Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-07-15 15:32:23

Constituency Profile


Boudreau, Marc

François, Vincent

Kaszel, Jennifer

Nicholls, Jamie

Schiefke, Peter

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (212/212 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Jamie Nicholls


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15 10 09 observer
This may be one of the more interesting ridings to watch on election night.. My last coment here indicated that I thought the odds were in favour of Nicholls holding on for the NDP, the changed dynamic has required me to update: The last riding polling I saw, over 2 weeks old, had the Tories, Bloc and Liberals all around the 20% mark, with Nichlls at 40 before the drop began for his party. Depending on IF and HOW the NDP vote breaks, any one of the four could walk away with the prize. in the past 25 years, Vaudreuil has elected Tories (Pierre H. Cadieux), Liberals (Nick Discepola) , Bloquistes (Meili Faille) and now the New Democrat Nicholls.
This one's looking like a complete crapshoot right now, 10 days out.
15 10 06 Teddy Boragina
The Tories are trending up in Quebec, and are using a strategy (IE Niquab) before (IE Values Charter). While not exactly the same, one thing that they do have in common is geography, these ideals are more popular - comparatively - in the corona than they are in the rest of Quebec.
This is the most winnable riding for the Tories in the Corona. As such, if the trend continues, and the Tories are able to snatch away a riding in the area, this will be the one.
15 09 21 A.S.
Fittingly enough, the NDP represents Jack Layton's childhood home (Hudson); and with the Bloc's strongest polls distributed away, they pose no threat whatsoever. Still, at least in the event that Mulcair tokenly falters in Quebec, I'm ambivalent about the NDP's reelection chances here; Greater Montreal exurbs and the umbilical connection to Ontario makes for an *awful* lot of Anglo-Federalism (including, of course, Hudson), though the degree of that was camoflauged in 2011 by the Con-Lib split (with Cons on top, no less). So, be prepared for a greater anti-NDP swing than normal; and if that galvanizes under the Liberal banner, don't say I didn't warn you...
15 07 17 Neal Ford
At the moment, I give Nicholls the advantage here (as much as it pains me to do so) depending on who the Bloc Candidate is. If Meili Faille runs again for the Bloc, we have a TCTC. Otherwise, this one looks like an NDP hold.
15 03 26 B.W.
The reason why voters in the riding of Vaudreuil-Soulanges voted for the Bloc was not just for the personal appeal of Melli Faille, but it was due to the fact that the Liberals were in the midst of the sponsorship scandal that affected some Liberal ridings in Quebec. This riding is TCTC since it is expected to battle between the Liberals who are courting the anglophone and federalist vote, and NDP who are courting the Quebec nationalist and francophone vote.
15 03 24 Dr. Bear
This riding was never a BQ stronghold, rather Meile Faille's hard work and personal appeal kept this in the Bloc fold during the 2000's. Now this former Liberal stronghold (they voted LPC in every election from '63 to '04, except in the Mulroney years) is on the Grit's radar (or at least it should be, if it's not) and the NDP will have a fight on their hands. That said, I think the separatists crowd will vote NDP to keep the Liberals out. Sorta like how Mulcair won his riding early on. As an aside, we should also not totally discount the CPC either. If they gain significant support in Quebec, they may become real contenders. They're certainly not there yet.

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