Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-19 18:24:17

Constituency Profile


Bezanson, Allan

Carvery, Irvine

Fillmore, Andy

Leslie, Megan

Trappenberg, Thomas

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 1520.33%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (239/241 polls, 99.86% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Megan Leslie

   Halifax West
   (2/241 polls, 0.14% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Geoff Regan


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15 10 18 JC
I see Leslie as the Laurie Blakeman of this election campaign, For those not familiar, Blakeman lost her seat in Edmonton Centre to the Provincial NDP this year despite being extremely popular in her riding because the NDP just had an overwhelming lead in the polls in Alberta, it is the exact same thing here. Andy Fillmore will win this riding on account of the liberal polling strength in the Atlantic, Leslie is going to lose because of a bad national campaign by the NDP and overwhelming liberal support in this area. I think you are making a grave mistake calling this NDP
15 10 17 SC
From my conversations with people in the Liberals' Atlantic campaign apparatus today, they apparently think they have a real shot at this seat. I'm agnostic on what the result will be.
15 10 17 DSR
Big Liberal rally in Halifax this morning. The Libs won every provincial seat in this riding last year and I'm going with David Akin who now rates this as likely Red. Sackville will remain with the NDP and I'm still not entirely certain how South Shore will play out - although I would give Jordan the edge - but otherwise it will be a Liberal sweep in NS.
15 10 17 Atlantic Election Guy
When this election began, I wrote about how Megan Leslie's dominated the landscape. Over time, Andy Fillmore's signs have popped up everywhere. Justin Trudeau visited this morning in a hope to give Fillmore a boost over the finish line. In talking with a number of friends in the riding (most of which voted for Megan last time), they are switching to Fillmore because he is a great candidate and fits the infrastructure plan perfectly for the Liberals. This could be the shock of the election if Fillmore takes down the most high profile NDP candidate of the East.
15 10 14 Spx
Even though Halifax was never in the TCTC colomn, it should have been. I think it will be very, very close .. probably won only by 1-2%. Even with those record high numbers for the Liberals I favour the NDP holding this one.
15 10 13 Marco Ricci
I guess the question here is to what extent can Leslie's personal popularity hold off a bigger than expected Liberal increase.
When reporter John Ivison profiled this riding a few weeks ago, he said that Leslie still had the edge. But it's possible that could now change if it looks like Mulcair & the NDP are going down Nationally.
The Liberals did come close to beating former NDP leader Alexa McDonough here in 2004. That was when Sheila Fougere ran for the Liberals. Fougere was a City Councillor and that gave here a high profile. Andy Fillmore doesn't have as a high of a profile, so perhaps he won't come as close as Sheila Fougere did to Alexa McDonough in 2004.
On the other hand, the Trudeau Liberals look poised to win Nova Scotia by a larger margin than Paul Martin's Liberals in 2004. So the lower profile of Filmore may not be an issue.
It would be interesting to see a riding poll here. Surprised it hasn't been given one by the pollsters yet. TCTC.
15 10 12 Teddy Boragina
Let's remember that poll after poll has shown the Liberals are at minimum, expected to double their vote in the Atlantic.
It is getting to the point that Megan Leslie would need to be the most locally popular MP in the history of ever for the math trends to be wrong.
However, the trend is not done yet, and there is time for a reversal. Hence, I'm calling this one TCTC.
15 10 11 M
With the Liberals polling over 50% in Atlantic Canada, only a couple of NDP members that may survive. Tories are facing a complete shutout in Atlantic Canada. I don't think the NDP will be able to hold this seat this time. Liberal gain.
15 10 13 Bridge
The NDP expected to hold this seat without more than a token struggle. Recent polling by several agencies has the NDP and Liberal candidates
in a tight race. Given that the NDP polling figures are down 11% from the 2011 election results, while the Liberal is up by more than 15%, to place both within the margin of error, at 0.8%, this seat remains TOO CLOSE TO CALL six days before polling day.
15 10 12 Jimmy
