Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-10-11 15:52:19

Constituency Profile


Lusson, Catherine

Melchior, Patrick

Moynan, Cindy

Paine, Patrick

Paradis, Denis

Poulin, Charles

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (234/234 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Pierre Jacob


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15 10 07 JFBreton
Baisse marquée du NPD au Québec, hausse des Libéraux et du Bloc. Dans le cas de Brome-Missisquoi, ça avantagera Paradis qui se glissera entre les autres candidats. Courte victoire libérale.
15 10 02 Marco Ricci
With the NDP falling, the BQ rising, and the Liberals solidifying, this riding is now a possible Liberal win again, but further data from Quebec will be needed in the next 2 weeks before determining this.
15 09 29 Spx
Three weeks left and I think unless the NDP is picking up some percentage points again this one is probably going Liberal. So for now I will call it for the Liberals.
15 09 08 R.O.
This is a riding where the liberals are running a former mp , Denis Paradis had been mp from 1995-2006 until he lost seat to bloc Quebecois. He's ran twice since and came in second both runs . the ndp mp elected in 2011 Pierre Jacob is not running for re-election so its also an open riding. The liberals have a well know candidate but still a riding the ndp won last election so tough to say what will happen here
C'est une circonscription où les libéraux sont en cours d'exécution un ancien mp , Denis Paradis avait été mp à partir de 1995-2006 jusqu'à ce qu'il perde siège au Bloc québécois. Il a été deux fois depuis et est entré dans la deuxième fois exécute . le député néo-démocrate élu en 2011 Pierre Jacob n'est pas candidat à la réélection de sorte que sa circonscription aussi ouvert. Les libéraux ont une bien connaître le candidat mais encore une circonscription le NPD a gagné la dernière élection si difficile à dire ce qui va se passer ici
15 09 05 A.S.
The deflation of Justinmania means that what had been the Libs' lowest-hanging non-Montreal fruit is now their last desperate hope remaining. Though if it's of any compensation, as eternal-aspiring-comeback-kids in Brome-Missisquoi go, Paradis is of solider and more plausible stuff than Heward Grafftey.
15 08 30 Mr. Dave
The NDP brand has increased in support since the call of the election in rural Quebec, and even though this is an open seat, with 47-51% support according to various polling agencies, I'd be very surprised if this riding changes its political stripe.
NDP hold!
15 08 23 2015
I doubt the Liberals are going to win more than 1-2 ridings outside of Montreal-Laval. This one should be too far out of reach to win with a reinvigorated NDP the past few months.
15 08 11 J.F. Breton
Denis Paradis (PLC) tente un retour. Il jouit d'une bonne notoriété dans une circonscription avec un bon fond libéral. Je prévois une victoire serrée du PLC.
15 03 28 monkey
If the Liberals win any rural seats in Quebec, this will be the first to fall as it is fairly federalist, Denis Paradis is well liked, and has a large Anglophone population. The main problem is the northern parts are more nationalistic so if they unite heavily behind one party it still might go NDP.
15 03 21 Dr. Bear
The Liberals are reemerging as a force within their old strongholds. Couple that with long time former-Liberal MP Denis Paradis running for the Liberals and the announcement that the NDP incumbent is not running again, I'd say this is favored to return to the Liberal fold.

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