Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d’Orléans-Charlevoix

Prediction Changed
2015-10-18 00:27:10

Constituency Profile


Boucher, Sylvie

Desjardins Pelchat, Mario

Dufour, Sébastien

Kerr, Patrick

Tremblay, Jonathan

Vigneau, Jean-Roger

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 250.05%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (182/218 polls, 82.51% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Jonathan Tremblay

   (36/218 polls, 17.49% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Raymond Côté


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15 10 17 Tes
Polls in the Sageunay region and in Montreal show the CPC performing WORSE than they did in 2011 - so if the regional polls for Quebec are accurate, it looks like all of the CPC support is concentrated in Quebec City and the area south of the St. Lawrence. Looks like the CPC may be racking in massive margin victories in this area (if the polls are to be correct). For that reason I predict a CPC pick up.
15 10 09 Neal Ford
I am now comfortable enough to say this riding will be sending Sylvie Boucher back to Ottawa. Tory gains in the vote , especially in the Quebec City region spells breakthrough.
15 10 03 JFBreton
Before the last french debate on TVA, Jean-Marc Léger from Léger Marketing presented this poll for Quebec City area: Conservatives 48%, NDP 20%, Bloc 17%, Liberal 14%, Green 2%. For me, it's a gain of PCC in Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Ile-d'Orléans-Charlevoix.
15 09 25 Woodworth
Leger, EKOS, Forum and Nanos are showing CPC spike in Quebec City region (and QC overall). Boucher (she's been knocking on doors since 2012, constantly ranked highly in Best Constituency MP polls) is hard working and she won't lose this seat.
15 09 21 A.S.
Remember that it was Guimond + Marois that made the Bloc more resilient than usual here in 2011; neither are a factor now. And it does make an odd sense for the Cons to try their own feasting-off-the-Bloc tactic--esp. today, there's a certain dog-whistle commonality btw/those realms. Likelier, though, that it'll only further entrench the NDP's up-the-middle advantage. And even if she *was* in cabinet, Sylvie Boucher never really shook that feeling of being the 2006 CPC version of all those accidental 2011 Orange Crush freshmen. When it comes to turnip trucks, Quebeccers would rather have their so-called turnips fresh ;-)
15 09 17 #ABC51
The Conservatives are failing to gain traction in Quebec and just about anybody who voted BQ last time around is low-hanging fruit for the NDP.
Even if the Conservative improve their showing here, the NDP has a reservoir of voters to take from the BQ.
15 08 30 Oliver May
This should be interesting but the idea that the stump Sylvie Boucher was a good Constituency MP is laughable - she didn't even live in the constituency (in fairness she does live in this riding). Being reduced to 25% of the vote in 2011 means that she is relying on a strong national and provincial surge. Doesn't look likely at the moment. This is also a more urban riding than in 2011 which should help the NDP. If Deltell cannot win, Boucher has no chance.
15 08 28 R.O.
Sylvie Boucher is a strong candidate for the cpc and was mp for Beauport from 2006-2011. This riding has also been redistributed. Jonathan Tremblay has been mp since 2011 but didn't face Boucher in the last election. So these 2 candidates have not actually ran against each other yet. The ndp is polling high in Quebec but a lot could change by October ,I'd say riding is too close to call
Sylvie Boucher est un excellent candidat pour le CPC et a été députée de Beauport à partir de 2006-2011. Cette circonscription a également été redistribuées. Jonathan Tremblay a été députée depuis 2011 mais n'a pas confrontés à Boucher à la dernière élection. Donc ces 2 candidats n'ont pas effectivement couru contre chacun d'autres encore. Les néo-démocrates l'interrogation est élevé au Québec, mais beaucoup pourrait changer d'ici octobre ,je dirais que ma circonscription est trop proche pour appeler
15 08 25 JFBreton
Les plus récents sondages placent le NPD à plus de 40% au Québec, loin devant ses adversaires. Le plus récent CROP place même le NPD à 51% chez les francophones. Le Bloc oscille entre 15 et 20%. Hormis Deltell dans Louis-Saint-Laurent, je ne vois pas d'autres gains conservateurs prévisibles dans la région.
15 08 21 Balon
Three recent polls - CROP in Quebec, a national Abacus poll, and a Quebec-heavy Leger poll - all have the NDP at 40+ % in the province and the CPC and Bloc in the mid-teens. The CROP poll in particular has the NDP at 45% in the Quebec City region while the CPC are at 23%, LPC at 18% and Bloc at 13%. Kinda looking like a second Orange Crush.
While I assume Lebel and Bernier will win their seats for the Conservatives, with numbers like these, there is almost no chance the other ridings in this area will vote anything but NDP, Sylvie Boucher notwithstanding.
15 07 31 Woodworth
Sylvie Boucher was re-elected in 2008 because she is a good Constituency MP. In 2011 she fell to the orange wave. She is running in a new seat now and she can win if she connects with constituents.
15 07 05 NonPartisan
Former CPC MP Sylvie Boucher is running again. The strength of the Bloc will hurt the NDP, while the Liberals will be insignificant in the riding. Boucher can take it up the middle.
15 03 28 monkey
While the re-distribution makes it somewhat more favourable to he Tories as they are strong near Quebec City, I still think the best bet is an NDP win unless you get a really strong three way split on the centre-left in which case the Tories might slip up the middle and takes this.
15 03 28 Jason Z
Riding looks to be a four way race between the Liberals, Conservative, NDP and BQ. I would be surprised if the winning party even gets more than 30% of the vote. The three way progressive split should favour former CPC MP Bouchard.
15 03 24 Dr. Bear
While this is a riding that the Conservatives have identified as one where they could win, and one where former CPC MP Sylvie Boucher is running, I'm still not convinced that it will be a successful Conservative gain. While the western side of the riding may be more Quebec city-ish Conservative, the eastern part is far more separatist leaning. If the BQ rise from the ashes, then they will split the nationalist vote and the CPC will have their chance. However, if the BQ continue to languish in the polls, then nationalist voters will side with the NDP to keep the Conservatives out. I'm thinking the latter is a more likely outcome, as the voters here are clearly tired of the banal separatist debate. Otherwise, why would they have turfed their long-time MP and PQ premier, Pauline Marois?
15 03 23 JFBreton
Sylvie Boucher tente un retour pour les conservateurs qui sont en tête dans la région de Québec avec plus de 40% des voix selon les sondages. Harper le sais très bien, ayant récemment visité la région à quelques reprises. Couronne de Québec plutôt favorable aux conservateurs. Gain PCC.

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