Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Canada Federal Election - 2015

New Brunswick Southwest


Prediction Changed
2015-03-19 18:24:17
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Graham, Andrew

Ludwig, Karen

MacIntosh, Gayla

Williamson, John


Population/populations
(2011 census)

66197


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

1870256.66%
769523.31%
447813.57%
16835.10%
Other 4541.38%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant


   New Brunswick Southwest
   (168/175 polls, 94.99% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
John Williamson
17900
7313
4270
1628
Other450


   Fredericton
   (7/175 polls, 5.01% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Hon. Keith Ashfield
802
382
208
55
Other4



 


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15 10 11 M
216.46.155.92
With the Liberals polling over 50% in Atlantic Canada, only a couple of NDP members that may survive. Tories are facing a complete shutout in Atlantic Canada.
15 10 10 Spx
70.53.241.122
I believe NB Southwest will be the only other riding with Fundy Royal which will stay Conservative east of QC. Even with the Liberals having record numbers this one should stay blue.
15 10 07 Craig Hubley
71.7.138.94
http://www.electionalmanac.com/ea/canada-election-polls-atlantic-canada/ has wildly erratic results for Conservatives (21-28% dropping outliers) over October 5 and 6. Also erratic for NDP. However all polls agree on a sharp Liberal rise (49-56% dropping outliers), to easily three times 2011 Layton/Ignatieff levels.
According to Nanos http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20151006%20Ballot%20TrackingE.pdf Conservative votes fall over 34% to Liberal as second choice, only 12% Green, and NDP votes fall 52% Liberal and only 8% Conservative, while Liberals fall 45% NDP 22% Con. So that sharp Liberal rise can only be at the expense of the Conservatives while any NDP losses can only add to Liberal totals. This is exactly why the two campaigns spend all their time attacking each other in the last days.
Momentum also counts: It's clearly with the Liberals and Trudeau added to it by visiting southern NB this week. Pressure is mounting on NDP Andrew Graham to throttle back and the NDP is shifting volunteers to the winnable Fundy Royal riding where Jennifer McKenzie will likely buck the tide and beat the Liberal result, even if she doesn't take the seat from Rob Moore.
So it's a risky call that assumes the NDP and Green vote will swing hard Liberal, but there is every reason to believe that is going to happen as this is exactly what the polls say is happening, in unprecedented numbers.
15 10 01 Craig Hubley
96.30.183.66
Threehundredeight.com shows, as of October 1, Green support at a whopping 11.4%. That's more than enough to hand this to the NDP even if no Liberal shifts their vote from what all sources seem to say is 3rd place candidate.
In fact that Green support is higher than anywhere else in the Maritimes other than Fredericton, where Mary-Lou Babineau is the strongest 'star' candidate the Greens have ever run in the Maritimes. Her campaign will be getting donations, volunteers, lip service, call-ins, family pressure, all from other Maritime ridings. The word is out: Mary Lou gets it this time, and NB Southwest and Fundy Royal will get that attention next time.
Just as a statistical fact, formal vote swaps just between NB Southwest and Fundy Royal Green voters, and Fredericton NDP voters, would certainly elect Andrew Graham and Jennifer McKenzie, with no one having to agree to vote for a Liberal. Add the Greens in Saint John -- Rothesay and Tobique Mactaquac to the Liberal totals and Wayne Long, T. J. Harvey also go to the House. Three of those four ridings participating probably elects Mary Lou Babineau in Fredericton for the Greens.
So voters in western NB including Fredericton have a pretty clear choice: Start to call friends, family and colleagues across riding boundaries and get Andrew Graham, Jennifer McKenzie, Wayne Long, T. J. Harvey and Mary Lou Babineau into the House to represent them... or let the party leaders and partisan paranoids rule their vote and end up with Richard Bragdon, Rob Moore, John Williamson, Rodney Weston and Keith Ashfield. Again.
All while knowing that if Harper gets *ZERO SEATS IN THE MARITIMES*, as is very possible this time, he could not possibly form a viable government even with the most seats.
