Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Mount Royal

Prediction Changed
2015-03-19 18:29:34

Constituency Profile


Bossé Bélanger, Jade

Housefather, Anthony

Johnston, Diane

Landry, Timothy

Libman, Robert

Rimbao, Mario Jacinto

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 1830.47%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Mount Royal
   (187/187 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Irwin Cotler


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15 10 10 Marco Ricci
Dr. Bear is correct that when you look at the way the numbers are changing in Québec, there may have been a Conservative rise, but there has been a greater Liberal rise. The Liberals are higher than the Conservatives in the majority of Québec polls, but most importantly, it's a question of *where* the increases are coming from.
As pollster Jean-Marc Leger said yesterday, the Liberals are leading in Montreal as of October 2015, and the Conservatives are leading in the Quebec City area. Unless the Conservatives gain votes in the non-Jewish demographics in this riding, they will likely still be behind the Liberals, even if they were to get a modest rise in the Jewish community (and even there not all Jews are voting Conservative!)
The Mainstreet poll in late September had the Liberals leading in Mount Royal by 15 points, and that was *before* the latest Liberal increase.
15 10 09 Dr.Bear
Oh there it is! The silly prediction from a conservative supporter who wants this riding oh so badly that they ignore basic logic and reason, let alone provincial polls and even riding polls. So let's explain this another way...
Suppose Steve has one cookie and Justin has two cookies. If Cookie Monster were to give Steve one more cookie and gave Justin two more cookies, who would have more cookies? Answer: Justin, because he both started with more cookies and received more cookies than Steve. Now to apply this analogy to an election: change the word 'cookie' with 'vote' and 'Cookie Monster' with 'voters' and you have the current situation in Mount Royal.
As for Jewish voters who 'couldn't vote' last time: if this is anyway true, they are such a minority that they won't change much. They are many, many non-Jews in this riding who will negate any such effect (this riding is not monolithic Jewish).
15 10 09 Neal Ford
I think this one will be much closer than many think, and there is areal possibility that Robert Libman will prevail. Both are known quantities. Libman served as MNA in this area provincially, and is well known as a broadcaster, and columnist.
Housefather is also well known and liked. It could well be that the citizens of Mount Royal will vote to have the best of both worlds. Libamn in Ottawa, and Housefather staying as Mayor.
15 10 06 d
As much as the Liberals numbers may be up. The Conservatives are also way up in Quebec. Robert Libman has been working hard like nuts and that Mainstreet Poll was done on a day where many religious Jews were unable to participate in a poll and majority of the Orthodox Jews are voting Libman. I'm not saying he has it in the bag but I think given the high CPC numbers in Quebec and given that Housefather is definitely no Irwin Cotler, this could finally be the year CPC wins Mount Royal.
15 10 03 wasyl
Jewish vote will split based on those who are strident supporters of Israel and those who are driven by liberal sensibilities. Rest of riding is Liberal simply because that's the way it has always been.
15 09 24 Marco Ricci
Today's Mainstreet Poll gives Liberal Anthony Housefather a 15-point lead. This is what I suggested to Teddy Boragina below. I was keeping my mind open to changing my prediction if new data arose, but now I think we can say that unless the Liberal vote collapses in Montreal over the remaining 3 weeks, the Liberals will hold Pierre Trudeau's former seat.
15 09 25 Marco Ricci
Mainstreet Poll:
CON - 24%
NDP - 12%
15 09 25 Woodworth
Mainstreet Poll shows healthy lead for the LPC here. Housefather is safe.
15 09 24 Dr.Bear
Mainstreet Research conducted a poll in this riding. Housefather is ahead by 15 points (39% vs 24% for Libman). That's a no-brainer, easy Liberal hold (been saying this all along...)
15 09 13 Marco Ricci
Teddy Boragina, could you provide some details for us to explain why you think 'From what I can gather, the Tories will likely take this riding'?
At this point in time, there have not been any riding polls done for Mount Royal, so I'm not aware of any particular numbers showing a Conservative win here.
