Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-09-22 09:39:20

Constituency Profile


Ferguson, Gordon

Freeman, Mylène

Gifford, Jocelyn

Marcil, Simon

Trudel, Karl

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 2120.45%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (110/185 polls, 58.17% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Mylène Freeman

   (29/185 polls, 15.15% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Laurin Liu

   (24/185 polls, 14.04% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Charmaine Borg

   (22/185 polls, 12.63%of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Pierre Dionne Labelle


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15 09 20 A.S.
Another 'new' Quebec seat--and a little trivia: it's the current 'Oka seat'--not that that'd make much difference. A little added trivia--Mylene Freeman, the 'McGill Five' incumbent running here, was only a year old at the time of the Oka Crisis. As with so many of these boomburban 450 seats, the Bloc's by far the primary opposition force on paper--and in reality, probably destined for the same kind of oblivion as, well, Mirabel. (The airport, I mean.)
15 09 17 #ABC51
While the NDP will lose some ground to the Liberals among non-Francophone voters, all signs point to a continued collapse of the Bloc Québécois vote to the benefit of Team Mulcair. Look for the the BQ to finish with no seats on October 19.
15 09 10 Spx
Another riding where the remaining Bloc vote is probably going to fizzle away. NDP hold!
15 09 09 Dr.Bear
If the BQ were not polling at levels below what they got in 2011, I would suggest this is TCTC. They are not and are facing a potential wipe out. Mirabel will stay with the NDP at current polling numbers (threehundredeight is suggesting 54% for the NDP with 95% confidence).
15 08 29 Mr. Dave
Depending on which poll results you look at, NDP support could be anywhere from 47% to 51% in Quebec.
Ms. Freeman has not been an embarrassment to the NDP caucus, and with the decline in B.Q. support since the return of Gilles Duceppe fizzled, she will be returned as the M.P. here.
NDP hold!
15 06 09 Observer
Selon La Presse, on a des nouvelles ce matin que Gilles Duceppe sera de retour comme chef Bloquiste. Mario Beaulieu s'est rendu compte que sous son direction, le Bloc Quebecois va nulle-part et risquait d'etre éffacé du carte électorale, donc, on a arrivé a une enetente qu reverra M. Duceppe a son ancien position.
Est ce que ca changera beaucoup? Avant d'accepter, l'équipe de M. Duceppe a prs une sondage, et a découvert que Le Bloc attirera 3 fois des voix sur son directon qu'a celle de M. Beaulieu. Sans doute Il pourrait attirer de l'argent et des candidates, possiblement des vedettes de son anien équipe.
Alors je crois que le Bloc poura faire in impacte non-negligible cette élection, en reprendre des sieges en Monterégie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Mauricie, Lac St Jean et en quelques circonscriptions en Estrie.
Restez branchés.
According to La Presse, there is news today that Gilles Duceppe will be returning to the leadership of the Bloc Quebecois. Mario Beaulieu had come to terms with the fact that the party was going nowhere fast under his leadership, perhaps even looking a a complete wipeout, so they arrived at a deal that would see M. Duceppe return to his old job.
Will that change much? Before accepting, Duceppe's team commissioned a poll and found that the Bloc would attract 3 times as many votes under Duceppe than they would under M. Beaulieu. No doubt he will also bring in some much needed money, and some candidates, perhaps many from his old caucus.
Therefore I believe the Bloc could pose a threat to win seats in Montéregie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Maurice. Lac St Jean and some ridings in the Eastern Townships.
Stay tuned
15 03 28 monkey
A fairly nationalist riding so unless either the Liberals establish a strong lead in Quebec or the BQ rebounds, it should stay NDP.
15 03 28 JFBreton
Je mise sur une réélection du NPD dans cette circonscription des Laurentides. En 2011, l'adversaire était le Bloc. Je mise en 2015 sur une division du vote d'opposition.

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