Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie

Prediction Changed
2015-03-19 18:29:34

Constituency Profile


Aglat, Laurent

André, Claude

Boulerice, Alexandre

Chénier, Stéphane

d'Entremont, Peter

Dohan, Jeremy

Medawar, Nadine

Muldeen, Sameer

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 5581.03%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie
   (232/234 polls, 99.55% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Alexandre Boulerice

   (2/234 polls, 0.45% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Thomas Mulcair


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15 10 13 Teddy Boragina
I admit I was wrong in calling this riding 'Federalist'. it is not 'Federalist'
What I was clumsily trying to say is this is 'A left-wing riding' and not 'A separatist riding that happens to be left-wing'
15 09 16 Dr.Bear
@Teddy: I have to agree with spx re: this riding being federalist-socialist. If that were true, then the this would not be a PQ stronghold provincially. Lisee held this for the PQ in the 2014 disaster for the PQ. It also has been PQ for as long as I can r
15 09 15 A.S.
Given the powerhouse Boulerice is, the fact that the Bloc still managed a third of the vote in 2011 now looks like *really* ancient electoral history--wouldn't be too surprised if this time, no non-NDP option gets above 20%, not even the Bloc.
15 09 13 Spx
@ Teddy - I am not so sure about your federalist analyses of Rosemont, it is indeed a NDP fit but Bigras used to win this riding for the Bloc with an even higher margin than Gilles Duceppe in neighbouring Laurier-Sainte-Marie, so I'd say it's quite the se
15 09 08 Teddy Boragina
Last election, and even, to a degree, in this election, we have two things that skew results. First, is an allstar NDP candidate running in Outremont, and second, is extreme weakness in the separatist vote, which shows in Laurier.
Taking that into account, you can start to see that Rosemont is in fact the heart of NDP support in the province. Unlike the Seppie-Lefties in Laurier, or the Leader-Lefties in Outremont, people who vote NDP here do so because they are both federalist and socialist.
Less of a prediction for this election and more of a comment intended to last for future elections; this is the most NDP part of the province, and especially the most NDP part of Montreal.
15 09 02 Tony
NDP hold, people are right; The NDP form government Boulerice will be a minister.
15 08 21 Marco Ricci
The Conservatives have removed their candidate, Gilles Guibord, from this riding after sexist comments he made about women surfaced on social media.
15 08 21 Monkey Cheese
Gilles Guibord, the Conservative candidate for this riding, was fired after sexist and racist statements on his blog resurfaced. The Conservatives had no chance anyway in this riding, but this little scandal should help ensure that they end up in forth place. This riding handily voted NDP last time and with the polls showing an even stronger lead in Quebec for them, there is no way they are losing here.
Gilles Guibord, le candidat conservateur dans cette circonscription, a été congédié après des déclarations sexistes et racistes sur son blog refait surface. Les conservateurs avaient aucune chance de toute façon dans cette circonscription, mais ce petit scandale devrait aider à assurer qu'ils finissent dans quatrième rang. Cette circonscription haut la main voté NPD dernière fois et avec les sondages montrant une avance encore plus forte au Québec pour eux, il n'y a aucune façon dont ils sont en train de perdre ici.
15 07 16 Dr Bear
This riding is a perfect fit for the NDP. Not to mention that the MP is something of a star in caucus. I could see him as a cabinet minister in a hypothetical NDP government. Easy NDP hold.
15 03 23 B.W.
With Alexandre Boulerice becoming one of the prominent and outspoken Quebec NDP MPs in and outside the House of Commons, this riding is going to stay NDP.
15 03 18 JFBreton
Outre Mulcair, Alexandre Boulerice est sans doute le député néo-démocrate le plus connu sur l'ile de Montréal. Présence médiatique soutenue, assurance et connaissance de ses dossiers. Il pourra en outre bénéficier de certains réseaux de militants de gauche de Montréal.

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