All the current numbers appear to point to a Liberal win (and perhaps a larger Liberal win than in 2011). The current Qu?bec polls, as well as the specific Montr?al poll earlier this month, show Liberal support up & Conservative support down relative to 2011.
While that doesn't change the Conservatives advantage with the Jewish vote, the majority of voters in this riding are NOT Jewish. There is a Francophone minority here as well as many voters of other ethnic & religious backgrounds. So if the Conservatives are dropping in Montr?al/ Qu?bec, that can have an effect across the demographics. The Conservatives need some non-Jewish support here. That's why Conservatives like Minister Steven Blaney were supporting Pascale D?ry for the nomination instead of Robert Libman. They were hoping to expand Conservative support into other demographics.
15 09 12 Jason
Liberal numbers amongst Montrealers and Anglophone are good enough for them to hold on to this seat.
Mount Royal has been on the Tory wish list for a while. For three reasons - demographics, the ability to make inroads in Montreal and the fact this used to be PET's old seat.
The Conservatives feel that they can win this riding due to the high Jewish vote. The Jewish vote is not monolithic and is still more Liberal friendly in Quebec compared to Ontario.
15 09 06 Teddy Boragina
Those who think the polls showing Anglophones turning away from the Tories in Quebec mean this is a slam-dunk for the Liberals should be aware that only 31% of Mount Royal's voters are distinctly Anglophone.
From what I can gather, the Tories will likely take this riding, even if it is their only riding in Montreal where they take over 15% of the vote.
15 09 02 Tony
Interesting to see all the Conservative predictions, I doubt they win here though they could make it interesting.
15 09 02 Marco Ricci
A new Mainstreeet/PostMedia poll shows that the Liberals are up 10 points in Montreal from 2011, while the Conservatives & BQ are down. While the Conservative decrease won't affect all ridings equally and won't necessarily hurt the CPC with Jewish voters, it may hurt them with non-Jewish voters in Mount Royal. (who comprise more than half the riding).
This may be why the 308 seat projection actually shows the Liberal chance of winning Mount Royal higher now. The lower the CPC vote goes in Montreal, the more risk they face of losing some voters in Mount Royal.
'NDP in virtual tie with Liberals on Montreal Island, Conservatives, Bloc slipping: poll'
15 09 02 Jeff S
New poll shows Conservatives dropping and Liberals rising from 2011 on Montreal Island. http://montrealgazette.com/news/national/ndp-in-virtual-tie-with-liberals-on-montreal-island-conservatives-bloc-slipping-poll That should be enough to permit the Liberals to hold this.
15 09 02 A.S.
If we go by Mainstreet's projection of Lib-NDP neck-and-neck and the Cons in single digits in Montreal, I wouldn't be surprised if Libman suffers the Anglo/Jewish version of Duceppe's projected 20% in Laurier-Ste Marie. (Too soon to tell, though.)
15 09 02 Monkey Cheese
I find it interesting to hear that the Conservatives are doing as well as 'Observer' claims. Does he or she live in the riding or have any evidence to support those claims? Mount Royal has long been a Liberal stronghold and I don't see that changing, especially during an election when the Conservatives are polling so poorly in Quebec recently. Even Conservative friendly pollster 'Mainstreet Research' has the Conservatives at 9% in Montreal. That doesn't bode well for them here.
Je trouve intéressant d'entendre ce que les conservateurs font ainsi que les réclamations «'bserver'. Est-ce qu'il ou elle vivre dans la circonscription ou avoir aucune preuve pour appuyer ces revendications? Mont-Royal a longtemps été un bastion libéral et je ne vois pas que cela change, en particulier lors d'une élection lorsque les conservateurs sont scrutin si mal au Québec récemment. Même amical sondeur conservateur 'Mainstreet Research' a les conservateurs à 9% à Montréal. Cela ne présage rien de bon pour eux ici.
15 08 26 Marco Ricci
Observer, it's puzzling to hear you say that 'droves' of people are planning to switch from Liberal to Conservative since Liberal support is up in Montréal from 2011 and Conservative support is down.
