Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-08-25 16:09:00

Constituency Profile


Parsons, Leslie

Prout, Bill

Tilson, David

Van Leeuwen, Ard

David Tilson

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • dufferin-peel-wellington-grey (155/203 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


    Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

    11 04 06 Tony Ducey
    This was always a good Tory riding, they hold onto it here in 2011.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    This has long been a solid Tory riding and in fact I don't think this has ever gone Liberal either provincially or federally when the right was united. Only when the right is split can the Liberals win here which is not the case now.
    11 03 28 C.A.B.
    Garth Turner almost certainly wouldn't have won here, but he would have made the race more interesting, at least. Without him, it's probably going to be one of the quietest seats in Ontario. There are a few lingering questions, though. Will the Liberal vote recover from their under 20% nadir with a new and less controversial candidate? Will the Greens maintain or improve upon their impressive 17% share, their third-best result in Ontario and sixth-best nationwide? Well, whatever may come, it's all good news for Tilson.
    09 10 13 Gone Fishing
    Loud Mouth Garth Turner's decision to cut bait and run speaks volumes. If he had a realistic shot he'd stick it out and cross the floor to the NDP or hell even the bloc.
    Garth is all about headlines and shady deals the people of Dufferin-Caledon and the rest of us are better off today now that he has announced he is resigning his supposed nomination which wasn't yet official.
    Now that I am done my Turner rant (and I was never happy to see him in the Conservative caucus for a minute) I say it would be tough for anyone else to chip into this lead unless they were a real popular figure and had some party momentum on side.
    With that I say it must be hard to get a candidate in this riding for the Liberals - there are only so many old warhorses left for them to tap a shoulder to. They might have to actually ask the local riding association to nominate a LOCAL candidate!
    09 09 07 A.S.
    DufCal wouldn't have been much of a Liberal prospect anyway, but Rebecca Finch's renegade-blogger pratfalls drove the Grit tally below the 20% mark and only 2 1/s points above Green--and she subsequently affirmed why-so by vocally fleeing the party. As for Garth Turner: affiliation aside, he *does* suit the riding--but with his present affiliation, the best he can quixotically hope for is a Schreyer NDP '06 result. And he ain't an Ed Schreyer. And he might have to whack away an indy Becky Finch, to boot...
    09 08 31 MF
    For reasons I don't understand, Garth Turner has sought the Liberal nomination in Dufferin-Caledon, which is a tougher riding to crack than his old riding of Halton. This is already a very safe Conservative seat and the Liberals were humiliated here last time. They will certainly do much better than the 19% they got last time, but it won't be nearly enough.
    09 08 30 R.O.
    This is one of the most blue ridings politically in Ontario and also oddly the place where conservative turned liberal Garth Turner is planning a comeback. but it all seems like the wrong riding for that to me as David Tilson has represented this riding at the provincial and federal levels since the 90's and much more well known in the riding than Turner and Tilson is generally well liked in the riding. Plus Garth Turner is known as being a controversial figure politically after what went on last parliament and not known for doing anything locally in the riding . His old halton riding seemed more favourable to the liberals i'd say so this really to me seems like an odd place to attempt a comeback. Plus the greens run very strong here and taking votes away from the liberals it appears and there previous green candidate is running again from what i have read and he will run a strong campaign as well.
    09 08 24 wyatt
    While Tilson's total votes dropped from '06 to '08, his percentage of the vote climbed. The Liberals bled more than 6,000 votes. Tilson's 14,000 vote spread puts this one out of reach for the Grits.

    Navigate to Canada 2011 Home | Provincial Index | Submission

    Canada Federal Election - 2011
    Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
    © Milton Chan, 1999-2011 - Email Webmaster