Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Hamilton Mountain

Prediction Changed
2011-04-27 08:49:00

Constituency Profile


Adamiec, Henryk

Anderson, Terry

Bountrogianni, Marie

Brotherston, Stephen

Charlton, Chris

Enos, Jim

Chris Charlton

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • hamilton-mountain (208/212 Polls)
  • hamilton-west (15/235 Polls)
  • stoney-creek (5/210 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 29 jeff316
    Well I've been pretty adamant that Bountrogianni will topple Charlton. Bountrogianni is widely liked and respected - she's the type of politician who needs to re-enter the political arena - she's not the type to risk losing her 'aura' by running in an election she's not going to win. But if the NDP rise in the polls is going to help anywhere it is here. It's possible that Charlton could survive, particularly if the Conservative vote fails to peak. This will be very very very tight - I still think Bountrogianni will win but anything could happen. If Marie loses, her political career is over.
    11 04 26 MF
    I'm calling this for the NDP. Even Nanos whose polling numbers which were gleefully cited by as a barrage of Liberal partisans here as evidence that the NDP vote in Ontario is collapsing to the Liberals now have the NDP back to their '08 vote, while Angus Reid and Ekos now have them in the 20s. Marie Boutrogianni may have a high profile but the Liberals got just 20% of the vote last time and without any significant swing to the Liberals . If the NDP loses this seat it will go Tory not Liberal.
    11 04 25 binriso
    The NDP only polled 18% provincewide last time and took this seat easily. They are pretty close to that now. The Conservative/United Right never had much more than 16000 votes here and with the NDP close to 23000 they can afford to give a little bit up. The Liberals have a star candidate, but people said that last time about Banham too and he lost huge, not to mention DiIanni lost huge next door to the NDP as well.
    11 04 20 tony br
    This one will be a who can get the vote out--NDP--versus a who do you love on the mountain--Lib
    I honestly cannot see the CPC being in play here---the signs seem to indicate a close Lib-NDP race
    This riding is slowly changing away from the union--steelworker type riding to a more affluent mix and regionally the NDP are down but that probably does not mean anything yet.
    11 04 20 Teddy Boragina
    On the math, this is an NDP-CPC battle. Math, however, does not account for a strong Liberal candidate.
    11 04 18 Swing Voter
    @Southpaw Pundit -actually the NDP are not polling in the 20's in Ontario. According to Nanos Research they have gone from 18.4% in Ontario on Friday to 17.1% on Sunday and now to 14.5% on Monday. The post-debate bounce is fading and the NDP are not known for closing well. Sure they are up in Quebec but those numbers have zero relevance on Hamilton mountain. At 14.5%, the NDP are down nearly 10% of what they got in the 2008 Federal Election in Ontario (23%). I don't have to tell you that at 14.5% in Ontario, the NDP will lose a lot of Ontario ridings. The Mountain included. In recent days I've seen a ton of Liberal signs go up on the Mountain. The local candidate, Marie Bountrogianni, has a very well respected name in the community. As for the Conservatives ....seriously folks. In the last 50 years, the Conservatives have represented Hamilton Mountain for 2 1/2 years. Yes 2 1/2 years out of 50. They are not winning the Mountain. They didn't win it when Dion was the Liberal leader and an unknown local candidat
    11 04 18 SouthpawPundit
    I'm sure if this were 1984 the Tories would have had a chance of winning this, but is there really any way the NDP loses in places like Hamilton and Sudbury when we're polling in the mid 20s?
    11 04 16 jeff316
    Part of the problem here for the NDP is that their recent breakthrough in Ontario has been with very middling candidates. The Marstons, Charltons, Thibeaults, Allens, etc may be hard-workers and good candidates but aren't particularly strong long-lasting MP material. Hamilton-Mountain was a surprise in 2006, just like Sudbury and Welland were in 2008. Marston will likely hold on in Hamilton East due to the party's strength there. The NDP could have likely held these type of seats had their breakthrough been with stronger candidates with long-term incumbency material. But people like those are hard to find, particularly for the fourth party.