And with the CPC at risk of losing government this year, would people really vote for them here in larger numbers?
Btw, some Jews are beginning to criticize the way that Harper's right-wing policies are out of step with Jewish progressive values, and some Jews are also saying they will not vote Conservative because they are tired of being treated as one issue voters.
Here are 2 recent pieces:
1) Michael Hollander writes in The Montreal Gazette: 'As a Jew, I'm offended at being treated like a one-issue voter'
2) Ben Carniol writes in The Toronto Star: 'Stephen Harper is out of step with Jewish values'
15 08 21 Observer
I have seen the campaign the CPC is running in this riding and it is like none other. TONS of Libman signs and many many people I know who had voted Liberal last election because of their dissatisfaction with Saulie Zajdel, are voting in droves this time for the Conservatives. It won't be a walk in the park but I think the Liberals are in trouble in this riding. The CPC really want this riding and they are showing it in this campaign.
15 08 17 Marco Ricci
This riding is currently given a 77% chance of going Liberal according to Eric Grenier's Election Prediction. That doesn't necessarily take into account all the local factors on the ground and so it is possible that the Conservatives may be closer than that.
However, the new Léger poll shows the Conservatives dropping several points in Québec and the Liberals up several points. In Montréal itself, the NDP is 1st, Liberals 2nd, BQ 3rd, and Conservatives 4th. It would be interesting to see a riding poll conducted here later this year so we can get a sense of how those Montréal numbers affect this riding.
15 08 16 Mount Royal Insider
Very surprised this one is called for the Liberals at this time. The donations flowing into the Conservative Party in Mount Royal have the CPC with a presence and a ground team never before seen here. This one really is TCTC, and electionprediction would be wise to switch it. Again, this is a riding to watch.
15 05 30 Follow The Numbers
Every election cycle Conservatives love to claim that they will take Mount Royal, but it never happens. I don't think that's going to happen this year either. Look at the latest polling numbers. Conservatives are back in the mid teens in Quebec and polling aggregate threehundredeight.com has the Liberals at 54% and a 90% chance of winning. If anything, they are more likely to lose this seat to the NDP if they keep rising in the polls. When you combine that with the fact that the Conservative star candidate lost her nomination and their candidate in the last election was found guilty of fraud, I think this is going to safely remain a Liberal seat.
15 05 29 B.W.
Mount Royal could be the first riding in Montreal for the Conservatives to make a breakthrough due its pro-Israel stance that appeals to the Jewish population in the riding. While the riding is a longtime Liberal stronghold that was once represented by the late former PM Pierre Trudeau, his son Justin has taken a pro-Palestine stance that could offend members of the Jewish community since the Israelis and Palestinians have been in various conflicts for many years. The Conservatives shouldn't be counted out yet as they are expected to be in a close race against the Liberals in Mount Royal.
15 05 17 #ABC51
Bill C-51 is a game changer. The Jewish vote here that has historically gone Liberal but will continue trending to the Conservatives.
Likewise, the NDP and the Greens will reap dividends due to the idiot circular squad that is Justin Trudeau and his rightist/careerist advisors backing C-51 in spite of polls showing opposition approaching 80% among Liberal backers. This will divide the progressive vote and further and ensure that, for all the losses that they incur, the Conservatives will have won one new seat come October.
The BQ is irrelevant in this riding, and being led by a clown like Beaulieu will ensure that they are lucky to even find a candidate.
15 05 05 Socred
I wouldn't call this riding to the Liberal so easily! Mount Royal is used of having it's voice in a government in power not in opposition! I feel with the candidate that will run for the Conservatives and with Harper's huge support for Israel, alot of Liberal voters will switch coats. As well, Trudeau has been very pro Palestine and swinging toward the Islamic voters which will in turn cause many of the Jewish people to turn their vote to the conservatives! Tight race I believe but Tory win this time in the end!
15 05 04 Docere
I find it strange that posters think that Robert Libman increases the Conservative chances of an upset in Mount Royal.