So my question is, are the progressive voters of New Brunswick so stupid and partisan that they will not realize they can swing this whole thing, and put one of the strongest set of MPs that ever served into the House to stand for them? A set of MPs that, by the way, could all floor cross to any of the three parties any day, should one of them seriously betray NB.
15 09 13 A.S.
99.233.125.239
Beneath the '3-way' gesturing, David Akin's Predictionator-ing probably suggests something more along the lines of a 'normalizing' NDP-Lib parity beneath a presumed Con advantage. That said, I can see the point here: the history of PC solidity in NBSW might make the actual degree of present-day HarperCon solidity a little more inertia-illusory than it seems. Certainly, the resort-esque tone of Charlotte County--to many, the 'heart' of the riding--carries potential for disenfranchised Red Tories going wayward--but there's still too much retro-CoR inland stuff remaining. What *could* happen is the first under-40% Conservative result in an eternity (and yes, that eternity includes 1993)
15 09 06 DP
154.5.150.164
Interesting take on this riding from David Akins @ 'The Predicionator': 'I count just three true three-way races among all 338 ridings ? a three-way in this case being defined as a race where the winner in my model and two opponents are all within five points.
Both the NDP and Liberals are within 5 points of catching Conservative incumbent John Williamson in New Brunswick Southwest. This is a deeply small-c conservative part of New Brunswick. But will voters here surprise us all on Oct. 19?'
http://blogs.canoe.com/davidakin/politics/boy-this-is-close-labour-day-predicationator-seat-count/#more-114791
15 09 01 Two Words
142.167.183.134
John Williamson's racially-charged comments offended many across the country, but that sort of talk is unfortunately par for the course in the vernacular of rural southwestern New Brunswick, and certainly won't cost him his seat. In fact, with credible challenges being undertaken by opposition parties in several other Atlantic Canadian Tory strongholds, this is perhaps the safest Conservative seat east of Ontario this time around.
15 08 16 R.O.
24.146.23.226
John Williamson is one of the higher profile conservative mp's from New Brunswick and running for re election. This is historically one of the more conservative friendly ridings in NB. The ndp candidate has run a few times here but has remained along way back in past results. The conservatives should be able to hold this riding .
15 08 12 Craig Hubley
96.30.183.72
308 says the challenger in this seat is now the NDP, and puts the Con chance to win at 67%. Liberal voters shifting en masse to the NDP to finally defeat Conservatives in this region, sensing a chance to take it back some day when Conservatives are persona non grata in the region and the NDP disappoints in power, could easily turn this one into Harper loss.
Too weird to call. Leaving this one alone until election day, I think.
15 05 30 Craig Hubley
24.224.172.37
Changing my prediction after the departure of Peter MacKay. While NB is far less directly affected, the invigorated Liberal focus on Maritime seats will certainly be felt here. The departure of MacKay is being understood and interpreted by most ordinary people as meaning that the old PC Party no longer exists, no longer has any role or status in the Conservative Party, and that the thing to do if you ever want to moderate the Cons, or see a provincial PC government again, is sit on your hands for Harper.
The scent of blood is in the air and the campaign here will be much fiercer than expected. We may be seeing a massive change in Maritime politics with the old PCs shifting their loyalties from Harper/MacKay to Trudeau Liberals.
15 03 28 monkey
174.114.31.13
Notwithstanding John Williamson's stupid comments recently, this is probably the safest Tory riding in Atlantic Canada so if they lose this, they will likely win no seats in Atlantic Canada and do poorly nationally.
15 03 22 Brian A
24.235.112.42
Rural New Brunswick. A region that typically favours the Conservatives + a province where the Conservatives are still doing quite well = Conservative hold.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
66.49.210.99
This one was almost a third surviving PC riding in the great Conservative disaster of '93. Will safely stay in the CPC column. And I may visit this riding in the summer, I hear it's lovely there.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
76.11.94.51
These voters would happily drink any poison as long as it's coloured blue.
Literally. Poison.
Go visit the place.



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