    11 04 16 Art
    Marie B will grab this one. Locals know she's fantastic and brilliant. Either way it's not on Harper's radar and his illusive majority.
    11 04 15 Michael Berg
    This is a riding that could easily go any way. I have a hard time believing these 'experts' on other sites, claiming the NDP is 'strongly in the lead'. Charlton is a popular incumbent, in what has become an NDP city. That being said, she is running against two well-known challengers. Marie Bountragianni was a very well-respected MPP. Terry Anderson was a well-liked city councillor. Most would say NDP or Libs win this riding. I say CPC wins for two reasons: 1)Libs and NDP split the left-vote and 2)South Mountain is growing and is increasingly Conservative (looking at past results). CPC in surprise!
    11 04 15 Hamiltonian
    I really believe that Marie Bountrogianni can defeat Chris Charlton. She is a much stronger candidate and more effective politician. Her experience far outweighs anything Chris Charlton has ever done, in my opinion, and she has proven her dedication to the Hamilton Mountain and its residents. After the beating that Hamilton has taken over the past couple of years, both with the stadium and steel industry, I think its clear that NDP are ineffective representation in Hamilton. Marie has proven - I cite specifically her involvement to keep the Henderson Hospital from downsizing - that she is willing to fight for institutions that are important to Hamiltonians.
    11 04 14
    The LIberal Candidate has defeated the NDP twice in the past..This local issue will carry the riding for the Liberals
    11 04 13 SouthpawPundit
    Nobody is denying that the good doctor is a very strong candidate for the Liberal Party, but to compare this election to the Ontario elections of 1999 and 2003 is absurd. Many Ontarians still had very bad feelings towards the Rae government in 1999 and many traditionally NDP voters were pressured to back the McGuinty Liberals to help in a failed attempt to defeat the Mike Harris government. 2003 saw a Liberal landslide to the detriment of both the NDPs and the Tories. Obviously, Liberal landslides occur in political climates that are extremely inconducive toward any meaningful NDP gains.
    To further illustrate this point, when the federal Liberals won a landslide victory in 1993, the NDP was not even able to hold Vancouver East, a riding that's been held by the CCF or the NDP for 67 of the 76 years that its existed. Now that the Liberal Party is much weaker and the NDP is no longer reeling from Audrey McLaughlin's ineffective leadership (in fact, the Liberal Party is now the one with the leadership issues) and from the unpopularity of its BC and Ontario governments of the time (which are now governed by unpopular Liberals, and most voters are too ill informed to know that the Ontario and BC Liberals are not affiliated with the federal party), anybody who does not assume that Libby Davies will trounce her Liberal challengers by 40 points or so is delusional.
    While Chris Charlton is not Libby Davies and Vancouver East is not Hamilton Mountain, it is only the most jaded of partisans who fail to see that the Liberals face an uphill battle against NDP incumbents in the current political climate, no matter how strong the candidate may be.
    11 04 13 tony br
    Marie is going to win here--she has a great ground game-- and I'm a Conservative --but she is far too popular on the mountain--unfortunately the Libs will not be in power so it really does not help Hamilton anymore than Chris Charlton
    11 04 13
    Dr. Marie Bountrogianni beat Mrs. Chris Charlton twice;
    In the 1999 provincial election with 8454 votes difference and in 2003 provincial election with 11507 votes difference.
    In 1999 she got 40.3% of the votes(19067)and in 2003 51.8% of the votes(23524)
    11 04 12
    Provincial Results
    June 3, 1999 Marie Bountrogianni 40.3% 19067votes
    Chris Charlton 22.4% 10622votes
    47397 electors (62% turnout)
    Oct 2, 2003 Marie Bountrogianni 51.8% 23524votes
    Chris Charlton 26.4% 12017votes
    45420 electors (59% turnout)
    2007 Liberal 37.2% 17387votes
    NDP 33.5% 15653votes
    46687 electors (53.3% turnout)
    Federal Results
    2006 Chris Chalrton 37.2% 21970votes Liberal 31.7% 18704
    Conservative 27% 15915votes
    58954 electors (67.2% turnout)