The riding is 30-35% Jewish and includes more than Cote St. Luc and Hampstead. There's a good reason why the CPC preferred Pascale Dery over Libman - they hoped that in addition to retaining their support in the Jewish community she would be able to get new support in francophone and new immigrant communities too. Former Equality Party leader Libman is toxic in TMR and Snowdon.
So what is the Conservative path to victory? A lot of the NDP vote from last time is likely to go Liberal this time. Libman can't win with just CSL and the Liberals are running the popular mayor of CSL - surely Housefather will be competitive there.
If people seriously think that Libman will win the riding based on winning 100% of the Jewish vote, they are delusional.
15 05 02 Marco Ricci
Observer, your post sounds somewhat biased. Justin Trudeau hasn't 'pandered' to Islamic communities. That sounds like a CPC talking point. Harper & Jason Kenney have engaged in similar outreach to many ethnic groups. Some would argue that Harper has 'pandered' to the Jewish community.
It's unfortunate that this type of rhetoric has now entered into our elections. The Liberal Party, and the Trudeau family in particular, has a long connection with the Jewish community. It was Pierre Trudeau who appointed the first Jewish cabinet minister, Herb Gray, and who also appointed the first Jewish Supreme Court Justice, Bora Laskin. The Conservatives have made a recent effort to appeal to the Jewish community, but the Liberal roots are stronger.
It's also interesting that Conservative organizers are now claiming that Robert Libman is a stronger candidate to win the riding than Pascale Dery would have been. That's certainly possible, as Libman does have more political experience than Dery, as I said below. But as Quebec analyst Jean Lapierre says, Pascale Dery had the CPC establishment support and was being promoted as a star candidate by CPC ministers such as Steven Blaney who appeared with her this Spring. So if Libman is the strongest candidate, why was the CPC trying to defeat him with Dery?
Libman also has some baggage from being on the wrong side of the demerger issue and is considered more controversial by Francophone voters because of his language views. (There are some Francophones in this riding).
Here is an interesting piece by Don MacPherson in The Gazette this weekend which looks at the issues in Mount Royal:
15 04 27 Observer
Well I have one Conservative organizer and one NDP organizer telling me that with Robert Libman winning the nomination, that this will be the year that Fortress Mount-Royal falls.
Both cited the affinity developing over the last few years between the Jewish community and the Harper Tories, especially given his unwavering support for Israel.
Now contrast that to Justin Trudeau and his pandering to Islamic communities, and some of the strongly anti-Israel statements made by brother Sacha.
It looks as if Pierre Trudeau's old stronghold may fall during the tenure of the son, on account of the sons.
15 04 27 Marco Ricci
Robert Libman won the CPC nomination tonight over Pascale Dery in what the media are considering an upset because Dery had the support of CPC ministers and was being promoted as a star candidate.
It's hard to know whether this will be a good or bad thing for the Conservatives. On the one hand it is kind of an embarrassment that their star candidate lost and that it will be more difficult to promote Libman to Francophones. On the other hand, Libman is more experienced and has more name recognition from his prior years in politics.
15 04 26 Mount Royal Insider
Don't overestimate Cote St. Luc's influence on this election. As someone with intimate knowledge of this riding, it has become clear that the Cote des Neiges and TMR portions of this riding carry a lot of weight, and the winner will need widespread support to carry it.
Conservatives held their nomination meeting today and will be represented by former Equality Party leader (and former CSL mayor) Robert Libman.
This will be a tough battle for both candidates. Conservatives can steal, if they can move enough people away from their traditional, long-time, almost automatic Liberal vote.
Riding to watch.
15 04 26 Df
Now that Robert Libman is the candidate for the Conservative party I do believe he can take the seat
15 04 26 Marco Ricci
Conservative nomination update: Pundit's Guide reports that Neil Drabkin has withdrawn from the race so the only 2 CPC candidates left now are Pascale Déry & Robert Libman.
Neil Drabkin endorsed Pascale Déry after he withdrew, so it will be interesting to see who the winner is on April 26.
