarelli pulled off a win by around 1,000 votes. A couple of weeks ago it looked like Chiarelli had the edge here and was giving Denley a good fight, but once again we may not know until E-Day. The riding poll seems to give Denley a small edge so I think he may pull off the win here for the PC's depending on whether the PC numbers in Eastern Ontario hold up.
    14 06 07 Toronto Star/Forum Poll
    Ottawa West-Nepean (polled Sunday, 650 people, accurate to within 4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20) Progressive Conservative Randall Denley 45 per cent, Liberal Bob Chiarelli 38 per cent, New Democrat Alex Cullen 12 per cent, Green Alex Hill 4 per cent.
    14 06 07 precision
    Really interested in hearing from this riding's voters, as the recent poll from Forum June 7 has Chiarelli trailing. Did the Wynne/Trudeau rally galvanize the Libs in this riding? Do you think the poll will motivate Libs to GOTV? I will be watching this closely on election night. If Chiarelli loses, Libs may lose seat count. If he wins, they could be moving towards majority.
    14 06 06 northerner
    'Alice' is again predicting a liberal win without any explanation as to why...as though wishful thinking will somehow change the riding name from Ottawa West-Nepean to Toronto Center.
    Let's sift through the reasons the the libs are going to lose this. The PC party is polling over 50% in eastern Ontario. Again....Alice must think this is happening somewhere else other than here......
    The PC's are getting one out of every two voters in eastern Ontario. Chiarelli...fried or grilled???
    14 06 05 LFC Ottawa
    Hudak just committed political suicide this morning in this riding, along with Ottawa South, possibly in Orleans as well with his LRT announcement.
    14 06 02 A.S.
    Cullen is more nuisance than anything--who knows whether he'll even match his '99 figure--and yes, the marginality of his post-mayoral provincial victories, plus the scale of his mayoral defeat in 2006 and his age, will make Chiarelli look perpetually sitting-duckish. Yet there's a 'plumpedness' to local Tory strength, too--remember how John Baird's had problems lifting his federal shares above a certain level. Given how the province-wide campaign strategies are going, might Cullen take from *Denley*? (Or urban-friendly Wynne, for that matter. Yeah, what irony: Wynne as a bigger plus in OWN than McGuinty was.)
    14 05 30 GV
    Workhorse energy minister Chiarelli, in my view, won't be able to fend off Denley this time. The issue for him is the NDP's Alex Cullen, a mildly perennial candidate who, as a turncoat, became this riding's only ever Dipper MPP--promptly losing reelection in 1999. Through his outspoken and diligent work as a city councillor, Cullen built his profile in this riding's less affluent northwestern neighbourhoods. Four years off council are more than enough to deny him any shot at the seat, but I suspect he'll be an effective spoiler. Chiarelli's also kind of old.
    14 05 29 Arden
    The PC party does not seem to be gaining traction in this area based on polling. Should be a hold for the LPO, though potentially a close one.
    14 05 29 maxvillejim
    Even though it should be close, I can't believe the PC's can't swing about 175 votes in this riding, as Chiarelli has accumulated too much Liberal baggage.
    14 05 25 R.O.
    I've been to this riding before and seen elections take place in this riding . its always a close race between liberal and conservative candidates . its much closer than some of the other urban Ottawa ridings. Bob Chiarelli is a high profile candidate for the liberals but it's a riding the Ontario pc's have been doing well in and its not out of the question for Randall Denley to win this one . there is also a higher profile ndp candidate than normal as Alex Cullen running so it's a different race than before .
    14 05 22 Alice
    The post Jim Watson era has left his riding in perpetual play. I expect Chiarelli, a veteran politician, to hold the seat with just as close a margin as 2011.
    14 05 16 Marco Ricci
    I thought both Chiarelli and Denley said they weren't going to run again, so I was surprised when they both did. Now we have a re-match with the same candidates. I see 2 Liberal predictions and 2 PC predictions. I think that indicates that we may not know who will win here until election night. It depends on the provincial trends. Chiarelli may not be able to hang on here this time if Wynne does worse than McGuinty in the provincial trend. He also may lose some votes to the NDP's Alex Cullen (who seems to have decided to run here after not getting the nomination in Ottawa Centre). Cullen is better-known than the NDP candidate in 2011, and that could hurt Chiarelli and help Denley. Chiarelli also did not win this riding by as large a margin as Jim Watson did. However, it's not in the bag yet for Denley as last election's campaign shows that he may not yet have what is required to seal the deal, and his fate also depends on whether Hudak can win on election day. This riding has a strong Conservative base, but it's not overwhelmingly Conservative as federally John Baird has decided to move to another riding for the 2015 election. That indicates there is a strong Liberal core here as well.
    14 05 15 John
    The Liberals should hold on to this one. Denley couldn't unseat the ex-Mayor last time around and there is no reason to think that he'll be able to in this election.
    This public servant-heavy riding has just come through huge cuts at the federal level and the talk of cuts provincially will have them casting anybody-but-Hudak ballots.
    14 05 11
    With the PCs polling well in Eastern Ontario, this should be a PC pickup. Chiarelli is the Liberals' main advantage, but I don't think it will be enough to pull them through this time around.
    14 05 11 seasaw
    This won is probably going to go right down the wire, but it's still going to stay Liberal, why ? Because, Bob is the candidate and he has a sort of Bobness about him. He's like a cat, has nine lives and no matter how you throw him, he always lands on his feet. So, Liberal hold.
    13 02 10 LFC Ottawa
    Once again, this will be the race to watch in Ottawa. I expect Randall to finally take it, but Bob wont go down without a fight till the last vote. Wynne v. McGuinty will be the difference here, with the seniors in the Britannia area staying home as opposed to voting Liberal. PC win, as close as it was in 2011.

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