Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2011


La prévision a changé
2009-09-03 16:35:00

Profil de circonscription


Audette, Pierre

Grenier, Jacques

Laforest, Jean-Yves

St-Denis, Lise

Tousignant, Yves

Jean-Yves Laforest

prévision historiques

  • 2008 prévision
  • 2006 prévision
  • 2004 prévision
  • 2000 prévision
  • abitibi-baie-james-nunavik (4/224 Polls)
  • champlain (97/192 Polls)
  • saint-maurice (135/182 Polls)
  • Référence:

  • Pundits’ Guide


    Nous n'aimons pas des films publicitaires non plus, mais quelqu'un doivent payer le loyer. Remplacez-l'avec votre annonce de campagne ! Voir les détails de patronage.

    11 04 30 SouthpawPundit
    Nobody's ever accused Socreds of being especially bright, I see. :-)
    BQ victory. Even Jean Chretien had a hard time beating the separatists in this riding, so I don't see the NDP being strong enough on the ground to pull things out here.
    11 04 29 Stéphane Gaudet
    Je ne pense pas que ce comté soit comme Trois-Rivières, où il semble y avoir un candidat NPD d'envergure. Le journal Le Nouvelliste a souligné que la candidate néo-démocrate Lise St-Denis était introuvable, une ‘candidate fantôme’ comme dans Berthier-Maskinongé, où le Bloc semble en voie de gagner. Je crois donc que le Bloc gagnera aussi dans St-Maurice-Champlain.
    11 04 25 Cade Suffolk
    The last time the NDP appeared to be catching on in Quebec was 1988. Then as now they were gaining strength in Montreal, but they also polled very well out in the Credetiste hinterland. This may be simply that the Credetiste voters became confused after the party they had supported for decades failed to field candidates after becoming roadkill to the 1984 Mulroney landslide. Nobody seems sure where in Quebec the NDP votes will go, so I'll suggest they may go here, in the traditional heart of funny-money country. Consider this, Saint Maurice went from Credetiste when Dief was the PM of English Canada,to Liberal during the Pearson-Trudeau years, to Mulroney in 1988, back to the Liberals and then to the Bloc. Saint Maurice likes to follow the trends.
    11 04 02 Stephane
    Tory are counting on municipal counsellor Jacques Grenier, a former police officer, and he make cause a surprise. Bloc MP Laforest is considered as being too low profile. Liberals will fight for the third place with the NDP.
    11 04 01 Tony Ducey
    Chretien's old riding. This seems pretty much entrenced with the Bloc and Jean Yves Laforest who seems to be an effective MP. The Bloc holds this.
    11 03 28 M.Lunn
    Ever since Chretien departed, this has gone solidly Bloc and in fact it would probably go Tory before it would go Liberal but neither stands a chance this time around.
    10 01 24 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Another bloc hold but...
    Interesting to note that the BQ numbers seem to be about as high as when Chretien was in power (except in the '04 election during the height of the sponsorship scandle where the BQ got a 5K vote bump up). Look at the numbers and you'll see that the federalist vote is split and wavers with the ebb and flow of popular support for the Torys and Grits in Quebec. Should one party or the other become particularly focused on Quebec, they could eke out a victory. Not this time around but in the future they should focus on this one.
    09 09 02 JF Breton
    Les cicatrices de l'ère Chrétien sont-elles toujours présentes? Quoi qu'il en soit, lors des élections de 2008, forte division du vote entre libéraux et conservateurs, ce qui a procuré une majorité de 9000 voix au Bloc. À défaut d'être une circonscription ciblée par les libéraux, victoire bloquiste.

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