15 04 26 Docere
I think the Liberals should have less trouble holding Mount Royal than in 2011. The Conservatives had just about the 'perfect storm' in 2011 and they still couldn't take it. Anthony Housefather is a top tier candidate for the Liberals. As previously noted, the Conservatives have likely maxed out their support in the Jewish community, the NDP isn't likely to do as well this time and their vote very well may collapse and go mostly Liberal, the CPC brand will likely be tainted by Saulie Zajdel's arrest and a revitalized LPC will win back votes that defected to both the Conservatives and NDP in 2011. At best the Tories hold their vote share, but I think the Liberals should win by at least a 10 point margin.
15 04 21 Stevo
With the Conservatives having breached Fortress 416 in 2011, is it now time to punch a hole in Fortress 514? Hard to see where they can grow their support here considering their strength in the Jewish community would have been fully tapped by 2011. Their best hope for victory here and elsewhere on the island would be a vote split which isn't all that unlikely considering the two Montreal-based leaders of the Liberals and the NDP.
15 04 05 Marco Ricci
Conservative nomination update: Pundit's Guide reports that Beryl Wajsman has withdrawn from the race and that Neil Drabkin has entered. So the 3 CPC candidates are now Pascale Déry, Robert Libman & Neil Drabkin, and it is scheduled for April 26.
It will be interesting to see where Wajsman's support goes now that he has withdrawn, and how Drabkin factors into the Déry vs. Libman battle.
15 04 02 Observer
Pascale Dery is francophone, but she is Jewish, and Harper's stand with Israel and Trudeau's courting of Muslims is going to have an effect. Whether it will be enough to flip this seat remains to be seen.
15 03 31 Marco Ricci
This seat is now listed on the main page as one of the most posted about ridings on EPP. Since we are going to have many posts about this riding this year, here are a few points raised by others below that would be good to know more about:
1. A couple posters have said Saulie Zajdel wasn't that popular, so the next Conservative candidate will do better. Is there any evidence to back this up? This statement seems at odds with what the press reported in 2011. Zajdel was considered fairly well-known as a former City Councillor who had been elected several times. And according to Professor Andrew Cohen of Carleton University who wrote a column on Saulie Zajdel after the 2011 election, Zajdel was also helped by the fact that he was an Orthodox Jew.
2. It has also been said below that Conservatives will get more Jewish votes after Cotler retires because Cotler was pro-Israel. Well, as Cotler said last year to the press, he still lost the Jewish vote. So despite being pro-Israel, it didn't appear to give Cotler much of an advantage. And besides, aren't all the candidates who run here going to be pro-Israel? Isn't Anthony Housefather, the Mayor of Cote St. Luc, pro-Israel?
3. Another poster said that Pascale Déry 'has made inroads with ethnic communities'. She only officially got into the race in January 2015, according to the press, so has she really had time to make inroads into a riding where she just started campaigning 2 months ago? And at this point in time, while the Conservative brass may favour her, she faces a competitive race with Robert Libman who was in the race first and has a head start. So we'll have to wait & see who the Conservative nominee is. (Maybe there will be a split and Beryl Wajsman will come up the middle!) The Conservative nomination is rumoured to be happening in late April, but it does not appear to have been officially announced yet. Does the delay in the nomination mean that CPC brass aren't confident of Pascale Déry's chances yet?
15 03 30 Jason Z
Pascale Dery seems to be the CPC brass' favoured nomination candidate. She is francophone, while the riding is mostly anglophone, which may play a wild card in this race. She has made inroads with ethnic communities in the riding, which the previous CPC candidates failed to do, focusing mostly on the Jewish vote. With Cotler out, this could be the best shot the CPC have at gaining a seat on the Island of Montreal.
15 03 30 z
To those wondering how the Conservatives can gain more votes within the Jewish community regarding Israel support from Harper this time - it's simple.
