Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte


Prediction Changed
2015-03-25 21:22:58
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Faerber, Ram

Lancaster, Marty

Nuttall, Alex

Roskam, Darren

Tamblyn, Brian

White, Ellen


Population/populations
(2011 census)

97876


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

2447754.55%
898320.02%
760116.94%
27346.09%
Other 10822.41%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant


   Barrie
   (146/212 polls, 68.66% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Patrick Brown
15671
6454
5235
1841
Other151


   Simcoe-Grey
   (37/212 polls, 18.62% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Hon. K. Kellie Leitch
5020
1554
1207
424
Other909


   Simcoe North
   (29/212 polls, 12.72% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Bruce Stanton
3786
975
1159
469
Other22



 


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15 09 16 R.O.
24.146.23.226
This riding has been redistributed significantly since the last election . So even though city of barrie has grown and become more urban you have a riding that is more rural than before. Seems to be more of a race between conservatives and liberals from what I've seen, although ndp might do better than before. Brian Tamblyn is a bit higher profile of a candidate than you'd expect liberals to run here but its still more likely this area stays conservative even without Patrick Brown as a candidate . conservatives have a new candidate Alex Nuttall who had been a city councillor in barrie .
15 09 15 Springwater resident
66.159.118.234
It is hard to predict this riding. The Liberal candidate but has not ventured outside Barrie to campaign or put up signs. The Conservatives have owned the area for years, but even true blue conservatives are looking for a change. Some are looking at the Green party and others the NDP.
15 07 30 A.S.
99.233.125.239
The less Con of the Barrie seats, thanks to its containing the bulk of Old Barrie with its built-in 'moderation'...yet oddly more on behalf of the Liberals; the notional 2011 NDP share's actually a smidgen less than that in Barrie-Innisfil. (Maybe Lib-friendly 'outer stuff' like Midhurst or the Oro-Medonte resortburbs play a part in this.) Since that dynamic hints at a split, safe money'd have BSOM staying CPC (at least for now). And by way of aside, providing he gets byelected to Queen's Park it's a fair bet that this will be where PC leader Patrick Brown will run come next provincial election, i.e. the heart of his former federal seat combined with the best parts of his prospective provincial seat. So, expect assistance from *that* end.
15 03 28 monkey
174.114.31.13
Of the two Barrie ridings, this is probably the more favourable one for the Liberals, but unless the Tories do something really stupid they should hold this. One Liberal even admitted to me provincially that the Liberals only picked this up do to Hudak's stupid promise to fire 100,000 civil servants.
15 03 24 JC
69.165.234.184
This is a little less Conservative then Barrie Innisfil but unless the liberals are leading by 7 points of more near the end of the campaign this is going to stay Blue.



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