Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-10-17 01:16:47

Constituency Profile


Bédard, Jean-Paul

Carignan Deschamps, Sacki

Champagne, François-Philippe

Grenier, Jacques

Toupin, Martial

Tremblay, Jean-Yves

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 890.16%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (245/278 polls, 87.01% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Lise St-Denis

   (33/278 polls, 12.99% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Robert Aubin


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15 09 30 R.O.
This riding voted ndp in 2011 but mp Lise St Denis went on to join liberals and has since retired. This riding has an odd history as it was liberal when Jean Chretien mp but then went bloc Quebecois. Being open with no incumbent it could be a riding that is more competitive now that ndp down in Quebec polls ? abacus data poll 30 ndp , 24 lib ,21 cpc , 20 bloc and ipsos 34 ndp , 24 lib , 21 cpc , 18 bloc .most candidates are also new other than Jacques Grenier who ran for conservatives in 2011.
Cette circonscription ont voté pour les néo-démocrates en 2011 mais mp Lise St Denis a rejoint libéraux et a depuis pris sa retraite. Cette circonscription a une étrange histoire tel qu'il a été libéral lorsque Jean Chretien mp mais ensuite bloc québécois. Étant ouvert avec aucun titulaire il pourrait être une circonscription qui n'est plus compétitive aujourd'hui que le NPD au Québec sondages - données d'Abacus sondage 30 néo-démocrates , 24 lib ,21 CPC , 20 bloc et Ipsos 34 néo-démocrates , 24 lib , 21 CPC , 18 bloc .la plupart des candidats sont également nouveaux autres que Jacques Grenier qui ont couru pour les conservateurs en 2011.
15 09 22 A.S.
Deja vu in the form of Lise St-Denis: the only sitting Liberal in all of Franco-Quebec, just like back in the Chretien years ;-) Of course, that was her decision, not the voters'; but still, this might be a rather 'fragmented' race in the making given how the present Grit candidate's enjoying an apparent Chretien boost, and how there's been surprising Conservative rigour here post-Chretien (and 2011's candidate's running again) And...the Bloc's the Bloc; what can one say. For all we know, such fragmentation might lead to a dyslexic result relative to the Chretien years, i.e. St Maurice-Champlain as one of the handful of *Bloc* seats remaining...
15 09 04 Tony
I think Jean Yves Tremblay is running here for the NDP, think this controversy over their former candidate may hurt them and the Bloc will win this seat.
15 08 16 Marco Ricci
This riding should theoretically go NDP in this election, but the NDP is off to a rough start.
Ex-journalist Dominique Trottier was rejected as a candidate this month by the NDP and now he alleges that they are discriminating against him because of a mental health condition:
It's unknown at this time who the NDP candidate will be, but the nomination meeting is expected in late August.
Liberal candidate François-Philippe Champagne has been fairly visible so far and recently got Prime Minister Chrétien to appear with him, but he will need the Liberal numbers to rise in Francophone Québec if he is to benefit from the late NDP start here.
15 08 05 Dr. Bear
Looking more and more like the NDP is solidifying its hold on rural Quebec. The return of Duceppe hasn't rallied BQ support. That can easily change, however if the NDP is looking like it can form government, watch rural Quebec going en-mass to team orange once again.
15 07 05 #ABC51
Unlike the turncoat incumbent, the people of this riding will not be bribed with Chretien adscam money to abandon the NDP. Mulcair is just too popular in Quebec and with the NDP poised to make a breakthrough in English Canada, the people are going to want to be part of the winning team, just as they were when they rejected the BQ for Chretien's pork.
15 04 06 Marco Ricci
This riding, like most others in Québec, elected an NDP MP in 2011. But then Lise St. Denis left the NDP and joined the Liberals. She is not running again. So there is no incumbent here. Is there any way to know whether this helps the Liberals or the NDP?
The Liberals did nominate a decent candidate here last year, François-Philippe Champagne, who has been campaigning and staying fairly visible. Meanwhile the NDP does not have a candidate yet.
I would assume the NDP still have an edge here, but it depends on whether Justin Trudeau can gain ground in this region of Québec (and perhaps try to get Jéan Chrétien to put in an appearance?)
15 03 28 monkey
As a rural fairly nationalist riding, I would give the NDP the best chance, but any of the four parties could potentially win here. The Liberals would need to win big in Quebec to take this. They only won here in the 90s as it was Jean Chretien's riding who PM and even his wins weren't that big. If the BQ makes a strong rebound this is possible but not likely. While a Tory win seems unlikely, if they are polling at around 25% provincewide and have the right splits they could slip up the middle, but the odds of this are fairly low but not impossible.
15 03 28 JFBreton
Lutte très intéressante à trois ici (PLC, PCC et NPD), voire à quatre, même si je penche pour une courte victoire libérale. Trop tôt pour dégager une tendance. TCTC!

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