Irwin Cotler was very very popular amongst the traditional Liberal voting Jews. Additionally, the CPC candidate in 2011 was very unpopular. Yet he still came close of unseating Cotler. This time around, Cotler isn't running, and neither is Saulie Zajdel. If Robert Libman gets the nod for the CPC, he is popular and can sway those who stayed Liberal last time to the Conservatives. It's definitely not a slam dunk but it will be very close. I'll put CPC pick up for now but I truly would say it's TCTC
15 03 29 Carleton Student
I don't want to call this one right up to election day, but keep in mind that voters who think of Israel behind the voting screen did not necessarily vote CPC here as they do in the Greater Toronto Area. Cotler is a champion of the Pro Israel community in Canada, and his days as the liberal candidate are over. The CPC have votes to pick up on the issue.
15 03 28 monkey
If the Tories were to win a riding on the Island of Montreal, this is their best shot, but considering outside the heavily Jewish areas, they did quite poorly last time around and I don't see any reason that will change. The Tories by 2011 had already established themselves as very pro-Israel so I cannot see them gaining anymore amongst the Jewish community then they already have.
15 03 27 Dr. Bear
I think Marco Ricci's analysis was quite accurate, however I have a few additional points to make on his analysis. My comments also reflect on a few things mentioned by Mrz and Brian A (And just as an FYI, I was born and raised just south of the riding border. Most of my family still lives there. I have a good sense of what's happening in this part of Montreal).
1. Everyone seems to forget that this riding is not only Cote St Luc. It is comprised of four entities: Cote st Luc, Hampstead, Cote des Neiges and Town of Mount Royal. After the last election, pundit's guide had a map showing how the riding voted and the results were telling; Hampstead solid conservative, Cote St Luc mostly conservative, Cote des Neiges mix of Liberal and NDP, Town of Mount Royal solid Liberal. Why the difference? Because while Hampstead and Cote St Luc are predominantly Jewish, TMR is an equal mix of English and French and over 70% Christian. Cote des Neiges is less affluent than the other three cities and is a huge mix of ethnicities. It was TMR and CdN that really kept this in the Liberal column.
2. Jack Layton and the NDP spit in the face of non-Francophone Quebecers with the Sherbrooke declaration and support of the language laws (wanting to apply bill 101 to the federal civil service). At that point, NDP support plummeted amongst non-Francophones and has not recovered (very doubtful it will now). The patchwork that was CdN in '11 will become solid red in '15 as the 'ethnic' communities return to their traditional liberal home. Any meager support the NDP had in the other three cities will also flip Liberal.
With these two points (and ones made by Marco Ricci), this would be enough to secure a much larger win than in 2011. But wait, there's more...
3. As said, the current mayor of Cote St Luc is the Liberal candidate and the CPC have not chosen their candidate yet. There are four people vying for this spot; two of whom I am unfamiliar with (Pascale Dery and Niel Drabkin). The other two are former mayor and former leader/MNA for the Equality Party, Robert Libman and Beryl Wajsman, editor of the local newspaper The Suburban. Of the four, I think Libman will be given the nod but I'm not discounting Wajsman. While mayor and MNA, Libman was well respected and came across as a statesman. However his recent rhetoric has been rather boorish and makes him look like a Harper-stooge. Wajsman, on the other hand, has appeared classier. Case in point, when Housefather won the nomination, Wajsman and Dery called to congratulate him. Libman publicly told him to step down as mayor. Real smooth there Robert. It could have waited, instead he came off as a jerk.
4. The last guy who ran for the CPC was arrested by the Quebec anti corruption squad and has five charges against him from his time in city council. Now add other misdeeds by the likes of Del Mastro, Brazeau, Wallin and Duffy (where the trial will be front and center oh so soon) and you can see how the CPC brand will be tarnished.
5. Voter remorse. The rhetoric from many in Montreal is of voter remorse. Voters who normally vote Liberal flirted with the CPC or NDP and they ended dissatisfied. They wanted to send a message. They certainly did. Now they're returning to their roots.