    2008 Chris Charlton 43.4% 22796votes
    Liberal 20% 10531votes
    Conservative 30.5% 16010votes
    52514 electors (59.3% turnout)
    The 2008 results are statistically insignificant for two reasons;
    1) the contest was not between Chris Charlton and Marie Bountrogianni and,
    2) a large percent of Libs did not vote – see difference between 2006 and 2008:
    18704 – 10531 = 8173 libs did not vote
    NDP only increased vote by 826 electors. (21970 - 22796 = 826)
    Dr. Bountrogianni has always held great respect with the people of Hamilton and she has the ability and credentials to do the job very well, as she has proven in the past. And as you can see from the above data, she inspires the confidence in people to come out to vote. She was able to bring 23524 people out to voted for her in 2003 and will do it again in 2011.
    11 04 12 George
    ‘Even if there are crazy local things going on (which there aren't) It would be almost impossible to call it a solid Liberal seat.’
    The candidacy of an incredibly popular former provincial cabinet minister, who's defeated the sitting MP numerous times, counts as a ‘crazy local thing going on’. Strong candidates are able to flip ridings all the time. On the numbers, the Winnipeg seat the Liberals just took was far more difficult than Hamilton Mountain, but they ran the right candidate. Same deal here.
    11 04 12 AD
    I've got to say this one is confusing how the site is calling it.
    The NDP/Lib vote last time was 22,796 (44%) for the NDP against 10,531 (20%) for the Liberals.
    Even if there are crazy local things going on (which there aren't) It would be almost impossible to call it a solid Liberal seat.
    11 04 11 Aidan77
    It's laughable reading the previous poster go on about where Bountrogianni lives. ‘She doesn't even live in the riding’. Chris Charlton tweeted that on Friday. Interesting. To note, Bountrogianni's residence was the same as when she defeated Chris Charlton in her previous two election campaigns (handily I may add). Charlton is clearly in trouble. ‘Chris Charlton is an excellend MP’. Says who? She has delivered no federal dollars to the area. Oh wait a minute, Charlton does claim in her tax payer funded newsletter that she delivered $30 million in federal funding for the Pan Am Games stadium renos at Ivor Wynne. And if you believe she did that, I have some ice cubes to sell you ;)
    11 04 11
    Chris Charlton won handily last time and has been an excellent MP for Hamilton Mountain, can't see any reason why the people of this riding would kick her out. The Liberal candidate doesn't even live in the riding for goodness sake!
    11 04 10 MF
    With Marie Bountrogianni running, this is the most likely pickup for the Liberals in Hamilton. However they have quite the ‘mountain’ to climb, as Chris Charlton won this by a very wide margin last time and the Liberals got knocked to third place and just 20% of the vote. Even with a Liberal upswing and a much stronger candidate, it won't be easy to re-take it. I'm giving the edge to the NDP.
    I should also point out that Nanos is not the last word in polling, he was way off last time and all the other pollsters (including Angus Reid which came closest to calling it in '08) have the NDP polling in its ‘natural’ range.
    11 04 10 AJVAN
    Truth be told - Everyone loves Marie. Whether LIB - NDP or CONS - she is liked and the people of Hamilton Mountain have seen her get results.
    Whether she was in opposition or government she delivered. The fact is that without Marie's help the Henderson would have gone and when she was a cabinet minister we received a better, newer Juravinski hospital. Chris has not delivered anything, nothing for college and scraps for other mountain projects. Marie knows this riding better than anyone.
    NDP support was strongest around the north end where hospital is. Liberal voters who stayed home last election will come out and you will see NDP and CONS votes go to Marie.
    EP.org - you called this one right.
    11 04 09 Aidan77
    Sorry Dipper staffers but Nik Nanos has the NDP at 8 percent in Ontario. 8 percent! The NDP has declined for seven straight days in his poll. His polls are highly accurate. Chris Charlton and likely Wayne Marsden are done as dinner due to their Party's Ontario standing if this continues. Ask Liberals how great Stephane Dion was to their fortunes.
    11 04 09 joey joe joe
    Marco Ricci's point on the Nano's trends are right it is only half way through the campaign and you can move it back to being in play if the NDP numbers recover but so far the trend is clearly Liberals taking their support.
    11 04 09 Nick
    Bit premature to call this for the Liberals. Similar predictions have been made in the past but the NDP have still ended up on top against ‘star’ Liberal candidates. The NDP vote may be dropping in Ontario, but Hamilton - even the Mountain - is a unique situation. Not prepared to predict anything at this point, other than to say completely writing off the NDP - at least right now - is a bit foolish.
    11 04 08 DL