NDP support has taken a huge hit, yes Leslie has great popularity. However this year is looking a red wave in Nova Scotia. I wont be surprised to see a red sweep across this province, stoffer being the possible exception.
15 10 10 Jack Cox
I can almost just smell an upset here and possibly in Sackville, even with the personal popularity of Megan Leslie, she may not be able to overcome a disastrous national campaign by Mulcair. There are examples of many MPs who while personally popular were weighed down by bad campaigns and this might be one of htem.
15 10 08 Craig Hubley
I now repeat my original opinion with just one slight modification:
'Megan Leslie is extremely personally popular despite being a policy lightweight - she's too young for the extremely difficult job she has. She's not going away' but may well be moving to provincial politics due to 'the absurd NDP decision to back Energy East, this doesn't affect Nova Scotia as directly as New Brunswick' but it's become THE issue in coastal ridings. 'One of the most popular incumbents in Nova Scotia' but one who may find her future in something other than the federal environment role.
15 10 06 Marco Ricci
Small chance of a Liberal win here if the NDP vote drops any further in the Atlantic.
I think Leslie's incumbency will probably save her, but it's a sign of how much things have turned badly for the NDP that 308 is now showing this riding as narrowly leaning Liberal.
15 10 05 Sou West Nova Scotian
I'm going to go against the grain here and say Fillmore wins this. NDP numbers seem to be tanking at the expense of the Liberals and even with the strength of Leslie's personal brand I see this as being a narrow Liberal win.
15 10 05 Bridge
This is shaping up to be a dash towards the finish line. Whatever her merits, Megan Leslie belongs to a party whose leader does not bring value added to her chances. If we judge by lawn signs, it is neck and neck between Leslie and Andy Fillmore of the Liberals. This one is too close to call two weeks before election day. what had looked like a slam-dunk for the NDP is now a horserace. Most exctiting campaign in this riding in years.
15 09 15 Jason
NDP hold even if they sink back to third place.
Leslie is popular in her riding. She has a high profile in the last parliament as deputy leader of the official opposition + the environmental critic.
15 09 08 RJC
I think A.S. has pegged this one correctly. Leslie is definitely the favourite and will likely win, but if the Liberals suddenly find themselves headed for government (especially majority government), they could at least make this one close, particularly since they are running on a fairly progressive platform (C-51 aside).
Although the facts are largely different, it's worthwhile remembering that most of Halifax switched from NDP to Liberal in the last provincial election, so the basic concept isn't an impossibility.
15 09 05 Agent Red
The Liberals are chipping away at Megan Leslie's lead. This is her's to lose and if she does lose, it will be the Liberals who will take it.
I'm still calling it an NDP win, but the margin is narrowing.
15 09 05 A.S.
Depends on the Grits, really--Halifax has always been a tempting target for 'urban progressive' Liberals, but their chances dipped with the C51 backlash; but now that Team Justin's trying to reverse that with a Wynne-inspired 'out-progressive-the-Dippers' approach, it's not out of the question that Megan Leslie could suffer an Alexa-in-2004 scare. Longshot, though, unless we're looking at a Grit majority.
15 09 01 Tony
Megan Leslie probably will get into cabinet should NDP form government, no way will she lose this seat.
15 08 14 Atlantic Election Guy
If we are going by the signs that are already out around Halifax, Leslie should have no problem holding this seat. With her high profile in the NDP and this riding's left leaning history, this should be a walk for the NDP.
15 07 24 Prime Predictor
Megan Leslie is near the top of the NDP. This is her seat. NDP hold.
15 04 26 Docere
Megan Leslie is one of the most high profile members of the NDP caucus, and Halifax has become quite the NDP stronghold. She won this by a 2-1 margin last time, and I don't see her losing this even with an increased Liberal vote in Nova Scotia.
15 04 23 westnovascotian
Megan Leslie should have no trouble holding this riding barring a major collapse in NDP support combined with a huge spike in Liberal support. Provincial and federal politics do not always correlate, however with all the uproar in the downtown core regarding the provincial budget (film tax credits), I can't see the Liberals challenging Leslie in this election.
15 04 16 Madcaper
