Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-10-17 01:06:00

Constituency Profile


Briguene, Lynda

Doré Lefebvre, Rosane

Iacono, Angelo

Isopo, Renata

Purcarus, Gabriel

St-Hilaire, Daniel

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 2190.45%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (201/201 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Rosane Doré Lefebvre


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15 10 17 Marco Ricci
prognosticator15, when you use the phrase 'liberal media' it makes you sound like you have a conservative bias. The media in Canada is not liberal dominated - it is actually quite conservative. In fact, as many pundits pointed out tonight, quite a few National newspapers once again endorsed the Harper Conservatives, including the Globe & Mail (although it was more an endorsement of the CPC than of Harper himself). Since the Canadian media still has so many Conservative endorsements, how can it be a 'liberal media'.
Btw, polling shows the Liberals moving up in Quebec, too (they overtook the NDP in today's Nanos). And Leger is a Quebec pollster that has been showing improving Quebec numbers for the Liberals, so it's not something that has been made up by the media in 'Toronto'.
As for this riding, I agree that the NDP probably has a small edge here.
But it depends on how the Liberal & NDP numbers each hold up for Monday.
15 10 16 prognosticator15
NDP polling numbers in Quebec have actually stopped falling in the past week, so if one has to choose, is it still a favorite here, with a known candidate. It will be a close three-party race, though, and I doubt Lefebre repeats her success in vote numbers without an NDP waive, so I wonder where a portion of the NDP vote will go - some will be Liberal, some Bloc. Even Cons have a distant shot. I actually think Bloc has the next best chance as their constituency is similar to the one NDP took over in 2011, it's just the question of how many voters decide to switch back. I am not sure overstating Liberal poll advantages nationally by liberal media has as much impact in Quebec as in Toronto. A close race to watch on election night.
15 10 10 Teddy Boragina
My mathematical projections have had the Liberals winning here for quite some time now.
15 10 07 Marco Ricci
There is now a small chance in Alfred-Pellan of a Liberal pickup based on changing voting trends in Quebec.
15 09 20 A.S.
Laval's always been the perfect electoral 'middle zone' in Quebec, i.e. not too sovereigntist, not too federalist--perhaps reflected in how the Bloc incumbent was nearly tied with the Grits for second in 2011 (and now notionally even *more* nearly tied through redistribution). And the fact that Iacono's running again after overachieving under Iggy could make this a sleeper worth looking upon in case Justin's poised to recover lost ground in QC. Right now a pretty big 'if', but...
15 08 13 Bwill79
If the NDP's lead in Quebec in the mid to high 30% range holds between now, and election day, I see the NDP holding on to this riding, and its MP, Rosane Dore-Lefebvre, who has since become a rising prominent MP in the House of Commons serving as public security critic, being reelected for another term.
15 03 28 monkey
Tends to be a bellwether on Laval island asides from the Vimy area which is strongly Liberal, so will probably go for whichever party wins the most seats in Quebec. At this point its too early to tell.
15 03 24 Dr. Bear
The east side of Laval has always been a little bit kinder to the federalist parties than the central part (but not as kind as the west side of the island). Seeing that this riding has a significant non-Francophone minority, there's a good chance of a Liberal pick up. Will need to keep a close eye, to see what unfolds.

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