Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Hamilton Mountain

Prediction Changed
2015-03-21 12:46:20

Constituency Profile


Aman, Raheem

Burt, Shaun

Caton, Andrew James

Duvall, Scott

Enos, Jim

Miles, Al

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 3580.80%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Hamilton Mountain
   (205/205 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Chris Charlton


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15 08 23 A.S.
As a candidate, Scott Duvall is a symbol of the federal NDP's newfound 'imperial' confidence--a far cry from the likes of Chris Charlton and Wayne Marston running over and over as so-branded perennial lost causes. And by extension, Hamilton Mountain has come (or rather, came in advance) to be a symbol of how the NDP conquered Ontario suburbia--long before the Orange Crush, orange signs commonly dotted front lawns south of the Linc in a way that left-leaning Bramptonians or Mississaugans could only envy. And 2011's coup de grace being how the Grit's ex-MPP cabmin 'star candidate' Marie Bountrogianni wound up with a '1993 PC/NDP incumbent' result instead--how tables have turned...
15 08 14 jeff316
Boom! That's the sound of Hamilton Mountain going from horse-race to no-race. Duvall is a real meat and potatoes politician - enough of a progressive for the lefties, enough of a moustache for the union crowd, enough of a Dadbod for the suburban families - heck, this guy creamed conservative polls as a local councillor. There is a reason that the Conservatives and Liberals haven't nominated candidates even two weeks into the election: because Scott Duvall running for the NDP pretty much nullifies any chance of a race in a incumbent-free riding that all assumed was up for grabs.
15 06 04 R.O.
Even without Chris Charlton running again for the ndp here I feel Hamilton has become too much of an ndp area for this riding to switch parties at this time. It might be a closer race than 2011 or not its tough to say but likely to stay ndp.
15 04 01 ML
Now that the NDP nominated well-liked local councillor Scott Duvall I'm going to give the advantage to the NDP. Duvall is more adept at speaking to the two car garage-suburban sensibilities of Mountain residents than the other NDP contender, labour activist Bryan Adamczyk.
15 03 28 monkey
I wouldn't call this quite yet. While I would give the NDP the edge, the Liberals could win this with the right candidate and right platform. A Tory win seems highly unlikely nonetheless they seem to consistently get in an around the 30% mark regardless of whether its a good or bad election meaning if they got a perfect three way split it is possible, but extremely unlikely they would slip up the middle.
15 03 27 Dr Bear
I'm not so sure this is going to be an easy NDP hold. With Chris Charlton's resignation, this open seat could be challenged by a decent candidate. I think we should wait until we see who's offering before making a definitive call. Remember, prior to 2006, this was safely in the hands of the Liberals and polling seems to suggest numbers akin to the mid-2000's in Ontario.
15 03 19 Craig Hubley
NDP hold. NDP numbers don't look good nationwide nor in Ontario, but in this riding, the Liberals don't have enough grassroots to challenge hard.
The big Liberal push will be elsewhere, leaving the locals to take this one for the team. It would be surprising to see Trudeau even come here.

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