    This will be an easy NDP hold. Charlton won by 6,000 votes last time and despite the zillions of posts on this site predicting a Liberal win in 2008 - the Liberal candidate was a very distant third - 13,000 votes behind the NDP. Most polls show NDP support across Ontario unchanged from 2008 while Liberal support is even lower (Ipsos Apr. 8 NDP 17%, Forum April 7 NDP 18%, Angus Reid Apr. 6 NDP 19%, Environics April 6 NDP 21%). If the NDP loses here - it will be to the Toreis not the Liberals.
    11 04 08 Marco Ricci
    Yes, the Nanos polls show the Liberals gaining and the NDP losing ground, but we are only halfway through the campaign so it's probably too soon to predict a seat is ‘lost’. Being only half-way through means that the polls can change back and forth again between now and election day. It will be interesting to see whether the Liberals are successful here, because Ignatieff is holding a big rally here today, and Harper also held one.
    11 04 08
    The NDP vote in Ontario has gone down from 23% to 11%(Nanos)..this seat is lost
    11 04 07 MH
    This one will be fascinating to watch on election night, because any one of the Conservative, Liberal, and NDP candidates can win this with as little as 34-35% of the popular vote. Marie Bountrogianni's candidacy is a plus for the Liberals, so is the evidence of growing Liberal strength in Ontario. But Chris Charlton was almost 7,000 ahead of the Conservative candidate in 2008 and more than 12,000 ahead of the Liberal, so the riding is his to lose. TCTC for now, though leaning NDP.
    11 04 05 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    The polling trend in Ontario is very clear. Liberals are consuming the NDP vote and eroding the CPC vote. With a close race and a strong candidate, it seems that the Liberals are not poised to take this riding from the NDP. Not happening in the other Hamilton ridings though.
    11 04 06 Tony Ducey
    Should be close but I have this going to the Liberals, expect a tight 3-way race here between the Liberals, Conservatives and NDP.
    11 04 03 jeff316
    NDP support is a lot weaker on the Mountain than in central or east Hamilton. Charlton is a much weaker candidate than Bountrogianni. Bountrogianni is likely just enough for the Liberals to win, assuming the Conservative vote holds. But if Bountrogianni doesn't win, then this could signal a longer-term shift in voting patterns toward more solid NDP support.
    11 04 02 M. Lunn
    An interesting three way race here. Marie Bountrogianni is running for the Liberals so this should definitely make this more competitive for them after a dismal showing. Likewise it appears the Liberals have been so far better at picking up soft NDP support than soft Tory support so it is possible the Tories could slip up the middle here with as little as 33%. I would give the NDP an edge, but I would not be surprised if either the Liberals or Tories took this.
    11 01 27 Marco Ricci
    Former Liberal MPP and Cabinet Minister Marie Bountrogianni has announced she will be running for the nomination here. This could give the Liberals their best shot at taking back the riding since Beth Phinney retired. However, the Liberal numbers have been very poor in all 3 Hamilton ridings in the last 2 elections and they will still need to work hard if they want to take this one back.
    10 01 24 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Prediction change from NDP to TCTC. The Liberals have scored and picked up a well known, well liked, former MMP and cabinet minister Maria Bountrogianno. This will certainly bolster their numbers, regardless of party fortunes, not unlike what Gerald Kennedy did for the party in '08 in Parkdale-High Park. Do we think this means a Liberal/NDP race? No, we think it's now a three-way race. Our previous post comments on solid CPC support that has not moved over the better part of a decade. It should hold true once again and vote splitting on the left may allow the Torys to slip through the middle. This one will likely be called late on election night.
    11 01 14 AJVAN
    I have noticed that Chris has been sending mor householders out than normal - and she used to criticize Phinney for her 3 or 4 a year and I think I got 10 from Chris last year all with NDP logo which has never felt right to me - If the taxpayers pay for it why should it have the NDP logo???
    10 12 01 wyatt
    Charlton has added to the NDP total percentage each of the last three elections. No reason to think that we'll see a more than 7,000 vote swing here.
    10 05 22 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    R.O. that is an interesting observation re: lack of Tory growth in Hamilton Mountain. It seems to go against the trend across the province. However we have a plausible explaination. This trend you noticed is much the same as the trend in the other hamilton ridings and in the Windsor ridings. This would suggest to us that these gritty, union-bound ridings have a solid base of Conservatives who have voted that way for a long time and continue to vote Tory. The bulk of the population though, are left-leaning and voted Liberal when the NDP were in the dumps but have switched solidly to the NDP now that the Liberals are in the dumps. Whenever the Liberals regain steam, they will start eroding NDP support and eventually re-create that three-way race you mentioned (at least in this riding). Bottom line, these are not right-wing ridings at all and would need a massive vote split to ensure a Tory win. Having said that, the way we read into it, the NDP have all the ridings in a lock, since the Liberals are so down in the dumps.
