Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Brampton Centre

Prediction Changed
2015-10-19 01:29:56

Constituency Profile


Bottcher, Saul Marquard T.

Chilelli, Frank

Gosal, Bal

Keenan, Rosemary

Sangha, Ramesh

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 2050.59%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (93/198 polls, 49.07% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Parm Gill

   (90/198 polls, 44.99% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Bal Gosal

   Mississauga-Brampton South
   (13/198 polls, 5.95% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Eve Adams


Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

15 10 18 JC
How can you call this anything but Liberal when the Tories are in the low 30's in the province and the Liberals are at 43%?
15 10 16 South Islander
Gosal volunteers get caught breaking the law three days before election day in a dead heat race. That should settle it.
15 10 16 Monkey Cheese
The Liberals are surging in Ontario and Bal Gosal is now facing controversy after members of his campaign team were filmed kicking down other parties' signs. These kind of dirty tricks won't win him any votes and will likely bring more of those crucial swing voters over to the Liberals. This should be a Liberal win, although it'll likely be one of the closest ones in the Toronto region.
15 10 13 SC
Mainstreet poll for the Friends of Canadian Broadcasting finds the Liberals and Tories 36/36 among all voters, and 41/40 among decided voters. 11% undecided.
15 10 14 Jeff S
Changing my prediction. TCTC.
15 10 13 South Islander
Mainstreet poll taken October 8 shows a dead heat. Liberal momentum since October 8 would probably mean that they are ahead by now, but this should at least be changed back to TCTC.
15 10 13 JC
The liberals are polling at 43 percent in Ontario, no way the Tories hold this.
15 10 05 Jeff S
Forum poll has CPC up 39-32 over the LPC, with the NDP at 25. Unless there's a large strategic voting, looks like this one with stay CPC.
15 09 12 Jason
Liberal pick up. Polls consistently show that the Conservatives have lost most if not all of their 2011 gains in the GTA.
Gosal may be a minister, but he is one of the lowest ranking ministers in the cabinet. He got elected with a tide and will be turfed with another tide.
15 09 07 Tony Ducey
Bal Gosal's a minister, I think he'll hold on.
15 08 25 CGD
Unless something dramatic happens, the Conservatives are going to lose 10-15% of the support they had in Ontario in 2011. That means ridings like this one that they took from the Liberals by a hair will go Liberal this time. Liberals are lined up to gain in Ontario overall, this will be a pick up for them barring major changes in Ontario polls. Especially in the 905.
15 08 26 George
I would not yet call this for the Tories. I agree if an election was held today, the Tories would probably hold this seat, but only by 2 points or so. However, they need to improve the effectiveness of their campaigns to gain any good success.
15 07 13 seasaw
First off A.S is right about the deceptive name of this riding. For the time being I would give Gosal the edge here. I don't know if ridings in Brampton and Mississauga are bellweathers or hard to obtain, easy to maintain ridings. If it's the former, we have to wait and see what transpires before making an accurate prediction. If the latter, then it's definately a Tory ridind. You see back in '93, even when polls showed a Liberal victory, the former PC party was still competetive and looked liked would take some of them until a couple of things transpired, one was that commercial the other was a series of blunders committed by the then PM. It should also be noted that these ridings were the last to change hands when the CPC started winning elections. Also, in the provincial front, most of these were ridings that ensured a PC minority in '85, and after turning Liberal in '87, they didn't go NDP in '90, and then changed hands in '03, most of them were very close and they've stayed Liberal ever since.
15 06 27 A.S.
A deceptively named riding, as it contains virtually nothing but NE-edge scrapings of Old Brampton; 'Bramalea Centre' would be the more appropriate label, as what *really* defines the seat is the heart of the GTA's ultimate 60s/70s satellite suburb--basically, what we now have is a 905 version of the UK's longtime-political-belwether 'New Town constituencies'. Which, in 1990, would have constituted a solid 'Rae NDP' provincial gain, had Brampton been split into 'East/West' rather than 'North/South' ridings--yet within a few years that NDP compatibility had devolved into a vaguely race-triggered Reform/Tory populism, and it hasn't really snapped out of that lean ever since (albeit with an ironic baton-pass over time from the 'we won't vote for Libs with turbans' demo to the 'Jason Kenney multiculturals'--hey, even Bramalea's demographically 'evolving') Even in the recent Jagmeet Singh-inflected federal and provincial elections, Bramalea's been the NDP's weakest link--though the ghost of strong links past must have given him a bottom-feeding boost--but it's also Bramalea that got Bal Gosal elected, so little wonder that he's running here. With a boost from Parm Gill's Springdale polls to the W, this is about as '905 multiethnic Conservative' as a seat can get, where even the residual blue-collar Reform-a-Tory whites might as well be just another 'ethnicity'--however, wipe away the Harper gloss and the 'natural condition' here might be closer to a Scarborough 3-way. Just warning you.
15 03 30 Fairview Resident
This new seat is composed of 3 seats that went Liberal by small margins in 2008 when the Tories won Ontario by 5.4, and went Tory when the party won the province by 20%. Polls now show a horserace in Ontario. Gosal has a minor Ministry (State for Sport), but is the incumbent in just under half the new riding. The Liberals have a solid candidate in Ramesh Sangha. Gosal may have been effective enough to beat the spread, but we'll have to see whether either of the parties can establish a significant lead in Ontario.
15 03 30 JC
Bal Gosal is a minister but the Liberals are just about even with the Tories in Ontario for support, with the average polling right now the liberals would win this by 7 points which is the tightest margin of any of the Brampton Ridings, this is probably the seat the Tories will need to defend.
15 03 29 monkey
Certainly the re-distribution makes this a lot more favourable for Bal Gosal but still too early to tell as last election was a high water mark for the Tories and I suspect the non-Tory vote will likely coalesce around the Liberals so in all likelihood this will probably back whichever party wins the next election.

Navigate to Canada 2015 Home | Provincial Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2015
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
© Justice Quest Communications, 1999-2015 - Email Webmaster