6. Conservative record. To win this seat, they need to earn new votes and hold on to their old ones. A hard task for an incumbent party in a riding that is usually hostile to them. A star candidate works...unless the other guy is a star candidate (neutralizes any Robert Libman effect). If the CPC keep hammering on about Israel, the CPC will not gain any new support. For voters who forgot that this is Canada and not Israel, and made it the ballot box issue, they would have already voted CPC. Meanwhile, you just alienate voters in TMR and CdN whose support the CPC needs (they have little to no interest in this issue, not to mention the Arab/Muslum community in CdN who'll be hostile on this issue).
Bottom line, there will be lots of huffing and puffing about this riding. The media will jabber on about this being one to watch. Unfortunately for the CPC it'll be a waste of time and resources unless they become more amicable to non-Francophone Quebec voters as a whole, and not just to the Jewish voters. If and when that happens, other west-end Montreal ridings will come into play as well. Until then: Liberal Hold.
15 03 25 Marco Ricci
I think for now, a Liberal hold is the most likely outcome for this riding. Obviously the Conservatives have to be considered competitive based on their strong 2nd place showing in 2011, but it's possible that may have been their best chance to win this riding.
1) The Liberals are now polling at twice the level of support under Justin Trudeau in Québec that they received under Ignatieff in May 2011.
2) The Liberals have a high-profile candidate in Mayor Anthony Housefather. He is a several-term Mayor and is probably more competitive at winning campaigns on the ground than Irwin Cotler. While Irwin Cotler was well-respected as an international law professor, even his own staff admitted he didn't really like the rough & tumble world of campaigning. Housefather is probably more used to the ground wars that go on during elections.
3) The Conservatives do have several decent candidates running for the nomination, but they haven't picked their nominee yet and the person isn't expected to be chosen until late April. So it's unknown whether the candidate will be Pascale Déry, Robert Libman or Beryl Wajsman. This has given Anthony Housefather a head start of several months. It also risks creating some division among the Conservatives if the nomination becomes too divisive.
4) The NDP vote is not likely to be as high in Mount Royal in 2015. The NDP had a strong candidate in 2011, Jeff Itcush, who was well-known in the Jewish community as a teacher & activist, and he also benefited from the Layton Wave. What got overlooked in the Liberal vs. Conservative contest in 2011 was that the NDP vote went up by more than the Conservative vote (+10 NDP vs. +8 CPC). The NDP candidate this year, Mario Rimbao, is not as well-known in the Jewish community, and may not get an Orange Wave, either. Some of that NDP vote could return to the Liberals in 2015.
5) One could add a final factor, which is that Justin Trudeau will presumably take a personal interest in this riding and will want to make sure his father's old riding stays Liberal. Now that he is leader he will probably allocate it a larger team of workers & better ground organization than it had in 2011 under Ignatieff.
15 03 24 JC
The Conservatives would love to have this riding, but they won't get it. The Liberal candidate is a popular mayor of Cote St Luc, I will believe a Tory victory when I see it with my own eyes.
15 03 22 Mrz
If the Conservatives put up a really good candidate such as Robert Libman, this riding could finally go to the CPC. The lack of Irwin Cotler running and the large Jewish population who almost sent Saulie Zajdel to Ottawa last election when he wasn't that popular at all could be the determining factor.
15 03 21 Brian A
I was born and raised in Mount Royal back when Trudeau's dad was the MP. This riding has always been a snooze-fest - everybody knew the Liberal candidate would win, so people bet by how much they would win.
But times have changed. This riding has the second-largest segment of Jewish voters in Canada - the largest can be found in Thornhill (ON) and guess which party holds that seat now...
Harper's steadfast, unshakeable pro-Israel agenda is what will turn this seat from a Liberal lock to TCTC. I'm going to be brave and say that this seat will have a Conservative MP for the first time since before WWII.
15 03 18 JFBreton
Lutte intéressante ici. Je continue à croire que les Libéraux ont un avantage dans ce château-fort, mais les Conservateurs entendent y mettre le paquet avec une candidate vedette, Pascale Déry, journaliste, 38 ans, mère de deux jeunes enfants. Elle parle français, anglais et espagnol. Elle sera au centre de l'attention médiatique à Montréal. Trop tôt pour prédire un gagnant.

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