    10 01 05 R.O.
    This riding typically is a 3 way race although the numbers from 08 suggest it was more of an ndp / conservative race that election over the usual liberal / ndp / conservative race. for it to return to a 3 way race the liberals would have to return to there former strength in the city of Hamilton which does not appear to be happening and they'd need a pretty big name candidate here to compete against ndp mp Chris Charlton and returning conservative candidate Terry Anderson. i do find it odd the conservative vote has stayed about the same in the riding from 04-08 at about 16000 as the party has generally grown its support in other ridings . but for the moment the ndp maintain the advantage here and it take something pretty significant for them to lose much ground in Hamilton which is becoming a bit of an ndp stronghold at the moment.
    09 11 18 binriso
    While the Conservatives will challenge here, they haven’t managed to expand their voter base beyond 16000 ever (even uniting the right only gave 17000 during the 90s) and that is why they will come up short, and by short I mean at least 4000 votes short. NDP sweep Hamilton again.
    09 11 10 A.S.
    For the record, the ?big name Liberal candidate? name I've heard bandied about is that of former MPP/cabmin Marie Bountrogianni.
    09 11 07 ar
    ‘Look for a of a big name candidate which will bring Liberal voters who stayed home in 2008 out to the polls. Chris is in trouble.’
    Repeat after me ‘Terry Whitehead is not a big name candidate. More than half of his ward is in Hamilton Centre and he is nowhere near as popular as Bill Kelly who couldn't pull things off with Beth Phinney's legacy fresh in mind and a no-name, no-campaign, Conservative candidate.’
    Repeat until fixed in mind.
    Replace everything up to ‘and’ with ‘X is not a big name candidate’ if Terry Whitehead is not the candidate.
    09 10 04 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    You just gotta love these predictions. ?We don't know who. We don't know how. Heck, we don't even have a candidate yet. But by golly geeze, we're gonna knock off the two-time incumbent and win this riding!? Sad to say we see such vacuous postings every electionprediction-go-round. Despite our mockery we think the Liberals could have a chance here. As could the CPC. The thing is, the NDP have held it for two elections, increasing their margin in '08. Now we're in bad economic times and this is an industrial city that was hit bad. With the NDP machine (both provincial and federal) helping out we don't see this riding flipping.
    09 10 03 Gone Fishing
    Others here will know from past posts that I am a partisan conservative but I had to weigh in her supporting the NDP candidate and dispute some comments here and in other ridings about the mysterious and outrageous claim of a Liberal sit-out.
    Here's a little tip for all the Liberal deniers out there. When you polled 3rd at 10 % behind second place and that is 23% behind the winner your supporters didn't sit out. They went elsewhere.
    The number of votes counted the last time the Liberals won this riding was about 1000 less than in 2008 so please keep dreaming that there is nothing wrong in Liberal land and sooner or later the rest of us will all come to our senses.
    With more than one poll now showing conservative leads in Ontario (14 points in today's Gus Reid poll) the liberals are not going to make up vote here. And, I'm not saying the Conservatives will win or even place second but I am saying the Libs aren't close to beating NDP here.
    09 09 29 David Y.
    Charlton won by 3172 votes in 2006, and by 6786 in 2008.
    It would take a real 'star' candidate for another party to win this riding away from the NDP at this time, especially since the new Provincial NDP leader is from Hamilton.
    NDP hold!
    09 09 12 A.S.
    Hard to say with Hamilton Mountain, though ?logic? from the last two elections calls for an NDP hold. Like, if the Tories are aiming for anything like a solid majority government, they'll probably be looking to pick up a few compatible OntariNDP seats like this. Oh, the Liberals might, too, though their dismal third last time (despite the sure-bet boasts last time on behalf of Tyler Banham, many of them courtesy of I'm Always Right and his clones) could act as dissuasion...
    09 09 12 AJVAN
    Look for a of a big name candidate which will bring Liberal voters who stayed home in 2008 out to the polls. Chris is in trouble.
    09 09 02 Observer
    Chris Charlton will easily get a new term. Hamilton is now stronghold for the NDP.

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