With the Provincial Liberals in a world of trouble due to the Film And TV tax cut it is definitely hurting the fortunes of the Federal Liberal Party. Most of those people who are angry with the Liberals in N.S. that have said they are no longer voting Liberal Federally will move to Meghan Leslie due to her immense personal popularity. This should make this seat an easier hold for the New Democrats especially when you consider the fact that the New Democrats are climbing in the polls.N.D.P.hold.
15 04 16 Marco Ricci
Mr. Dave's prediction below sounds like something made by an NDP partisan.
It's important that we try to be accurate in our predictions here and save the party spin. (eg. 'the Liberal leader smiles a lot, while saying little').
The Liberals are well ahead of the NDP in Nova Scotia, and that means that even ridings like this are projected to show a closer race than usual.
Justin Trudeau was just here in Halifax yesterday with Liberal candidate Andy Fillmore. Trudeau visited the Halifax Central Library & spoke to the press.
The visit received coverage in The Chronicle, and Trudeau spoke to protestors about their concerns on the film & tax credit and said he supports arts & culture.
I'm not predicting Megan Leslie will lose here, but she's not necessarily safe, either. The NDP recently moved Megan Leslie to Mulcair's desk in the NDP front row where Libby Davies was. I think that was done because the NDP knows Halifax may be close and they want Leslie next to Mulcair to improve her profile.
15 04 09 Mr. Dave
The personal popularity of Liberal incumbents like Brison, Cuzner, Eyking and Regan skewer whatever polling results give the Liberals a large lead in Nova Scotia, much the same way that Conservative ridings in Alberta skewer the results in their favour in that province.
Megan Leslie is on the NDP's front bench for a reason, and the constituents of Halifax aren't going to turf her because the Liberal leader smiles a lot, while saying little.
NDP hold.
15 03 29 ottawa99
Not sure where the idea that Leslie is low profile in caucus comes from-she's currently one of the party's deputy leaders. Although the Liberals are polling very well throughout the Atlantic region right now, and will almost certainly narrow the gap in this riding, Atlantic Canadians have a tendency to vote more for local candidates than for national platforms. Given Leslie's personal popularity in the riding, particularly in areas like the north end and around the universities, I predict she will pull through. It will be close though, and could go either way.
15 03 22 Brian A
It's been a few years now since Alexa retired, and more than a decade since she was the NDP leader, but Megan has managed to hold her own and make the seat hers. She's not super high-profile in caucus, and she's seen as something of a lightweight politically, but she's made a name for herself locally and that still counts for something. My heart wants to see her hold on here, and my head believes she will.
15 03 20 Fairview Resident
Leslie initially won in 2008 after McDonough retired by 43% to 28% over the Liberals when they were only 1% ahead in the province and their resources were too divided to really target the riding. Threehundredeight.com now estimates that the Liberals are ahead of the NDP in NS by 49% to 19%, or ahead in Atlantic Canada by 52% to 17%. That's the biggest gap between the parties since 1993, and the next biggest gap was 12.5% in NS in 2000. This is also the first election after the defeat of an unpopular provincial NDP government, when they lost to the Liberals by a much narrower 46% to 27% and their leader lost his seat. The Liberals will definitely target the riding this time.
Despite local factors, the numbers show that the NDP are going to lose most of their seats in Nova Scotia and this is likely one of them. Leslie may be well liked, but she isn't yet a fixture like Stoffer. Craig claims she is a lightweight, and I'd agree that she has made a few gaffes. More importantly however, the NDP cannot be 30 points behind and keep their seats. Leslie could definitely still hold, but it seems unlikely right now given how much the NDP has dropped in NS.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
Megan Leslie is extremely personally popular despite being a policy lightweight - she's too young for the extremely difficult job she has. She's not going away despite the absurd NDP decision to back Energy East, this doesn't affect Nova Scotia as directly as New Brunswick.
One of the most popular incumbents in Nova Scotia.

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