Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-29 20:52:28

Constituency Profile


Crewson, Ed

Tilson, David Allan

Urekar, Nancy

Yazbek, Rehya

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (209/211 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

David Tilson


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15 09 30 Craig Hubley
http://www.strategicvoting.ca/details1.php recommends a Green vote here. Very interseting. If Greens were convinced to swap into this riding from others nearby, that could be one Green MP and several Opposition MPs. It is actually pretty foolish not to do this, as Greens are very willing to swap if they think there's a chance. I can't find a riding level poll though to validate this and I don't know if it depended on the previous candidate...
15 08 29 A.S.
What's interesting here is that not only was it the only Ontario seat where no non-Conservative got over 15% in 2011, it's also the only one where the Greens earned second-place bragging rights--and given the present non-throwaway (and Dufferin-County-naturalized) calibre of Liberal candidate, one wonders if it's another cue for the Craig Hubley crowd to chip in about vote swap strategy and what have you. But fragmentation remains Tilson's friend; maybe the Dufferin County vote-swap fantasy *will* come true, but in the present climate, who knows whether the 410-spurred encroachment of Bramptonburbia (Valleywood, Mayfield West et al) might result in token inward leakage of *NDP* strength, of all things. Still, it says something that the defeat of David Tilson is plausible *at all*--though not so plausible that I'd deny a CPC prediction.
15 08 21 full nane
Despite Tilson's strong roots here, Crewson's campaign has signs all across rural and urban areas in Orangeville, Mono, Amaranth and Shelburne - that's momentum that I have not seen from Tilson's campaign (who may be suffering from a Shy Tory effect). Watch out for Google results which show Mulcair as the top googled leader in Dufferin Caledon and a stronger than average Green Party (which has historically filled the vacuum for political change in this riding when the NDP and the Grits were weaker).
15 08 07 R.O.
David Tilson has held this riding federally since 2004 , it's a fairly reliable conservative riding. It also avoided voting for Ontario liberals in 2014 provincially, one of only a few ridings near the gta that didn't that year. Even with a township mayor as a candidate I can't see the liberals making enough gains here and area he was mayor of is only a small part of overall riding . the greens are also very active in this riding and came in second oddly enough in 2011.
15 08 03 Jim Collins
From what I've been seeing in Dufferin-Caledon, the Liberals have really built a solid ground game and appeal to voters in the more 'urban' centres (Orangeville, Bolton etc.) I don't see the cons anywhere, and Crewson/Libs have been running an admirable campaign. D-C is traditionally Conservative, but I think the Liberals will surprise in this riding.
15 03 29 monkey
Like pretty much all small town/rural ridings, this should be an easy Conservative win. Interestingly enough the Greens are strong here, but I cannot see them winning as pushing the Conservatives below 50% will be enough of a challenge and impossible below 45% thus while the second place finisher might be interesting, this will be an easy Tory win.
15 03 28 D.M.
Rural Ontario riding that goes Conservative both federally and provincially by wide margins. If the CPC were to lose this kind of riding they would be facing a wipe off of the political map.
The Liberals actually finished fourth here in 2011, while I expect they'll improve on that it won't be nearly enough.
Easy Tilson and CPC hold.
15 03 27 Jason
There is some growth in areas like Orangeville and Caledon that can be favourable for the Liberals, but Dufferin-Caledon is still a Conservative stronghold. Besides David Tilson has been the provincial and then federal representative here since 1990.

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